Over the past few days, the talking heads on CNBC have been comparing the current stock market crash with the Great Depression. They even interviewed people who have gone thru that crash
TOL:-
1) Do you really remember what happened during the Oct Crash or even the Asian Financial Crisis ? If you dont really remember the full story, how can one remember the full story on something that happened 75 years ago ?
2) Even if they remember the entire story, is the info of relevance? It is like comparing an apple with an orange. Ya, both are fruits. Both will become black when rotten. Both contained Vitamin C. Both will make you lau sai if you take 20 at a time and so on... Noise Noise Blah Bah.
3) The perception now is that this time would be different. In 1932, the US govt. did not intervene. This time, the governments are coordinating things and moving sky & earth to shore up things. Anyway, I recalled Sir John Templeton mentioning that the most dangerous words are, "This Time Is Different"
4) Maybe this time the Kondratieiff Cycle would really materialize although it is off by 16 years now...
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The Kondratieff cycle is based on the logarithmic progression of the consumption of resources, as it relates to boom and bust cycles. Kondtratieff was a brilliant Russian who studied why markets for anything consumable seem to always progress through boom and bust cycles, he found it is explainable mathematically, and that all boom bust cycles follow the same function, growing exponentially until there is a collapse of the market.
The Communists in Russia sent him to die in Siberia, because Kondrateiff's conclusions showed that even a Marxist market will follow the same boom / bust growth cycle. It was the commie belief that, according to Karl Marx, communism would ultimately succeed economically and socially and end in ever lasting happiness.
Are the gestational periods of these 4 generations, and the psychological effects that result from first, harshness, then comfort, then excess and corruptness and loss of personal discipline. A common example is Rome's rise and eventual decline... Another is the rise and decline of the British Empire, another the rise and fall of both Imperial France and Spain.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"