AAR & TOL 01 (May 08 - Oct 08)

[LenaHuat]

Hope, it's unrelated to U, K.

The worse is yet to be. No1 trusts a banking relationship mgr easily any longer
She might not have a job soon, very soon.

[winston]

Revisit what I wrote some time back:-

Similarity to the Asian Financial Crisis ?

Part 1
a) Markets dropped for 1.5 years, from 1997 to mid 1998
b) Markets have dropped now for a year already, since Oct 2007

Part 2
a) In mid 1998, things looked very bleak going forward
b) In Oct 2008, things also look very bleak going forward

Part 3
a) Although things looked very bleak in mid 1998, there was a sharp rebound in the markets. The markets tend trended upwards from mid 1998 to 2000, much beyond the expectation of most people because things looked so bleak in mid 1998
b) Things certainly looked very bleak in Sep 2008 looking forward

Part 4
a) The market tend trended downwards for two years from 2000 to 2002
b) I can see the market going down after the sharp rebound this round

Questions:-
1) Do you sell into the rally ?
2) Do you buy hoping for it to go higher ?
3) What trailing stop loss % do you put on your existing positions ?
4) Would you be shorting or buying some puts later ? When ? What sign would you be looking for ?
5) The trend is your friend. What is the trend ?

[blid2def]

Hope, it's unrelated to U, K.

The worse is yet to be. No1 trusts a banking relationship mgr easily any longer
She might not have a job soon, very soon.

Wahlao, her basic pay in 4 years already 6K... I find that quite disgusting....

[HengHeng]

LOL , well i have friends which did it 2 years -> retail to privilleged and private but basic isn't the issue in sales , it is the commissions that money spinners.

Well when the tier structure came about my friend has a problem meeting the tiers as he had to sell products that weren't good i.e structure deposits which are now the bane of most retail banks now. Basically , he went straight to private banking and never looked back.

So the main issue is there is a different in ablities of these "salesman" and truely people whose intentions are to serve their clients.

[iam802]

Part 3
a) Although things looked very bleak in mid 1998, there was a sharp rebound in the markets. The markets tend trended upwards from mid 1998 to 2000, much beyond the expectation of most people because things looked so bleak in mid 1998
b) Things certainly looked very bleak in Sep 2008 looking forward

Part 4
a) The market tend trended downwards for two years from 2000 to 2002
b) I can see the market going down after the sharp rebound this round

Winston, from your experience, does the rally now feels like 'Part 3' in your notes?

I am of the opinion, that even with this rally, a lot of business have been hurt in this short 1-2 months squeeze.

Borrowing becomes more expensive, business slow down (in US, China etc).

Moving forward, I think companies will be reporting slower growth, or even cost cutting measures.

I think, once the US is done with acquiring stakes in various banks, we will be going into 'Part 4'.

[winston]

Yes, I think we are heading to Part 3 if not already in Part 3.

Things look very bleak going forward. That was also what happened in 1998 but the market rallied strongly from mid 1998 to 2000.

In 1998, the parrots on TV, the magazines, the newspapers were also calling for the end of the world but the rally went on for 1.5 years before dropping again..

[helios]

Yes, I think we are heading to Part 3 if not already in Part 3.

Things look very bleak going forward. That was also what happened in 1998 but the market rallied strongly from mid 1998 to 2000.

so, in between these parts 3 to 4 episodes, what can we do?

sell into rallies, buy on weakness?

US election on 4-Nov'08, by end of this year, will we be in Part 4?

[mojo_]

What previously took the Dow 80+ years to go up by 1000 pts was accomplished in..... just 1 day yesterday!

[blid2def]

Moving forward, I think companies will be reporting slower growth, or even cost cutting measures.

Already happening of course. Talk to your friends (or my wife, in my case haha) - especially those in non-financial MNCs, and see which companies already have travel and wage increment freezes, for example. And that's just the less serious side of things, of course. If you've tuned in to the Taiwanese news last night, you'd also have seen the reports of airlines forcing staff to go on leave of absence of a year... (i.e. you keep your job but we keep your pay).

I've this odd idea (aka conspiracy theory if you like) that things which grab the media attention are just distractions from things in the background which, in time to come, get their time in the spotlight but only to serve as distractions for another event happening in the background. It's like working with layers in Adobe Photoshop.

[blid2def]

[quote="mojo_"]What previously took the Dow 80+ years to go up by 1000 pts was accomplished in..... just 1 day yesterday!

Haha nice weightlifter! I should expand my set of smileys for the forum.

So, by Elliott Wave Theory - we're still in either Wave 1 or 2 in the grander scheme of things (i.e. over the entire stock market's short history)?