Aspellian's Garden

Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby Musicwhiz » Mon Feb 08, 2010 2:30 pm

To be fair, share buybacks have their merits; but it's on a case-by-case basis.

No "one size fits all" scenario for buybacks.
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby winston » Mon Feb 08, 2010 2:42 pm

When we were discussing share buybacks, we were not saying whether the company is good or not. We were saying that it can give a shortist a big headache if his timing was not so good and shorted just when the company is doing the buyback.
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby Aspellian » Mon Feb 08, 2010 2:57 pm

Now that market is in a correction, been trying to come up with a list of stocks that may benefit when market recovers.

- Ezra:
TA:
Recent High of $2.63, Recent Low: S$2.04, Current - S$2.11, Support at S$2.04 (24% down from the recent high)
Next support at S$1.85, then S$1.65

Positive TA: seems to be supported at $2 level (previous resistance). recent market bounced up on 3rd Feb, it cheong 10% with very high vol. Either more distribution or that investment community still likes this darling.

Negative TA : But there are 2 sets of railway tracks (15th and 20th Jan and after reaching a high] which seems to suggest distribution going on (even before correction officially takes place).

FA (broad analysis/impression for catalyst or short term prospects / business impressions - not really drilling down):
- recent deals announced are quite interesting.. traditional projects are still coming onstream, but it is the Keppel/Petrovietnam/EOC deal which i find refreshing.
- seems that Ezra trying to take a new route and become an owner of FPSOs - steady cashflow...
- with Keppel also trying to diversify and reverse its downturn in O&M sector, it is ready to a stake in conversion of FPSO (abit like financing customers). so its a win-win situation. this could be the beginning of more such deals?? (at least it does get the market excited).
- still think that one day Ezra may get into upstream exploration and production (either via injection of assets or doing EPCC for its related parties holding such upstream assets)
- contribution from lift boats, deepwater units, ice-basher vessel

Negative FA:
- recent quarterly results - very bad - revenue dropped. cyclical earnings.
- high capex further down the road?
- starting up of new units, vessels like deepwater units and lift boats may result in lower margin or start-up costs
- there could be a lag of contracts coming onstream and recognise as revenue - ie, less contracts dished out during econ crisis, so now order book (of future) could be higher than projects being excuted. timing.

Other Macro
- oil price seems to be stabilising above S$65 to S$75 range
- Upstream companies may start to dish out more contracts as oil price stabilise and financing easier (or is it?). pent-up demand.
- Euro crisis another leg down? (not of my concern, i invest when market in uptrend - dun care about macro macro - not so smart to predict what Fed Chairman going to do).

Industry
- generally O&G sectors less scandals (except for Jaya's recent debt scare).
- most are either aggressively run (lots of debts) or very conservative (slow and steady eg. labroy marine)
- as most are family run biz with owners holding much shares, unlikely will do alot of hanky panky cos will lose face if find out (but 2-edge sword)

Conclusion: is it a growth stock? hmm... not in short term, but probably mid-term. anyway Ezra has reached a certain size whereby it will find it hard to grow to next level and maintain at that level consistently.
but seems to be noticed by investment crowd. remembered seeing that many funds are also their shareholders. so if market back on uptrend, could be a 20% popper...
( i hope, the more we hope, the more strength we have - but make sure you hope in the right belief) ;)

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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby Aspellian » Mon Feb 08, 2010 2:58 pm

winston wrote:When we were discussing share buybacks, we were not saying whether the company is good or not. We were saying that it can give a shortist a big headache if his timing was not so good and shorted just when the company is doing the buyback.


Noted. thanks very much! ;)

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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby kennynah » Mon Feb 08, 2010 3:00 pm

be careful not to forerun the market, thinking that the US index will correct further tonight just becos it did a significant bounce late last Fri.... and hence going along with the SGX current negative movement...

having an opinion on market direction is quite a different matter altogether... timing 1 single market is tough enough, and having to pre-empt 2 markets correlationship is near impossible...

good luck !
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby Aspellian » Mon Feb 08, 2010 3:08 pm

kennynah wrote:be careful not to forerun the market, thinking that the US index will correct further tonight just becos it did a significant bounce late last Fri.... and hence going along with the SGX current negative movement...

having an opinion on market direction is quite a different matter altogether... timing 1 single market is tough enough, and having to pre-empt 2 markets correlationship is near impossible...

good luck !


Noted! ganna spank by Mr Market many times for forerunning. now i must learn to be patient.
Dare not short now cos afraid of the bounce.

Good luck to all out there too! either averaging down, picking up bargains or creating liquidity by shorting. Huat! :lol:

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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby Aspellian » Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:33 am

Why doesnt Buffet likes stocks like Genting or many others? Because many other companies out there require lots and lots of capex (and inevitably loans) when they grow.. its a ticking timebomb. sometimes they grow so big that they must fail (think GM) because of inefficiencies and over-reliance on a car market which isnt performing well (and the company itself also in shambles to start with).

So now you ask Why Mr Buffet likes company that does simple biz with recurring cashflows (candies candies and sweet tooths). nothing too fanciful but he can sleep well.

as for me? i prefer growth and growth and I'm being heart-broken with stocks, i promise myself I will not LOVE another stock (ever again!! :lol: ). I just ride for the high and thank it for a wonderful time! ;)

(oops better not let my MRS hear this!! :lol: )

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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby millionairemind » Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:38 am

A bro - this one's for you. May you find more bulls to ride :D

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"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby LenaHuat » Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:45 am

WB likes the insurance biz v much. Why? No capex. And the greatest deal is that cash flows in long before the demand for cash outflows arise. One local company has been peddling cremation niches at $10,000 a pitch to me and my relatives. I told them that I've got another some 30 years to go. I'm not prepaying for anything.
A biz based on prepayments is actually a 'rich' biz for the entreprenaur.

Like MM, I wish U, Aspellian, many more good tidings at the bull pit too :D
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby Aspellian » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:40 am

Thanks MM and Lena for your kind wishes!

Long journey ahead but I am preparing to sow my garden/mind with good seeds on good soil. Most importantly is to have a patient heart.

I am so lucky to be surrounded by diligent farmers who are harvesting season after season! :mrgreen:

PS: Yes! - i am talking about all of you out there in this forum! :lol:

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