Gold, Silver & Other Precious Metals 07 (Aug 11 - Dec 11)

[kennynah]

Ali :

long time no see...how have you been?

[Muhajir]

Ali :

long time no see...how have you been?

Hi Kenny,

Keeping fine over here

How about you mate?

Hope you will buy in on the dip this time.. I am very sure early next year Gold will break the $2000 barrier and lets not miss that.

Ali

[winston]

Central Banks: The Hidden Gold Demand Grows by Julian Murdoch

It’s that time of the quarter when we dig deep into the demand numbers for gold provided by the World Gold Council.

The headline for gold bugs is generally a good one. Even with the average price of gold more than $1,700 for the quarter, demand was up 6 percent year-over-year, with strong demand from anything related to investment.

Looked at on percentage terms, real growth of physical investment fell 10 percent from this time last year due to pullback in jewelry demand.

But that’s not the interesting story here. We all know, up until this point, that investor demand for gold and the subsequent rise in prices has been fueled by the search for safe-haven assets around the globe as uncertainty about the economy in Europe, and frankly everywhere else, inspires panic.

The really interesting story is this: Central banks remain consistent buyers of gold. But where are they on the demand chart? They aren’t. Because central banks have been net sellers of gold, for ages, they’re not even listed as a source of demand.

Here’s a bit of historical context for the “traditional” role of central banks in the supply-and-demand equation:

http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/featu ... emand.html

[kennynah]

Hi Kenny,

Keeping fine over here

How about you mate?

Hope you will buy in on the dip this time.. I am very sure early next year Gold will break the $2000 barrier and lets not miss that.

Ali

i'm ok Ali...thanks

it does seem logical that Gold will rise in the face of uncertainty and rising inflation in the years ahead...

best of luck on your investments...

[winston]

DJ INTERVIEW: China May Become No. 1 Gold Consumer Next Year

-- China may become the world's largest gold consumer as soon as next year

-- Western monetary policy, real interest rates will drive investment demand for gold

-- Gold prices could reach $2,000/oz within first quarter of next year

SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--China may pass India to become the world's largest gold consumer as soon as next year, underpinned by rising demand from a richer population, Standard Bank's head of commodity strategy said Tuesday.

"The Chinese gold market has seen massive deregulation in the past two to three years and is not close to being mature yet, so there's a lot of room for expansion," Walter de Wet told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview.

China's position as the world's largest gold producer should also boost domestic demand in coming years, de Wet said.

Demand, particularly from China and India, may continue to grow in coming years as investors shift to the physical market as one way to invest in gold, de Wet said.

That marks a big shift from investment in gold held by exchange-trade funds to demand from individuals wanting to hold actual gold bars or coins, de Wet said.

"China is set to see record [gold] imports this year, and will likely become the biggest buyer of gold bars," he added.

However, de Wet said the main driver for investment demand is accommodative monetary policy in the West and low interest rates globally, given gold's status as a hedge against inflation.

"We don't think that's going to change in 2012. So we still see a good case for investment demand to increase next year," he said.

De Wet said gold should be able to recover from its current weakness by the end of this year on the back of accommodative monetary policy by big central banks and government spending around the world.

Seasonal demand in the fourth quarter, leading up to the Chinese Lunar New Year, also should push gold higher, he said.

"It will probably be difficult for gold to reach an all-time high by the end of this year, but we do think gold prices will reach $2,000/oz within the first quarter of next year," he said.

Source: Dow Jones Newswires

[winston]

How the "Big Money" Could Push Silver 54% Higher in 2012
By Matt Badiali

The big money is tiptoeing back into silver.

Last month, commodity trading advisors, pool operators, and hedge funds – the "big money" – weren't interested in silver AT ALL…

But as they move back into the market, silver prices could soar. Let me show you what I'm talking about…

Jason Goepfert created SentimenTrader, a service that tracks investor sentiment toward various asset classes. According to Jason, silver just bounced off its most pessimistic reading in four years.

The so-called "commitment of non-commercial traders" hit 10,352. That's incredibly low. The last time sentiment numbers were that low was in August 2007. Six months later, the price of silver was 59% higher. It rose from $12 per ounce to $19 per ounce.

I went all the way back to 2002 and found that silver sentiment bottomed near 10,000 six times…

On average, the price of silver rose 33% in the next six months and 54% over the next year. This chart shows the last four times it bottomed…

Here's how the silver price performed after each of the last four times silver sentiment bottomed out…

The best return came after Bottom No. 2, which coincided with the U.S. banking/credit crisis. Silver soared an eye-popping 405%, including its parabolic rise in 2010.

As those numbers indicate, silver is one of the most volatile assets in the world. Over the last year, silver has seen massive price swings, including an 81% rally and two 30% drops.

That forced many traders to liquidate their silver holdings in order to meet emergency short-term requirements. (Plus, the debacle at commodity broker MF Global has scared many folks out of the market.)

But the long-term drivers of gold and silver's uptrends are still in place. Enormous and growing Asian economies like China and India are getting richer… and they have deep cultural affinities for precious metals.

Plus, the Western world has lived way beyond its means for a long time… the debts and liabilities it has taken on can only be paid back with devalued, debased money. This is bullish for "real money" assets like gold and silver.

With sentiment so negative toward silver (and just beginning to turn back up), it's a great time to take a position in this long-term bull market.


www.dailywealth.com

[winston]

DJ China Gold Jewelry Consumption To Double In Less Than 10 Years -WGC Executive

SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--Chinese gold jewelry consumption may double in less than 10 years compared with last year's consumption of 452 tons thanks to an increasingly affluent population, the managing director for the Far East at the World Gold Council said Thursday.

Gold jewelry consumption in the world's second-largest consumer may reach 550 tons this year, which is "ahead of the curve of our original estimate of 519.6 tons.

Based on this consumption, China's doubling may come earlier than 2020," Albert Cheng said at an industrial conference.

The WGC previously forecast China's gold consumption to double to 955.2 tons by 2020, Cheng said.

Around 6,000 tons of gold is stored with Chinese consumers, compared with 18,000 tons in India, he said.

The WGC expects China's total gold consumption to reach 750 tons this year, with 200 tons coming from investment demand for gold bars and coins, Cheng said previously.

Source: Dow Jones Newswires

[winston]

Another Reason Silver Prices Could Roar Higher By Matt Badiali
Saturday, December 3, 2011

Silver is an amazing metal… which is why it's likely to soar over the coming years…

You see, silver has more than 10,000 uses. It's one of the world's best conductors of heat and electricity. Inventors filed more patents on silver uses than any other precious metal in the world. And when silver is used for most industrial and technological purposes, it is used up forever… It simply costs too much to try to recycle the tiny bit of silver from every cell phone or casino chip.

I'm not saying industry is going to use up all the world's silver. That simply can't happen. But scarcity is a real issue.

Our rapid consumption of silver leaves very little to meet any uptick in demand from investors. A spike in interest will send prices spiraling higher…

Here's a breakdown of the silver market. The table below shows the percentage of the total amount of silver consumed by each category over the past four years…

As you can see from the table above, only 12% of the silver supplied to the market made it to bullion in 2010. That means only a little more than 100 million ounces of silver became bullion for the entire investing world.

That's a tiny fraction to sop up all the investment interest in the world.

Of that silver, about 43 million ounces went to exchange-traded funds like the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV).

That means you could buy all the extra silver bullion for about $2 billion. We could buy all the surplus silver bullion from the last four years for about $10 billion.

That's the same as the market value of the iShares Silver Trust today. If you wanted to build another silver fund, you couldn't. There just isn't enough silver bullion out there to fill the order.

Even trying to amass that much physical silver would send the silver price soaring. It's a simple market fact… When there is more demand than supply, it drives the price up.

And the economic problems confronting Europe and the United States have increased interest in precious metals… Silver gained a colossal 174% from August 2010 to April 2011.

In May 2011, however, the price collapsed 31% in just four weeks. The bull market simply ran up too far, too fast… and the decline wiped out many highly leveraged silver traders.

As I showed you on Wednesday, this has temporarily dampened sentiment toward silver. The "big money" – commodity trading advisors, pool operators, and hedge funds – isn't interested in silver at all…

The current bottom in sentiment is a great signal for us to add silver positions. The big money will eventually return to silver… The economic forces (namely Western debt) driving people away from paper money and toward precious metals aren't going away any time soon.

The current bottom in sentiment is a great signal for us to add silver positions. The big money will eventually return to silver… The economic forces (namely Western debt) driving people away from paper money and toward precious metals aren't going away any time soon.

As those big traders come back into the market, they have the capital to tie up all the excess silver production in the world. Remember… you could buy all the extra silver production over the last four years for less than $10 billion. Those traders could invest far more money than that.

When they do, the silver market will tighten up, and the price will roar upward. That's what we see EVERY TIME sentiment bottoms. When those big traders stop being bearish, they put enough money into silver to move its price. Sometimes it's 28%… Sometimes it's 405%… But it always goes up. (You can find the full story on that here.)

If gold and silver prices are nearly certain to rise over the next few years (and probably rise dramatically), the simplest way to play that trend is to buy bullion… real, hold-in-your-hand silver coins.

And I recommend everyone do just that… Buy some silver and store it away.

www.dailywealth.com

[winston]

Weekly Review

Gold: 1,749.40, +9.60.

Gold closed slightly higher. It rallied more intraday and backed off toward the close.

Still in its triangle and still trying to look for a new breakout to the upside.




Source: Investment House

[kennynah]

GOLD has a resistance at 1750 region...

but i suspect, it will break upwards today