Market Sentiment 04 (Jun 14 - Oct 17)

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 15.37; -0.93
VXN: 15.14; -1.25
VXO: 14.8; -0.71

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; +0.16

Nine 1.0+ Readings in 3 weeks, 5 of 8 sessions over 1.0.


Bulls and Bears: Bulls and bears go different ways with bulls less bullish and bears less bearish. Bulls are falling nicely off the 56.7% high hit on this round that was enough to start at least some selling.

The threshold seems to get lower as this rally continues. Bears were strange, falling as the market struggled.

Bulls: 49.0 versus 52.5

Bears: 22.6 versus 22.8

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 12.29; +0.27
VXN: 13.98; +0.32
VXO: 12.24; +0.4

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.05; +0.08

Eleven 1.0+ Readings in 4 weeks, 7 of the last 12 sessions over 1.0.

Bulls and Bears: Of course bulls tumbled and bears jumped just as the market bottomed.

Bulls: 44.6 versus 49.0
Bears: 24.3 versus 22.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 13.29; -0.73
VXN: 15.45; -0.78
VXO: 13.3; -1.52

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.01; -0.03

Fourteen 1.0+ Readings in 5 weeks, 10 of the last 16 sessions over 1.0. Still plenty of pessimism to keep some upside pressure on.

Bulls and Bears: Bulls bounced and bears faded post-FOMC with all the 'do nothing, harm nothing' feelings. Perhaps not as the market is struggling to hold that post-FOMC happy time.

Bulls: 45.2 versus 44.6

Bears: 23.1 versus 24.3

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 13.48; +0.64
VXN: 15.66; -0.04
VXO: 14.08; +0.58

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.18; +0.18

Seventeen 1.0+ Readings in 5 weeks, 13 of the last 21 sessions over 1.0.
Still plenty of pessimism.


Bulls and Bears: With the volatility subsiding, bulls continued to recover
and bears continued to fall.

Bulls: 46.7 versus 45.2

Bears: 22.8 versus 23.1

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 16.12; -0.57
VXN: 17.4; -0.25
VXO: 15.99; -0.56

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; -0.03

Nineteen 1.0+ Readings in 5 weeks, 15 of the last 26 sessions over 1.0.
Lots of pessimism.

Bulls and Bears: Both bulls and bears slipped a bit. Both are off their highs and lows respectively, though bulls have lost more ground than bears have gained.

Bulls: 46.1 versus 46.7

Bears: 23.1 versus 22.8

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 13.34; -0.41
VXN: 15.37; -0.26
VXO: 13.57; -0.44

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; -0.02

Nineteen 1.0+ Readings in 6 weeks, 15 of the last 31 sessions over 1.0. A string of sub-1.0 readings the past week-plus.


Bulls and Bears: Wow an impressive drop in bulls as they continue to tail off from the peak in the high 59's. Bears moved higher though their rise is nowhere commensurate with the drop in bulls.

Both bulls and bears slipped a bit. Both are off their highs and lows respectively, though bulls have lost more ground than bears have gained.

Bulls: 42.9 versus 46.1

Bears: 23.8 versus 23.1

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 16.19; +0.83
VXN: 18.23; +0.9
VXO: 17.16; +0.88

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.11; +0.27. After commenting how the put/call ratio had not risen given the selling, it jumps over 1.0.

20 1.0+ Readings in 6 weeks, 16 of the last 35 sessions over 1.0. After a 2 week string of readings less than 1.0, finally a move over. The significance is the streak below 1.0 even as the market turned more volatile day to day. Breaking back over shows a change in mentality toward worry, though not that much given just 1 session.

Bulls and Bears: As volatile as the day to day back and forth in the indices. Bulls jumped back up and bears fell back to the level two weeks prior. Still, well off the 59ish that bulls hit on the last run higher.

Bulls: 47.1 versus 42.9.

Bears: 23.1 versus 23.8

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 22.51; +0.43
VXN: 23.03; +0.67
VXO: 24.19; +1.52

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.37; +0.18

Six straight 1.0+ sessions after a string of weeks of below 1.0 readings.

Lots of put buying either for hedging or speculation. Kind of late to the event. Six straight sessions is enough to help trigger a bounce.


Bulls and Bears: Rather absurd. Bulls surged the prior week and now crater to a pullback low.

Bears bounce to the level touched 5 weeks back. There was no reason to bounce before and now it is tumbling back as it should.
Long way to go to give a new signal.

Bulls: 41.7 versus 47.1

Bears: 24.3 versus 23.1

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 14.17; -0.57
VXN: 18.95; -0.12
VXO: 14.19; -0.99

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.07; +0.18

Back above 1.0 after one day off. 10 of 11 sessions over 1.0 on the close. Plenty of downside speculation.


Bulls and Bears: Bears post their greatest numbers in months and stocks then rally. Not at extreme levels either way, just working back toward each other after diverging.

Bulls: 42.9 versus 41.7

Bears: 25.7 versus 24.3

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 12.85; -0.5
VXN: 15.51; -0.51
VXO: 12.91; -0.31

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; +0.07

11 of 16 sessions over 1.0 on the close. 4 of 5 sessions back below 1.0 after a long streak over 1.0 on the close. That gave plenty of upside impetus and the market is using it.

Bulls and Bears: Bears post their greatest numbers in months and stocks then rally. Not at extreme levels either way, just working back toward each other after diverging.

Bulls: 51.0 versus 42.9

Bears: 23.5 versus 25.7

Source: Investment House