Now that market is in a correction, been trying to come up with a list of stocks that may benefit when market recovers.
- Ezra: TA:
Recent High of $2.63, Recent Low: S$2.04, Current - S$2.11, Support at S$2.04 (24% down from the recent high)
Next support at S$1.85, then S$1.65
Positive TA: seems to be supported at $2 level (previous resistance). recent market bounced up on 3rd Feb, it cheong 10% with very high vol. Either more distribution or that investment community still likes this darling.
Negative TA : But there are 2 sets of railway tracks (15th and 20th Jan and after reaching a high] which seems to suggest distribution going on (even before correction officially takes place).
FA (broad analysis/impression for catalyst or short term prospects / business impressions - not really drilling down):
- recent deals announced are quite interesting.. traditional projects are still coming onstream, but it is the Keppel/Petrovietnam/EOC deal which i find refreshing.
- seems that Ezra trying to take a new route and become an owner of FPSOs - steady cashflow...
- with Keppel also trying to diversify and reverse its downturn in O&M sector, it is ready to a stake in conversion of FPSO (abit like financing customers). so its a win-win situation. this could be the beginning of more such deals?? (at least it does get the market excited).
- still think that one day Ezra may get into upstream exploration and production (either via injection of assets or doing EPCC for its related parties holding such upstream assets)
- contribution from lift boats, deepwater units, ice-basher vessel
Negative FA:
- recent quarterly results - very bad - revenue dropped. cyclical earnings.
- high capex further down the road?
- starting up of new units, vessels like deepwater units and lift boats may result in lower margin or start-up costs
- there could be a lag of contracts coming onstream and recognise as revenue - ie, less contracts dished out during econ crisis, so now order book (of future) could be higher than projects being excuted. timing.
Other Macro
- oil price seems to be stabilising above S$65 to S$75 range
- Upstream companies may start to dish out more contracts as oil price stabilise and financing easier (or is it?). pent-up demand.
- Euro crisis another leg down? (not of my concern, i invest when market in uptrend - dun care about macro macro - not so smart to predict what Fed Chairman going to do).
Industry
- generally O&G sectors less scandals (except for Jaya's recent debt scare).
- most are either aggressively run (lots of debts) or very conservative (slow and steady eg. labroy marine)
- as most are family run biz with owners holding much shares, unlikely will do alot of hanky panky cos will lose face if find out (but 2-edge sword)
Conclusion: is it a growth stock? hmm... not in short term, but probably mid-term. anyway Ezra has reached a certain size whereby it will find it hard to grow to next level and maintain at that level consistently.
but seems to be noticed by investment crowd. remembered seeing that many funds are also their shareholders. so if market back on uptrend, could be a 20% popper...
( i hope, the more we hope, the more strength we have - but make sure you hope in the right belief)