Bonds 03 (Aug 12 - Jun 15)

Bonds 03 (Aug 12 - Jun 15)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:23 am

How to Prepare for the Treasury Bond Apocalypse by Alexander Green

http://www.investmentu.com/2012/August/ ... lypse.html
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Re: Bonds 02 (Sep 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:35 am

Chart of the Day: Follow the Money by Lance Roberts

I posted the following chart in this past weekend’s missive “The ‘Maybe’ Syndrome” where in I stated: “There is one other thing that is bothering me about the recent rally in July – smart money isn’t following it.”

The bond market is substantially larger than the stock market, and while stock market participants are all about taking risk, players in the bond market are about analyzing and managing credit risk. Therefore, historically, the bond market has been a much better gauge in regards to risk management than the stock market.

Over the past two months, as stock prices have risen, the bond market has not confirmed that additional “risk taking” is warranted.

The current divergence between stock prices and bond yields is at it widest level this century. Either yields will rise sharply as money rotates into stocks pushing asset prices markedly higher or stock prices will fall to close the gap with yields.


http://pragcap.com/chart-of-the-day-follow-the-money
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Re: Bonds 02 (Sep 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Thu Aug 09, 2012 6:12 am

Was That A False Breakdown in Treasury Yields? by JC Parets


http://allstarcharts.com/was-that-a-fal ... ry-yields/
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Re: Bonds 02 (Sep 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Thu Aug 09, 2012 6:18 am

The Hidden Factor Leading This “Safe” Asset to Collapse By Matthew Weinschenk

We’ve written before that U.S. Treasury bonds simply aren’t safe anymore.

Not because the United States will default, but because scared investors have piled into Treasuries, driving up bond prices dramatically.

This can’t go on forever, though. The market – and investors’ appetite for risk – will eventually return to normal. And at that point, this rampant demand for “safety” that’s keeping Treasury bond prices sky high will collapse.

http://www.yolohub.com/trading/the-hidd ... o-collapse
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Re: Bonds 02 (Sep 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 13, 2012 8:41 am

The Any Market Portfolio by Steve McDonald

Using the Any Market Portfolio can help you over the rough spots, get you to the point of making a very good return and keep you out of all the usual minefields that only create losses.

Using this portfolio strategy successfully will require you do few things differently:
Have at least one bond per year maturing. That will make cash available on a regular basis to buy into a rising interest rate market.

Own only ultra-short bonds. That’s a maximum of an eight-year maturity. That will limit the downside and hopefully keep you in the game when the market starts to sell off.

Buy small positions. It’s one thing to watch a $5,000 investment drop in value. It is an entirely different picture to watch a $50,000 one dropping. It’s a head game I know, but it works.

Even in this market, there’s a lot of safe money to be made in bonds, but it’ll require you play by a few new rules.

You can be on the “safe side,” but you have to own the right bonds and recognize that at some point their market value will drop.


http://www.investmentu.com/2012/August/ ... ility.html
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Re: Bonds 02 (Sep 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 13, 2012 9:19 am

Bonds. 1.64% versus 1.69% 10 year US Treasury.

Bonds bounced right back to the upside on the safe haven idea, based upon the other economic data. Maybe, maybe not.

There has been a break over the last three weeks, and then bonds broke below the 50 day EMA and support from the June consolidation.

They bumped right back above that with a little gap on Friday.

The next moves will be important. Do they break down further?

If the Fed will not be buying bonds, I guess they would lose a little value and rates would rise. I will talk more about that later.


Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 02 (Sep 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:43 am

Weekly Review

Bonds. 1.81% versus 1.84% 10 year US Treasury.

A modest gain in treasuries, bouncing off of the 200 day EMA after a week of selling.

This selling has been ongoing for three weeks as it stair-stepped to the downside.

This past week was a severe drop, plucking it right down on the 200 day EMA. But, as noted, it was a modest bounce, and it closed off of its high for the session.

Not a lot of strength. Perhaps it got a little bit of energy from Treasury Secretary Giethner's actions with respect to Fannie Mae.

But this is not a big move; it is more of a relief bounce off of the selling to the 200 day EMA.


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Re: Bonds 02 (Sep 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:48 pm

Treasury Yields Taking a Break by JC Parets

That was a pretty big move in yields that we just saw.

The gain was a quick 14% after crossing the 50-day moving average on a gap higher (see here).

In total we witnessed a 30%+ move in less than a month.

But then came the dreaded downward-sloping 200 day moving average putting a halt on the whole advance. At least for now.

http://allstarcharts.com/treasury-yield ... g-a-break/
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Re: Bonds 02 (Sep 10 - Aug 12)

Postby Muhajir » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:08 pm

Which country Goes Bankrupt Next?? :D
Singapore 101% ?????
Image
debt levels (as a percentage of GDP) Chart.

Watch what Bonds you are buying.

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Re: Bonds 02 (Sep 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 27, 2012 7:46 am

Weekly Review

Bonds. 1.68% versus 1.67% 10 year US Treasury.

Bonds closed flat. They gapped higher, reversed and lost a little bit of ground.

It has been a strong run on the week, given the economic data and the commentary out of the Fed.

A nice, big run to the upside off of a double bottom at the 200 day EMA.

It is still a toppish pattern right now, and it is bumping up against resistance and fading.

We will see what happens as bonds continue trying to run back and recover some of that lost ground.

They have some serious resistance to deal with at this level in terms of gaps and other consolidations.


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