2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby LenaHuat » Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:18 pm

I shall contradict my earlier post in the "European economic news" thread. Well, we have Bernake's QE2.
What if, the EU begins a E-QE1 (European QE1)? Stocks will hit the roof :lol:
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Re: 2011 - Predictions, Year of the Rabbit, CNY etc.

Postby Chinaman » Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:39 pm

LenaHuat wrote:What if, the EU begins a E-QE1 (European QE1)? Stocks will hit the roof :lol:


Good 1, print money is much easier than save money.
Hence, the world is going to flood with money, come next year.
So wat the point of working hard, place your bet on hard asset and you will retire early.
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Re: 2011 - Predictions, Year of the Rabbit, CNY etc.

Postby LenaHuat » Thu Dec 02, 2010 4:11 pm

Rumors are milling that the ECB will buy bonds :lol: QE breaking out in the Euro zone :lol:
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Re: 2011 - Predictions, Year of the Rabbit, CNY etc.

Postby LenaHuat » Sun Dec 05, 2010 9:40 pm

According to today's ZaoBao, the Chinese are expected to raise the prices of CNY 2011 goodies between 40% to 60% :o Furthermore, the Chinese have grown affluent and less food will be exported :o What would this mean for us apart from food inflation? Chinese herbs and medicine have already spiked alot.
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Re: 2011 - Predictions, Year of the Rabbit, CNY etc.

Postby LenaHuat » Tue Dec 07, 2010 8:49 am

Goldman Sach's US Chief Investment Officer shared these on CNBC:-
(1) S&P = 1450 by end 2011
(2) US growth will accelerate from 2.5 to 4%
(3) Overweight : Cyclicals and Tech
(4) Underweight : Consumer staples, utilities, healthcare
(5) Gold : Hit $1750 by 2012
(6) Oil : $105.

2011 will be the 3rd year of a bull cycle, from the low of March 2009 :D I share this optimism.
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Re: 2011 - Predictions, Year of the Rabbit, CNY etc.

Postby iam802 » Tue Dec 07, 2010 9:59 am

Chinaman shared a link to a YouTube video on Silver.

Do check out silver as well.
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

TA and Options stuffs on InvestIdeas:
The Ichimoku Thread | Option Strategies Thread | Japanese Candlesticks Thread
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US - 2011 Predictions

Postby winston » Thu Dec 09, 2010 6:30 pm

Byron Wien, former US chief strategist at Morgan Stanley and now with Blackstone, is even more bullish than Goldman Sachs, with a prediction of 1575 for S&P500 by end 2011, which is 28% higher than present.

(GS was looking at 1450.)


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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Wed Dec 22, 2010 9:39 pm

Doug Kass: “Explosive” surprises for 2011

Doug Kass has been teasing Fast Money watchers, dribbling out his “Unexpected Surprises.” (He will be dropping two more per week every Monday).

Surprise No. 1: I expect a series of populist initiatives by the current administration beginning by a frontal assault on mutual fund 12b-1 fees.

Surprise No. 2: The Internet becomes the tactical nuke of the digital age. Cybercrime likely explodes exponentially as the Web is invaded by hackers.

No. 3: Scarcity of water boosts agricultural prices and causes a military confrontation between China and India. The continued effect of global warming, and the increasing scarcity of water drives agricultural prices higher. Biggest aspect of this: trade sanctions, then military actions, by India against China.

4: Food and restaurant companies are among the worst performers in the S&P 500 Index.

5: In 2011, Microsoft (MSFT) launches a tender offer for Yahoo! (YHOO) at $21.50 a share. With the company tee’d up, News Corporation (NWS) follows with a competing and higher bid. (Microsoft is successful)

6: Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton switch jobs by midyear 2011, 18 months before the 2012 Presidential election.

An Obama/Clinton ticket would be viewed by many as unbeatable. Clinton is a relentless campaigner and she would be a far more effect drawer of votes than Biden. (Consider how many votes Obama and Clinton combined received in the 2008 Presidential primary campaign.)

7: Partisan politics cuts into business and consumer confidence and economic growth in the last half of 2011.

8: The market moves sideways during 2011.

9: The price of gold plummets by more than $250 an ounce in a four-week period in 2011 and is among the worst asset classes of the new year. The commodity experiences wild volatility in price (on five to 10 occasions, the price has a daily price change of at least $75), briefly trading under $1,050 an ounce during the year and ending the year between $1,100 and $1,200 an ounce.

10: The SEC’s insider trading case expands dramatically, reaching much further into the canyons of some of the largest hedge funds and mutual funds and to several West Coast-based technology companies.


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/ka ... -for-2011/
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Re: 2011 - Predictions, Year of the Rabbit, CNY etc.

Postby HengHeng » Wed Dec 22, 2010 10:43 pm

LenaHuat wrote:Goldman Sach's US Chief Investment Officer shared these on CNBC:-
(1) S&P = 1450 by end 2011
(2) US growth will accelerate from 2.5 to 4%
(3) Overweight : Cyclicals and Tech
(4) Underweight : Consumer staples, utilities, healthcare
(5) Gold : Hit $1750 by 2012
(6) Oil : $105.

2011 will be the 3rd year of a bull cycle, from the low of March 2009 :D I share this optimism.



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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Thu Dec 23, 2010 8:50 am

The Three Financial Trends That Will Define 2011 By Michael Lombardi

It’s that time of the year when analysts and economics make financial predictions for the year ahead. And it is time for me to throw in my two cents’ worth as well. I believe that four financial trends will shape and define 2011. Here they are:

Gold will rise in price again in 2011.
Gold stocks will be amongst the best stock sectors for investors in 2011.

As I sit down to write PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL this morning, the price of gold bullion is up 27% for 2010. Many of the gold stocks recommended in our various financial newsletters were up over 100% this year. I believe that trend will continue in 2011, because of the two other financial trends below that will establish themselves.

The U.S. dollar’s long-term downward trend will recommence in 2011.

After getting near a record low against other world currencies in early November, the U.S. dollar has been rallying. In my opinion, the greenback has been going up for the simple fact that the euro has been going down in value, as country after country in Europe gets its bond ratings downgraded.

The hard fact is that euro countries own very little in U.S. Treasuries when compared to other countries. In October of 2010, the five biggest owners of U.S. Treasuries were: China, Japan, the United Kingdom, Brazil, and Hong Kong. No euro country even made the top-10 list!

Because of bond trader focus on European countries (I think the bond traders are making a fortune shorting the bonds of troubled euro countries), the trend for a stronger U.S. dollar may continue in the first or even second quarter of 2011. But medium- to long-term, the greenback will go down, as it simply succumbs to too much debt backing the currency.

Interest rates will rise in 2011. Utility stocks and U.S. Treasuries will not be good investment for investors next year.

Long-term interest rates in the U.S. started to rise in October. Specifically, the yield on the bellwether 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen 38% since the first week of October 2010 to today. I believe this trend will continue as:
(1) foreign investors demand greater returns for buying bonds of a country that is drowning in debt; and
(2) all this monetary liquidity that has been pumped into the system to save us from the Great Depression II will result in inflation.

We all know that the prices of bonds and utility stocks decline as interest rates rise. I won’t own any of either in 2011.


http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2010/ ... fine-2011/
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