Flu ( incl Swine, Bird etc ) 01 (Apr 09 - Sep 12)

[winston]

Mexico shuts schools over deadly influenza epidemic

MEXICO CITY: Mexican authorities on Friday closed all schools in the capital and central Mexico as the WHO announced hundreds of human cases of swine flu in the country, including 57 suspected deaths.

The outbreak has killed at least 20 people in the past month, Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said in announcing the school closures.

"This afternoon, the epidemic was confirmed by Canadian and US labs to be a new influenza virus," Cordova said in a televised statement late Thursday in which he urged people to avoid large crowds, shaking hands, kissing people as a greeting, or using the subway.

The government has gathered 600,000 vaccines to help protect healthcare workers dealing with the outbreaks, the health minister said.

The World Health Organization said on Friday there are 800 suspected swine flu cases in Mexico and seven cases reported in the southwestern United States.

It was not immediately clear whether Mexican authorities had identified the outbreak as that of swine flu, as labelled by the WHO.

Since March 18, 13 people have died in Mexico City, four in the central state of San Luis Potosi, two in Baja California in the northwest and one in the southern state of Oaxaca, Cordova said.


Source: AFP

[winston]

Mexico seeks to reassure over deadly swine flu

MEXICO CITY : Mexican authorities sought to reassure citizens Saturday over a deadly new multi-strain swine flu, as the World Health Organization warned that the virus had "pandemic potential."

The outbreak of the new virus transmitted from human to human that has killed up to 60 people and infected hundreds in Mexico and infected eight in the United States is a "serious situation" with a "pandemic potential", the head of the World Health Organization said Saturday.

In Mexico City, where 13 of 20 confirmed deaths occurred, officials said no deaths from swine flu had been registered on Friday, but reassurances came amid the severest public health measures seen here since a 1985 earthquake.

Meanwhile in the United States, where eight non-fatal infections occurred in Texas and California, reports said that 75 students in New York being treated for flu-like symptoms had recently travelled to Mexico, but no swine flu case was confirmed.

"A new virus is responsible" for the cases reported in Mexico and the United States, WHO Director General Margaret Chan said in a telephone press conference Saturday.

How the situation will evolve is "unpredictable," she said, urging other countries to "increase vigilance".

"This virus has clearly a pandemic potential," Chan added.

Mexican Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova confirmed 20 deaths from swine flu late Friday and said authorities were probing another 48 who had died with similar symptoms.

Health officials have been investigating more than 1,000 possible swine flu infections.

Apart from the capital, four other deaths were in central San Luis Potosi, two in Baja California, in northwest Mexico, and one in Oaxaca, in the southeast.

But Cordova added that it was "an epidemic, not a pandemic."

Mexican President Felipe Calderon said that the government would decree necessary emergency or preventative measures.

Authorities on Friday launched a huge campaign to prevent the spread of the virus, urging people to avoid contact in public.

In Mexico City, schools closed for up to a week, according to the health minister, and numerous public venues, including museums and sports stadia were closed to the public.

Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said late Friday that 553 sporting and cultural events had been cancelled for at least 10 days to avoid large public gatherings.

The capital did not register any deaths on Friday, Armando Ahued, the local health minister said Saturday.

"The good news is that sick people are reacting adequately to the medication," Ahued said, without giving further details.

Mexico City authorities initially announced a mass vaccination campaign using regular human flu vaccines, but later admitted that the WHO had advised them that it was better to use antiviral medicines, and said they had more than one million doses of suitable drugs.

The CDC website states that there is no vaccine to specifically protect humans from swine flu, only to protect pigs.

The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said tests show some of the Mexican victims died from the same new strain of swine flu that affected eight people in Texas and California, who later recovered.

The WHO, which was to send a team of experts to Mexico, said Friday that most Mexican cases had occurred in otherwise health young adults.

"Because there are human cases associated with an animal influenza virus, and because of the geographical spread of multiple community outbreaks, plus the somewhat unusual age groups affected, these events are of high concern," the Swiss-based body said in a statement.

Seven other countries on the continent on Friday adopted preventative measures to try to avoid the spread of the virus to their territory.

In Mexico City, medical teams were on stand-by at the international airport, and all passengers had to fill out a health questionnaire.

Human outbreaks of H1N1 swine influenza virus were recorded in the United States in 1976 and 1988, when two deaths were recorded, and in 1986. In 1988 a pregnant woman died after contact with sick pigs, according to the WHO.

In recent years, the global focus for a pandemic has shifted to the H5N1 bird flu virus, which has spread from poultry to humans and killed 257 of the 421 people infected by the virus since 2003.

If a pig is simultaneously infected with a human and an avian influenza virus, it can serve as a "mixing vessel" for the two viruses that could combine to create a new, more virulent strain.

Source: AFP

[helios]

yuppz, H5N1 is more deadly ...

[millionairemind]

Be careful, it already took 60 lives in Mexico..

Swine Flu in U.S., Mexico Is ’International Concern’ (Update1) By Jason Gale

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- The deadly swine flu outbreak in Mexico and the U.S. is a global concern and warrants an urgent assessment of its potential to spark the first influenza pandemic in 41 years, the World Health Organization said.

The United Nations health agency declared the epidemic “a public health emergency of international concern” after a meeting of an emergency committee of the agency today. There is no evidence at this stage the level of pandemic alert should be increased, WHO said in its statement today from Geneva.

Human-to-human spread of the previously unseen H1N1 swine influenza in Mexico and the U.S. is heightening concern that the virus may spark a pandemic. At least 81 deaths in Mexico may be linked to swine flu, Jose Cordova, Mexico’s Health Minister, told reporters today. More than 1,000 have fallen ill with flu- like symptoms in the Mexico City region in the past month, he said yesterday. The government of President Felipe Calderon has declared an emergency.

“The committee advised that answers to several specific questions were needed to facilitate its work,” according to the statement from the World Health Organization. “The committee nevertheless agreed that the current situation constitutes a public health emergency of international concern.”

The number of deaths in which swine flu was confirmed in Mexico remains at 20, Cordova said today at a press conference in Mexico City. Of 14 tissue samples tested from Mexico, half were a genetic match with the swine flu reported in eight people in California and Texas, the Atlanta-based Centers of Disease Control and Prevention said yesterday.

Cordova said today that 1,324 patients are under examination for possibly having the virus. No foreign government has put a ban on travel to Mexico, Economy Minister Gerardo Ruiz said at the televised press conference.

Source: Bloomberg

[winston]

Dear All,

I have created a new thread for this topic as we have discussions of it in 3 different threads eg. the "Beware & Protect Yourself", "Risks Out There" thread and the "Health" thread.

I have also split those discussions and filed it all under this thread.

Not sure whether this is the catalyst for a correction in the market. SARS & Subprime started like that

Take care,
Winston

[helios]

mmm ...

don't think this'll be pandemic ...

1.the cycle of SARS and present is only a 5 years old cycle. it is damn short a cycle, and people can still remember and associate well ... we need a "dinosaur" alike virus that is long forgotten in our history books.

2. there are biotech players in singapore (& asia pacific) well-positioned to captialise on such viral outbreaks, like west nile, dengue, avian flu. AND they are working with governments on bioterrorism threats and all ... so, it is easy for them to re-model their business plans to deal with "mini" crisis situation and make a profit out of this ...

[helios]

3. good "excuse" for garmens to tighten up their airport security and etc, isn't it?

[LenaHuat]

This is no 'swine' flu but a dangerous hybrid of the human, swine and bird flu. It will knock all the wind off the bullish sentiments. I'm acting immediately cuz I think this is a huge negative black swan, in Taleb's words.

[millionairemind]

This is no 'swine' flu but a dangerous hybrid of the human, swine and bird flu. It will knock all the wind off the bullish sentiments. I'm acting immediately cuz I think this is a huge negative black swan, in Taleb's words.

Lena,

I am still trying to calculate the odds that this will turn out to be a VERY SERIOUS PANDEMIC. If it does, the stock market is probably going to hell. A severe recession coupled with a pandemic will probably kill of any bull market

But then again, the market knows best and judging by the FUTURES this morning, we aint see nothing yet.

I no longer have any long positions and am trying to see how to play the short side on this one. I know US mkt is hitting major resistance. Other than NASDAQ, the other 3 indices are all in trading range the last 2 weeks... distribution days are increasing.. hmm..... the odds are increasing to stand on the short side..

Be careful out there every1.

Cheers,
mm

[HengHeng]

shorted on futures.. i would think basically everyone is waiting a reason to short the market..