Aspellian's Garden

Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby Aspellian » Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:44 pm

kennynah wrote:I will invest based on these principles from now onwards!! Thank God I learnt something after all the trials. I will be humble and learn more new things.


above is a great awakening that happens to everyone who is serious about trading/investing... and perhaps this may come as a surprise to you... and not meant to be a party pooper... in this game, the trials never end ... i say this becos, you will (i can almost guarantee you) again find yourself in difficult situations from time to time.. the key is not to give up...but to hone the skills even more....

if you begin thinking you have had all the lessons, then this is one lesson you have not yet learnt...the lesson that there is alot more to playing this market then simply getting the theories right...

this is a constant challenge for me too... the market has hardly given me a break all these while...


Hi Kenny-Bro,

Welcome to my humble garden! ;)
Thanks for your advice. I couldnt agree more that the trials will be more intense the more i practise "the way"! I will keep your advice in my mind always. I will constantly remind myself to be humble and keep on learning from all of you guys here and elsewhere as well as from our Dearest Friend - Mr Market! :lol:

PROMISE, PASSION, PEACE, POWER, PURPOSE, PLAN, PATIENCE, PERSEVERANCE, PROTECTION
DELIGHT, DISCIPLINE, DILIGENT, DETERMINATION, DESIRE

"Its not whether you're right or wrong thats important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." - Warren Buffet
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby kennynah » Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:45 pm

winston....hahahaha.....

u r so right...over confidence is almost certain a recipe for disaster...

but confidence is needed in this game... no confidence, one will be swayedby the market left, right and centre....
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby Aspellian » Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:57 pm

OE2008 wrote:A,

One thing missing though is, I believe, the single most important factor in determining overall success.
It is in managing your own emotion. Each man/women has to kill his/her own snakes when it comes to making market decisions. In the market, it is all about probabilities as we are not dealing with certainty. The choices are easy on paper only. Many a time, one will be confronted with questions such as is it too late to sell (obviously already late if you have to ask this question but is it too late taking losses) or is it too late to buy (the market has gone up so much?)
I am still trying to manage my emotion. As a self assessment, I currently have an E minus :x. as good as F.


Hi OE2008,

Welcome to my humble garden! ;)

You are too humble! :P
Thanks for pointing out the emotion quotient - indeed we should constantly remind ourselves that we must NOT be slave to our emotions but instead to choose the right path and follow the right master. ;)

There are always those "voices" that persuade you to make the wrong moves at precisely the "right time" - and allow me to present to you <drum-rolls ----- da-da!!> Mr Hope and Mr Greed, the most outstanding tag-team champions the world have ever seen
- whom double-handlely are responsible for the many after-effect heartaches affecting millions over the century!

Image
Image

Let this be a constant reminder to each of us! Thanks OE2008!

PROMISE, PASSION, PEACE, POWER, PURPOSE, PLAN, PATIENCE, PERSEVERANCE, PROTECTION
DELIGHT, DISCIPLINE, DILIGENT, DETERMINATION, DESIRE

"Its not whether you're right or wrong thats important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." - Warren Buffet
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby Aspellian » Mon Aug 24, 2009 10:12 pm

"Whoever GOD wants to destroy, HE first make him confident and arrogant" :p

You said the most important thing in investing and in life!!

Many examples indicate that those who are arrogant and over-confidence will ultimately be destroyed...

- Brilliant scholars/Nobel Prize winner of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) in 1998 collapsed
- Civilisations past gone
- Dictators/past leaders who self-admire their "far-reaching power" (i'm sure you can name many many of such people!)
- Even businessmen who self-admire and have potraits of themselves in their offices

Some literature will argue that purpose of crisis is to destroy such people and humble them... eg. AFC, Dot-com, Great Depression, even now the Great REcession...

On the filp side, what happens to those who are humble, always ready to admit their mistakes and contributes to societies...
eg. Warren Buffet, Bill Gates and even George Soros (he donates alot to charity).

PROMISE, PASSION, PEACE, POWER, PURPOSE, PLAN, PATIENCE, PERSEVERANCE, PROTECTION
DELIGHT, DISCIPLINE, DILIGENT, DETERMINATION, DESIRE

"Its not whether you're right or wrong thats important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." - Warren Buffet
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby kennynah » Mon Aug 24, 2009 10:13 pm

George Soros

:?: :?: humble man ??? sure or not??
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby Aspellian » Mon Aug 24, 2009 11:16 pm

kennynah wrote:George Soros

:?: :?: humble man ??? sure or not??


I remembered reading a book on psychology of investments which talked about the "flip-side" of George Soros who gave lots to charity. But he is hate by many as he take big bets and short the market. Main-stream media view him as a villian.
I could be wrong. ;)

PROMISE, PASSION, PEACE, POWER, PURPOSE, PLAN, PATIENCE, PERSEVERANCE, PROTECTION
DELIGHT, DISCIPLINE, DILIGENT, DETERMINATION, DESIRE

"Its not whether you're right or wrong thats important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." - Warren Buffet
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby kennynah » Tue Aug 25, 2009 12:00 am

charity handouts attract tax relieve...
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby Aspellian » Wed Aug 26, 2009 5:33 pm

Bananas - very healthy fruit
- Ho Bee - all the hype of property boom + Sentosa IR = double joy for Ho Bee. Results will be fabulous this year. price/vol very strong even when world indexes weak, fundamental rules! so obvious, so what will happen? let the musical chair game begin; just dun be the last to hold on to durian and without a chair! enjoy the game!

- Ezion - Big Aussie Project - Gorgon LNG - largest LNG project in Aussie-land (world?) - Chevron/BP/Shell project. recent news that Gorgon LNG going closer and closer to full authority approval. once that admin hurdle cleared, work will officially start. prob more contract extension to be announced? Also have lifting boats coming onsteam this year and next to lift the share price higher and reduce the historical PE of 70+

- Rotary Eng - breakthrough to international bigboys playground - US$600mm project. recent hype on saudi refinery projects - everyone get so excited... PEC (new IPO) also flying like nobody's biz. but still think rotary is leader of the pack. everywhere you see O&G articles - flavour of the month. oil price strong. good for all.

- Epure - crisis allows us to show which water stocks are pretenders and which are healthy kids - Epure stands out - and moving onto Saudi project (1st overseas project). Resistance at $0.60

- Ausgroup - Being linked to Gorgon LNG as well (just like Ezion) - potentially may hit jackpot. It has aussie fabrication plant, major nationalistic projects usually require local content - so Ausgroup has geographical adv. The past year share price weakened as certain project got cancelled and retendered, worst seems to to be over?

- Ezra - transforming. MW done great analysis. i did background check on its "fishy" deal with STP - could be family related but positive outcome - Ezra may move on to be an integrated O&G company if they buy over STP which found gas field recently... pure speculation.

- YZJiang - amazingly growing earnings vs cosco. CFO on massage-chair massaging accounts or CEO super-fit that runs marathons and managed to turn around company? shareprice action strong.

- Tat Hong - PE invested 10%. Venturing into China. share price weak lei... interest short-live.

- Yanlord - premium property developer in China. proxy to CHina indexes? Yanlord seems to gyrate with China markets. if China market breaks, Yanlord could thread down as well... but risk of shorting fundamentally strong stock.

Pineapple stocks
- Cosco - order cancellations, revenue dropping, margins dropping even more. mysterious hand holding cosco at $1.20... if market breaks, dun think cosco can defy gravity.
- Oceanus - expectations of high revenue and profits not materialising... accounting valuation gains.

Fermented eggs (turnaround play)
Jaya - recently got big issues with loan refinancing, restructuring costs, write-down/impairments of vessels etc, share price dropped jia luck. Management do an OSIM and write-off a big time. will want to see next 1-2Qs whether profits are back and impairments stop.
but will monitor to see whether the rotten egg can be fermented well, if so, then dun waste, still can eat with porridge. and when market dropped big time, jaya also drop, then when market turn, yum yum liao!

(vested in some)

PROMISE, PASSION, PEACE, POWER, PURPOSE, PLAN, PATIENCE, PERSEVERANCE, PROTECTION
DELIGHT, DISCIPLINE, DILIGENT, DETERMINATION, DESIRE

"Its not whether you're right or wrong thats important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." - Warren Buffet
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby Aspellian » Wed Aug 26, 2009 10:42 pm

Read from another thread of Jeremy Grantham's wisdom of investing:

1. A mixture of overconfidence and an overeagerness to be busy. There are, therefore, far too many decisions made.

<overconfidence and arrogance - as mentioned earlier - Heaven will definitely humble you>

2. A failure to differentiate between high and low confidence and therefore between major and minor bets. Managers are either risk takers or conservative. A better solution is to be conservative almost all the time, but take large risks when the fat pitch finally arrives.

<couldnt agree more>

3. A fixation on the short-term. This is reinforced by daily performance feedback and by a need to regularly impress clients. It also equates with high turnover. The irony is that most important factors are easier to predict long-term than short-term.

The effect of these mistakes, Grantham writes, is "high turnover, high costs and a mass of small, often offsetting bets going nowhere, yet perversely an underweighting of the few powerful ideas most managers do indeed have. Clients end up overpaying for large indexed or over-diversified components of their account."

<for me i will take mid-term positions as long as trend last or cut-loss hit; so i wont trade for 5%-10% gain and jump from flower to flower - me is no bee worker> ;)

The antidote, says Grantham, is to "Build the portfolio around a few major long-term bets... The same talent will produce more this way."

<This is what i will aim to do - have a concentrated portfolio holding 3-5 stocks at any one time; for those stocks that i am super-confident after my research and with the stars aligned (industry, fundamentals, trends, CANSLIM stuff etc), i shall whack hard - but not with the emotion of over-confidence>

PROMISE, PASSION, PEACE, POWER, PURPOSE, PLAN, PATIENCE, PERSEVERANCE, PROTECTION
DELIGHT, DISCIPLINE, DILIGENT, DETERMINATION, DESIRE

"Its not whether you're right or wrong thats important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." - Warren Buffet
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Re: Aspellian's Garden

Postby kennynah » Thu Aug 27, 2009 4:34 am

what is your point here?
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