AAR & TOL 01 (May 08 - Oct 08)

[kennynah]

in near term, usd should weaken against euro..just 30 mins ago...

germany export prices up 2.9% vs a year ago

germany import prices down 0.8 on month

[littlecupid]

....my only concern is that US market is still quite high....

LC : hope you are well..

i am curious with your statement above....care to give us your thoughts on why you have this concern that US market is still quite high? i assume you are therefore expecting further substantial decline in US mkt indexes?

hehe...can be better....

Just some thoughts of mine.....
US YTD decline only 13 ?? % only...still chicken feed...
PE of US companies 23 ?? still very high with earnings coming down still
VIX still so low....probably traders know better...haha

STI can only recover if the US market perform....so still no hurry to add to long position...meanwhile just keep my shorts still open... just my gibberish comments hor

Looking back... now US YTD is ~32%
PE down 17-18
VIX very high 50+....

just loaded truck load....I think we are somewhere near an interim bottom

[littlecupid]

STI recovering fast...don't be feared with no action.... cha pat lari

[winston]

STI recovering fast...don't be feared with no action.... cha pat lari

You mean sell into the rally ?

Or buy before the rally ?

Ha Ha..

[littlecupid]

hehe...its always the darkest before dawn.

[Aspellian]

hehe...its always the darkest before dawn.

is it dark enough yet? i have not seen light for very looong....

[LenaHuat]

If U see light, it could be an oncoming train I think the good light will take light-years to arrive. Keep your powder dry.

[kennynah]

cannot see light??? i show you...

[LenaHuat]

Hi K
I'm not sure if the pair of hands are letting go or getting ready for an embrace

One more sad but really avoidable tragedy:

Singapore woman loses $90,000 in just 2 days

SHE's a 27-year-old whose job it is to advise bank clients and sell them investment products.

Her job title is bank relationship manager. But, going by her own investments, she now jokingly refers to herself as a "relationship damager".

Reason: She's lost about $90,000 of her own money in the stock market.

And she managed to do it mostly in the last two days.

She did not mind sharing her story but only wanted to be referred to as "Jane" because she does not want her parents to know of her loss.

Jane, who holds an Arts and Social Sciences degree from the National University of Singapore, said: "If they knew, they would be completely shocked. It's so much money.

Concerned

"Two days ago, they asked me if I managed to sell my shares in time, because they heard about the crash in the news."

"I just said I was okay. 'Nothing lah'. I didn't want them to worry."

Even her two younger siblings do not know.

"That's my own investment. I won't go around telling people," she said.

"But the truth is that I'm already seeing a loss of 60 per cent compared to one year ago," said Jane, who has about $150,000 stuck in the stock market.

"It's quite sad to see your portfolio going down. So far, in my career, I've never seen something so bad."

She's been in the banking sector since 2003.

All the 12 counters in her portfolio have nosedived, some by up to 89 per cent.

For example, she bought two lots of Cosco Corp at $3.25 six weeks ago. Cosco Corp was down to $1.47 yesterday morning.

"During the past year, I've tried to cut losses by averaging, buying at lower prices. But they (the prices) became lower again.

"I expected a drop in the market, but it's falling too much already. Two weeks ago, before Lehman Brothers collapsed, we thought the market was already coming to a bottom."

The sudden plunge in the market "was a shock".

"The market suddenly turned around and I did not adopt the cut-loss strategy. I didn't cut. So when some of my counters dropped by 30 per cent, then 50 per cent, then 80 per cent, how to cut? You just hold onto it.

"A lot of the penny stocks that I bought were initially for short-term trading, but it looks like I have to hold onto them for a longer time now."

Jane said one of her friends, who has lost over $160,000, closed all his accounts a few months ago because "he feels that the more he trades, the more he loses"."

Is she thinking of doing the same?

"Maybe. I'll just wait and see. I think I'm okay, since it's just paper losses."

Although she believes prices can still fall another 20 per cent, Jane is hopeful for a good technical rebound. She will then try to cut her losses.

With the financial turmoil spreading to Europe, "even with the US$700 billion($1 trillion) rescue plan coming up, people are quite worried as to which organisation will be hit next".

By her own admission, Jane's $90,000 loss could have bought her another car to accompany her Peugeot, which she bought last year for about $120,000.

"The last few years, the market has been very good."

She earns a basic monthly salary of $6,000, and used to earn about $3,500 in commission.

"In good times, we can earn up to $10,000 a month in commission."

But now, Jane said she would be happy with $1,000, because "maybe we'll earn nothing".

She also said she would cut down on luxury goods, like Louis Vuitton bags and $600 Ferragamo shoes, from once every three months to once a year.

Cutting costs

Instead of eating in restaurants three times a week, she will do so only once a week, and "eat more at home", which is a four-room flat she shares with her parents. She gives them about $1,000 a month.

Jane also has about $100,000 in Australian and New Zealand currencies in fixed deposits, but "even that is down".

She believes that with the financial turmoil, a lot of people in the banking sector will be hit.

"Now, every month, I just wait for my pay."

[kennynah]

uh oh....i better call my niece...the above description macam like her...so choon...2 siblings, nus arts 2003, banking sector....hahahaha.....