Market Sentiment 04 (Jun 14 - Oct 17)

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 10.7; +0.54
VXN: 18.13; +4.47
VXO: 10.39; +0.97

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.06; +0.36. A bit of fear returned to the market.

Bulls and Bears: The opposite effect? Bulls fell as the market rallied and now the bulls rally back as the market sold. Okay, it was Friday selling and that happened well after the survey. Bears fell right back down to again close at 18.3.

Bulls: 55.8 versus 50.0
Bears: 18.3 versus 19.2

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 10.38; -0.52
VXN: 16.3; +0.1
VXO: 8.89; -0.84

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.09; +0.11. Jumped back over 1.0 on the close but this was more a function of expiration.

Bulls and Bears: Bouncing up and down after hitting over 60 for several weeks in the spring. This kind of yo-yo action shows a confused and apprehensive investor class. Looks as if those weeks in the 60's is taking its toll.

Bulls: 50.0 versus 55.8 versus 50.0

Bears: 18.6 versus 18.3

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 10.02; -0.46
VXN: 14.47; -0.33
VXO: 9.78; +0.55

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; +0.16

Bulls and Bears: Bulls come back some after a sharp drop from almost 56.

Bears climb to the highest level in 4 months. A bit more bullish, a bit more bearish.

Bulls: 51.5 versus 50.0
Bears: 19.4 versus 18.6

Source: investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.18; -0.26
VXN: 17.61; -0.82
VXO: 10.13; -0.3

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.13; +0.15. Big jump but most likely rolling out positions to another quarter.

Bulls and Bears: Back and forth week to week the past two months though holding near the top of the range. Bears similarly holding the same range, just off the lows.

Bulls: 54.9 versus 51.5

Bears: 18.6 versus 19.4

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from?

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.19; -1.35
VXN: 16.81; -1.19
VXO: 9.97; -2.19

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.93; -0.19

Bulls and Bears: No real change, just back and forth in the recent ranges, Bulls just off highs earlier in the year in the 60's, bears just off lows around 15. Those readings in the 60's suggest a market pullback, but to this point, no serious backtracking.

Bulls: 52.5 versus 54.9
Bears: 18.8 versus 18.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 9.51; -0.39
VXN: 13.8; -0.82
VXO: 8.64; +0.24

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.84; -0.03

Bulls and Bears: Bulls slip to match the lows of 2017. Hit highs in early 2017, now bulls are falling but surely the Fed's largesse will bounce them back up. Right?

Bulls: 50.0 versus 52.5
Bears: 18.6 versus 18.8

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 9.36; -0.22
VXN: 14.36; 0
VXO: 7.77; -1.23

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.74; 0

Bulls and Bears: Bully. Bulls surge almost 8 points and indeed close to the highs from earlier in the year. Nothing like new highs. Bears fell almost 2 points, falling back toward multiyear lows.

Bulls: 57.8 versus 50.0
Bears: 16.7 versus 18.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 10.29; +0.18
VXN: 15.91; +0.02
VXO: 8.26; -0.13

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.83; -0.11

Bulls and Bears: Bully. After a surge of 8 points the prior week, bulls continued the charge, moving back over 60 for the first time since early 2017. This is again putting out a caution flag for the upside, so much so that Investor's Intelligence issued an alert on this showing in its survey.

The market tried to roll over several times since that bout of 60+ readings in early 2017, but the selling was blunted by the PPT, then the buyers could come back in and rescue the market. They did.

Now with this reading, you have to start watching for rollover attempts. Late last week could be one, but it was not much, at least not yet.

Bulls: 60.2 versus 57.8
Bears: 16.5 versus 16.7

Source: investment House

[winston]

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Coca-Cola (KO)... soft-drink titan
McDonald's (MCD)... Quarter Pounder, Big Mac, McFlurry
Microsoft (MSFT)... Windows, Office, Xbox
Amazon (AMZN)... "FANG" stock
Facebook (FB)... "FANG" stock
Nvidia (NVDA)... technology "picks and shovels"
CBRE Group (CBG)... real estate "picks and shovels"
HSBC (HSBC)... financial services
Morgan Stanley (MS)... financial services
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Visa (V)... credit cards
Carnival (CCL)... "things can't be all that bad"
Priceline (PCLN)... online travel
Sotheby's (BID)... auctions
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)... concerts
Madison Square Garden (MSG)... sports and entertainment
Activision Blizzard (ATVI)... video games
Electronic Arts (EA)... video games
Weight Watchers (WTW)... Oprah's latest winning venture
Exelon (EXC)... utilities
Aetna (AET)... health insurance
Dow Chemical (DOW)... global leader in chemicals
Becton Dickinson (BDX)... needles and syringes
General Dynamics (GD)... tanks, submarines, high-tech computers
Raytheon (RTN)... cruise missiles, laser-guided bombs
Caterpillar (CAT)... largest maker of construction and mining equipment
Century Aluminum (CENX)... aluminum
Southern Copper (SCCO)... copper
Waste Management (WM)... "recession-proof business"

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

IBM (IBM)... 21 straight quarters of declining revenue
Snap (SNAP)... overhyped social-media IPO
Regal Entertainment (RGC)... movie theaters
Public Storage (PSA)... self-storage
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)... another victim of Amazon
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)... restaurant chain
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)... restaurant chain

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 10.03; -0.41
VXN: 14.09; -0.6
VXO: 8.9; +0.44

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; -0.01. Second straight session over 1.0.


Bulls and Bears: Bully. Bulls were lower but still at 60, the key level for corrections. Of course the market has fade a week or two, but that is not the kind of correction I am talking about. A real correction. We will see.

Bulls: 60.0 versus 60.2
Bears: 16.2 versus 16.5

Source: Investment House