Warning Signs 02 (Feb 15 - May 19)

[winston]

Don’t Just Count on a Crash – Bank on It

by Shah Gilani

The question today is, are we in a bubble? The answer is NO.

With growing earnings, stocks aren’t going to suddenly roll over.

There’ll have to be a catalyst, typically an external catalyst, as there always has been preceding a crash.

External catalysts today could include war breaking out with North Korea, a nuclear device being detonated somewhere, a sovereign debt default, a cyber-attack on critical infrastructure in the U.S., or something that threatens business and commerce.

The buildup and unfolding of a catalyst can usually be seen from a distance and allows investors time to react.

Source: Wall Street insights

https://wallstreetinsightsandindictment ... /#deeplink

[winston]

Traders see a Slowdown in these Charts

By James Helliwell

Source: Investopedia

https://www.investopedia.com/news/trade ... yptr=yahoo

[winston]

5 telltale signs this stock market’s ‘euphoria’ could be ready to blow up

By Barbara Kollmeyer

“Confident owners are holding no matter what, and that virtually eliminated all volatility. If no one sells the dip, then there is no one to buy the rebound”.

Rather than scrapping for dips to buy, investors should use new highs as a chance to “sell the most expensive stocks and shift to cheaper assets and those better able to resist a downturn.”

“A Short History of Financial Euphoria,” which lays out five characteristics of such speculative episodes:
1) Short-term financial memory
2) A misleading association of money and smarts
3) It’s hard to make money and to get it — you need to be a genius
4) There is something new and potentially greatly rewarding in the world
5) Leverage attaches to stocks and real estate

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-tel ... 2017-11-07

[winston]

A leading indicator for stocks is breaking down

by Rebecca Ungarino

One leading indicator for the equity market is breaking below a key support level, a move that could have negative implications for stocks.

The iShares high-yield corporate bond exchange-traded fund, the HYG, has fallen below its 200-day moving average, which it had held above for much of this year.

Source: CNBC.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/09/a-leadi ... yptr=yahoo

[behappyalways]

Interview With Felix Zulauf On China And Late-Stage Market Melt-Up
https://seekingalpha.com/article/412218 ... arket-melt

[winston]

I’m No Prophet, but I See Three Doomsday Warnings in My Charts This Afternoon

by LEE ADLER

Sign #1: Rising Treasury Cash

The TBAC (Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee) wants the Treasury to rebuild a $500-billion contingency fund.

Sign #2: Gains in Withholding Tax Collections

Withholding tax collections have begun to tail off after two very strong months where they were gaining around 8-9% on a year-to-year basis. The annual growth rate slipped to +5.2% as of November 7. That’s before inflation.

Sign #3: Uneven Economy Growth

Quarterly corporate income taxes are collected in September. These are estimated taxes for the third quarter. They declined by 5.3% year to year after a 4.9% decline in the second quarter. Corpora

Source: Sure Money

https://suremoneyinvestor.com/2017/11/i ... afternoon/

[winston]

This chart is sending a warning sign for the stock market

by Jeff Clark

The less-than-investment-grade sector of the corporate bond market peaked about one month ago. The decline started slowly enough. But it picked up steam last week. And now, high-yield bonds are in free fall.

It’s widely known that the action in the junk bond market tends to lead the action in stocks by anywhere from a couple of days to a couple of weeks.

Source: Delta Report

http://thecrux.com/top-trader-a-warning ... ck-market/

[winston]

These 3 Ominous Signs Appeared Right Before The Last Crisis

By Michael Snyder

On Tuesday, the number of New York Stock Exchange companies setting new 52-week lows climbed above the number hitting new highs, representing a “leadership reversal” that Hussman says highlights the deterioration of market internals.

Stocks also received confirmation of two bearish market-breadth readings known as the Hindenburg Omen and the Titanic Syndrome.

Hussman says these three readings haven’t occurred simultaneously since 2007, when the financial crisis was getting underway. It happened before that in 1999, right before the dot-com crash.

Hogan said the market is nervous about the “flattening” difference between the 2-year yield and the 10-year Treasury yield, which have been moving closer together.

Weakness in oil prices and skepticism about the passing of the tax bill are also weighing on sentiment”

Source: The Economic Collapse Blog

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2017/11 ... 2-91746477

[winston]

A key recession indicator is getting closer to the danger zone — and the Fed can't ignore it

by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

A shift in the bond market is giving investors and Fed officials pause about the economic outlook.

The concern stems from earlier periods when long-term interest rates slip toward or even below their short-term counterparts, often signaling recessions.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker says the central bank must avoid inverting the yield curve, or allowing 10-year Treasury yields to slip beneath two-year rates.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/key-rece ... 00506.html

[winston]

The stock market's safety net is disappearing — but don’t sound the alarm just yet

Share buybacks and dividend payments are slowing, but it's not yet time to panic about the longevity of the bull market, Morgan Stanley says.

The firm says stocks should continue climbing higher as corporations use money to grow their core businesses, something that equity investors have already started rewarding.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 00592.html