2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

US - 2010 Predictions

Postby behappyalways » Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:08 am

Don't believe the rosy forecasts

The problem with these predictions isn't that they rely on complex economic assumptions. It's just the opposite––they're really not forecasts at all, but extrapolations. The pundits are telling us that recent trends will simply keep rolling.

They could be correct, but only for a while. In the longer term, these forecasts will prove wrong, for a simple reason. Most assets are already selling at prices far above their historic averages. As economic gravity takes over, they'll inevitably return to those benchmarks -- meaning stocks, bonds and commodities have a long way to fall.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/ ... forecasts/
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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Sat Jan 01, 2011 7:09 am

7 Surprising Forecasts for 2011 by Richard Band


Surprising Forecast #1: Look for a Sizzling-Hot Stock Market in the New Year.

I'll go on record right now: The S&P 500 and Dow will breeze past this year's 9%+ performance in 2011.

Corporate profits will reach an all-time high in 2011. Interest rates will remain at rock-bottom levels. The unemployment rate will gradually ease; layoffs are already down 60%. All of which will light a fire under stocks.

You'd be a fool to be sitting on the sidelines.

But before you dive headfirst into the stock market, please know this: Not all stocks will soar higher in the New Year. Don't buy biotech or homebuilders or hotels or even supermarkets. The vast majority of these stocks are just waiting to set your money on fire.

Instead, look to dividend-rich blue chips.


Surprising Forecast #2: Congress & President Obama Will Make Nice.

The extension of the Bush tax cuts is just the beginning. Obama and the Republican Congress will shove aside their differences and work together in the New Year—not on every issue, of course. But on a few key issues, the two sides will reach a compromise, and investors will be the big winners.

The estate tax won't be abolished, but a much larger exemption—$5 million per person—has been enacted.

Fannie and Freddie will take it on the chin again, as more restrictions are placed on the mortgage giants—all in a hopes that the two will shrink into oblivion.

The two top priorities of the anti-business crowd are dead. Say farewell to cap-and-trade and union card check.
I'm already taking advantage of the most important change for investors: Low tax rates on dividends and capital gains will be extended for another two years.

I don't know about you, but to me, that's a green light to keep buying high-dividend income plays.


Surprising Forecast #3:[/b ][b]The Dollar Will Rebound

Sorry, Ben Bernanke, the dollar's value is headed back up.

The EuroZone crisis is going to squash all of Bernanke's efforts to push the U.S. dollar down. With Greece, Ireland, Portugal and possibly even Spain in desperate need of bailouts—to the tune of hundreds of billions of euros—the buck's main rival is about to be flushed down the drain.

"Hot money" will flood from the European shores back to the banks of the U.S. As a result, most foreign stock markets will lag New York in dollar terms in 2011.


Surprising Forecast #4: Look for Serious Cracks in the China "Miracle"

Inflation is skyrocketing. Scandals are multiplying like fleas in China's private sector. And no one appreciates the Chinese leadership's lax response to North Korea. Investors' patience is wearing thin. The Shanghai stock market has already shed 13% in 2010.

But this is just the beginning. Look for Western investors' attitude toward Chinese stocks to sour even more in 2011, and for the Shanghai stock market to plunge—while most global stock markets are rising.

Mark my words, the fastest-growing economy in the world will fall from grace in 2011. You must avoid it like the plague—or risk losing your shirt.

So forget China.


Surprising Forecast #5: Brazil & India Will Be Red-Hot

Brazil has made the most dramatic transformation of the past decade. Inflation is tame. Foreign currency reserves stand at $257 billion. It's built a formidable export machine, thanks to rich natural resources.

Plus, it's boosting infrastructure investments for the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics. It will be one of the fastest-growing economies for the foreseeable future, and one of the biggest investment opportunities of our lifetimes.

Thanks to its young population—median age just 25.1—India actually has the greatest long-term growth potential of any emerging market. Add in the fact that high-growth companies dominate the country's stock market, and big capital gains are yours for the taking.

And you couldn't have asked for a better time to get on board. Emerging markets are just pulling back from their November highs, making now a prime entry point.


Surprising Forecast #6: Gold, Silver & Oil Will Hit New Multiyear Highs

Strong global demand for commodities coupled with the Federal Reserve's attempts to debase the dollar is going to send gold, silver and crude oil prices soaring in 2011.

Gold will touch a string of new all-time highs, ultimately reaching $1,600 per ounce. Silver will climb from its current perch just below $30 per ounce to $35. And oil will finally break through resistance, reaching $100 per barrel once again.


Surprising Forecast #7: Home Sales Will Bounce Back

Now before you get too excited, understand this: Home prices will barely budge.

House prices will be lucky to creep 2% to 3% higher, as foreclosures continue to weigh on the market. Housing will remain certifiably cheap, and therein lies an incredible opportunity.

Thanks to the national price slump, the housing/rent ratio has plunged below 16X in many urban areas, including New York, Chicago and Los Angeles. That's a big deal because it means renting is more attractive than buying. So that's where we'll place our bet.


Source: Investor Place
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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Sun Jan 02, 2011 8:36 pm

Saumil Parikh Discusses Pimco’s Cyclical Outlook By Prieur du Plessis

The outlook in a nutshell is:

•Pimco forecasts a one-year cyclical bounce in U.S. economic growth as a result of monetary and fiscal policy measures, but major structural issues remain unaddressed.

•Truly fixing the sovereign debt crisis in Europe would require overcoming a great political divide between “core” and “periphery.” Policy coordination failure, coupled with political failure, is a non-trivial risk in Europe.

•Pimco remains very bullish on emerging markets, but this block of rapidly developing economies is increasingly faced with a policy “trilemma” that forces each country to choose between free capital flows, managed exchange rates and independent monetary policy.

http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/ ... l-outlook/
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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Mon Jan 03, 2011 6:52 am

Stock Market Predictions For 2011

I have no idea how the markets will end in January, let alone 2011. If that seems like a funny way for starting a post titled “Predictions for 2011″, then read on……

In my humble opinion, all these year beginning predictions are good for is gloating at the end of the year in case they do come correct. As a short term trader, I don’t care which way the markets head from here as long as I am on the right side of the trade, and so shouldn’t you.

Bull markets, bear markets, corrections etc are excuses best left for mutual fund managers and going by their records of last year, even hedge fund managers.

As short term traders, our job is to make money irrespective of the direction of the markets.

In fact, let me take this discussion a bit further by saying all these yearly predictions do more harm than good.

Suppose, I predict that Apple (AAPL: 322.56 -1.10 -0.34%) will hit 500 by the year end. As a result of this prediction and wanting to be proved right (who doesn’t like being right?!), I will be looking at Apple through tainted glasses all year.

Let’s leave the yearly predictions to the economists (and recent times have proved how much do they know!).

As short term traders, our only goals should be to try and become the best traders we can become. Let 2011 be a step in that direction!

http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/ ... -for-2011/
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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:09 pm

January 2011 Outlook For The U.S. Stock Market By Frank Ochoa

One thing is for sure: the S&P 500 ($SPX) finished 2010 on a bullish tear, remaining highly resilient to the end. However, given the January profile of the last three years, we could see a sizeable drop to begin 2011, as profit-taking hits its full stride. Here’s why..


Average of 6.1%
The last three years, the S&P 500 has lost an average of 6.1% in the month of January, losing 6.1% in 2008, 8.6% in 2009, and 3.7% in 2010. Could we see the same type of behavior in January 2011? My guess is yes.

The S&P 500 rallied solidly from the 1,050 level over the last four months, with only one decent retracement during this time (November). Furthermore, the market not only held highs in December, but it continued to reach new yearly highs throughout the month, despite weak volume. Seems to me that profit-taking could take over in January, which could lead to another first-of-the-month slide.

Target of 1,180?

If the market were to drop 6.1% to kick off 2011, we’re looking at a drop of about 76.73 points, which would put the index at around 1,181.15 sometime before February.

As you are probably familiar, the 1,180 level has been a major source of support in this index since November, so this ties in nicely with the technicals of the chart in the daily timeframe.

Buy the Dip Opportunity

Given the strength of the market since the bottom in 2009 and the lows of 2010, any dip to begin the year could be an excellent buying opportunity. As long as the S&P continues to hold above 1,170, we could see buyers enter the market in droves, which could yield new highs above 1,300 by April. Let’s see how this one plays out!

Here’s to a great year of trading in 2011!

http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/ ... ck-market/
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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Tue Jan 04, 2011 6:31 pm

Byron Wien Announces “The Ten Surprises For 2011″ By Prieur du Plessis on


The surprises for 2011 are as follows.

1. The continuation of the Bush tax cuts coupled with the extension of unemployment benefits has put all working Americans in a better mood. Real Gross Domestic Product rises close to 5% in 2011 driven by improved trade and capital spending in addition to stronger retail sales. Unemployment drops below 9%.

2. The prospect of increasing Federal budget deficits and rising government debt finally begins to weigh on the bond market. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury approaches 5% as foreign investors become more demanding. Spreads with corporate fixed income securities narrow.

3. Encouraged by renewed economic momentum the Standard & Poor’s 500 rises close to its old high of 1500. A broad range of sectors participate, but telecommunications and utilities lag.

With earnings improving, valuations seem low and individual investors return to equities for the first time since the financial crisis. Merger and acquisition activity becomes intense and the market reaches a blow-off euphoria. Stocks correct in the second half as interest rates rise.

4. Although inflation remains benign, the price of gold rises above $1600 as investors across the world place more of their assets in something they consider “real.” Sovereign wealth funds of countries with significant dollar reserves also become big buyers. Hedge funds keep thinking the price rise is becoming parabolic and sell their positions and some even short the metal but gold keeps climbing and they scramble back in.

5. Worried about inflation and excessive growth, the Chinese decide to use their currency as a policy tool. They manage the value of the renminbi aggressively to keep the growth of the economy below 10% and to prevent consumer prices from increasing above the 4%–5% range. The move is viewed as a precursor to the world-wide adoption of a basket including the renminbi as an alternative to the use of the dollar as the principal reserve currency.

6. Rising standards of living in the developing world seriously increase the demand for agricultural commodities. The price of corn rises to $8.00, wheat to $10.00 and soybeans to $16.00. Commodities become a component of more institutional portfolios.

7. The housing situation improves. Although the inventory of unsold homes remains high, the oversupply is drawn down substantially, contrasting with an increase in 2010. The Case-Shiller gradually heads higher and housing starts exceed 600,000.

8. Continuing demand from the developing world and a failure to bring onstream new supply causes the price of oil to rise to $115 per barrel. The higher price at the pump fails to discourage driving, increase sales of hybrid vehicles or cause Congress to initiate conservation measures.

9. Frustrated by the lack of progress against the Taliban and the corruption of the Karzai government, President Obama concludes that whenever American troops return home, Afghanistan will once again become a tribal state ruled by warlords.

He accelerates the withdrawal of most military personnel to the end of 2011. Coupled with the pullout of forces in Iraq, this will leave the Middle East without a major Western presence in the face of rising fears of terrorism.

10. Under duress Angela Merkel leads the way in European financial reform. The weaker countries, having pledged to cut their budget deficits in half by 2014, are provided additional transitional aid by the European Union (with Germany’s backing) and the International Monetary Fund as long as they implement their austerity programs, increase some taxes and still show modest growth.

The European financial crisis becomes less of a concern. The policies put in place prove psychologically satisfying to the financial markets but harmful in the longer term because they are palliative and do not represent solutions.

“ALSO RANS”

11. While Afghanistan and Iraq cool down as trouble spots, Pakistan and North Korea flare up. The former continues to be a troublesome breeding ground for terrorists and the latter initiates further hostile attacks on South Korea. China does not become involved in a major way and the international community seems helpless.

12. The broad international sanctions on Iran finally begin to work. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad enters into negotiations to scale back the country’s nuclear weapons development program in exchange for financial aid and foreign investment. Pressure from the country’s youth to provide more economic opportunity is the key factor in the change in policy. Talk about bombing by Israel or the U.S. subsides.

13. Rising interest rates and a strong economy allow the dollar to strengthen against the euro and the yen. Although the European financial crisis abates as austerity programs and higher taxes are put in place and Japan avoids falling back into recession, America becomes the developed market of choice for global investors.

14. Sarah Palin announces she will seek the Republican nomination for President amidst the cheers of Tea Party supporters. More moderate Republicans fear her candidacy will diminish the chances of their party winning in 2012 and try to blunt her efforts.

Rick Perry, governor of Texas becomes a contender. Mike Bloomberg is mentioned. On the Democratic side, liberals feel Obama has betrayed them and desperately try to find a challenger. With the economy improving the prospect of a second term for Obama becomes more likely.

15. The Russian government decides it is the laggard of the emerging markets and steps up its efforts to become more investor friendly. The Kremlin agrees to further nuclear weapons reduction and provides assurance to companies willing to invest there that the rule of law will prevail. The Russian equity market soars.

16. Laws related to marijuana usage are liberalized in more states. Recognizing that the drug may not be addictive, the public’s attitudes have evolved over the last thirty years, and this, along with a desire to alleviate the over-crowding of jails, causes state legislatures to take a more liberal position. Drug abuse groups are outraged.

17. Infrastructure problems in the United State become serious. New York subways are inoperative for days as a result of an electrical problem in the signal system. Gridlock snarls Los Angeles freeways, and to encourage cooperative commuting, high-occupancy vehicles are required to carry three or more people. State and local governments complain they lack the funds to deal with the problems and Washington refuses to help.

18. A major state fails to pay interest on a municipal bond issue because of a lack of funds, causing havoc in the municipal bond market.

19. In spite of fears of tenth anniversary terrorist attacks, 9/11/11 becomes a peaceful non-event because of excellent intelligence and surveillance.

20. While climate change activists remain shrill, the issue recedes in importance in the United States. Cold weather prevails during the winter and the summer heat is not oppressive. Support increases for a broader use of natural gas by utilities and public transportation and its price rises to $6.00 per mcf. In Europe and Asia however, environmental initiatives continue to move ahead.


http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/ ... %e2%80%b3/
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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Tue Jan 04, 2011 8:23 pm

Paul Kasriel: 2011 Economic Outlook – Credit Given Where Credit Is Due By Prieur du Plessis

Paul Kasriel, Chief Economist of Northern Trust, has just produced his annual economic forecast.

Here are some of the key takeaways:

1) The pace of economic activity is expected to accelerate in 2011 on a Q4/Q4 basis largely because of increased growth in credit created by monetary financial institutions.

2) Housing and state/local governments are sectors that will remain a drag on economic growth.

3) Exports are and likely will remain a star performer of the U.S. economy.

4) Inflation, while remaining low in absolute terms, is expected to increase modestly.

5) Money market interest rates are anticipated to remain near current levels because the Fed is not expected to raise its policy interest rates in 2011.

6) Bond yields are expected to drift higher as real bond interest rates continue to “normalize”.

7) The principal upside risk to economic growth and interest rates is that private monetary financial institutions sharply increase their credit creation.

8) The principal downside risk to economic growth and interest rates is that Chinese economic growth decelerates sharply.

9) Federal budgetary issues are not a near-term threat to economic growth, but are a long-term threat.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-c ... us0111.pdf
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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:12 am

My expectations for the stock market in 2011

2011 kicked off with a bang yesterday as the Dow rallied 93 points and the S&P 500 was up more than 1%. Most financial analysts and economists are predicting we are going to see more days like this in the next 12 months and that the stock market will continue to move higher; upwards of 10%.

At this point, I am also bullish for global markets in 2011.

With that being said, I have done this long enough to know that the stock market will not move higher each and every week. We will see dips and sell-offs occur in 2011, just as we did in 2010.

The sovereign debt issues in Europe, the sluggish real estate market, unemployment, disappointing earnings seasons, and China's raising of interest rates are just some of the challenges that will cause these down moves. In addition, the world economy will probably be forced to deal with an issue that no one has been able to predict at this point.

However, even with all these headwinds in 2011, I still believe the markets are headed higher on an annual basis. The stock market has been battling these headwinds for 2 years now, and still it continues to to rally. I learned early on in my career - the trend is your friend... until it stops.

From my vantage point, it's hard to see this rally stopping in the near term as the Federal Reserve doing everything in its power to keep interest rates at all time lows and buying $600 million of Treasuries. Also, we can't discount the robust growth we are seeing from emerging markets, like China.

So what exactly am I saying? 2011 will be similar to 2010; we will rallies, we will see sell-offs, but I believe we will end the year higher than it is now.

In the interim I am looking forward to trading the increased volatility that will ensue over the next 12 months. Though everyone knows they should have an investment account to build for their financial future, too many people shy away actively trading a portion of their accounts.

Unfortunately, most investors have sat in mutual funds for 10 years and have little to show for it except the fees they paid to their financial planners and the funds themselves.

If you are one of those people, I encourage you to take action in 2011 and diversify into actively trading a portion of your portfolio. I expect the volatility to begin increasing this month and whether you are a novice at trading or a seasoned veteran, now is an opportune time to take advantage of the market's swings.


Source: thestockenthusiast.com
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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:34 am

The Stock Market: A Word Of Caution As We Start 2011 By Michael Lombardi

While I take no pride in being the bearer of bad news so early in 2011, events are unfolding in the stock market that require immediate caution on the part of my readers. Specifically, an indicator I follow closely is flashing red for stocks.

Stock market sentiment—that’s how investors feel about stocks—has turned very bearish. Here’s how this indicator works:

The more positive investors feel about the stock market, the more bearish the investment sentiment indicator turns. The logic is quite simple: Stock market investors are usually wrong when as a group they feel that stocks will move in a certain direction, as the stock market always delivers the opposite of what is expected of it.

After a great 2009 and a good 2010, the prevailing consensus is that the worst is over for the U.S. economy and that stocks will have a great 2011. Nothing could be further from this consensus. The easy money in the stock market has already been made.

The S&P 500 is up 86% since its March 2009 low—the best rally for the S&P 500 in 55 years! I told my readers to get into stocks in March 2009 (and to stay in stocks right through 2009 and 2010), because the great majority of investors were avoiding the stock market. I was saying “buy” when everyone was selling or simply not interested in stocks. This is classic contrarian investing.

Going into 2011, it is a different story for me. Our in-house technical analysis expert, Anthony Jasansky, P. Eng., has just completed an excellent study for us in which he compares the sentiment reading of the American Association of Individual Investors, Investors Intelligence (a service that tracks the opinions of financial newsletters), U.S. corporate insider buying/selling, and the puts/calls ratio of the Chicago Board of Exchange (the entire group being known as sentiment indicators).

The bottom line: too many investors, advisors and analysts have turned bullish on the stock market. This is actually bearish for stocks. Remember, the stock market always does the opposite of what is expected of it. And the most popular group of sentiment indicators is flashing red for us as 2011 starts.

The headlines flashing across Bloomberg and CNBC are all too positive. Just a day ago it was, “GM (GM: 38.07 +0.17 +0.45%), Ford (F: 17.89 +0.51 +2.93%), Chrysler U.S. December Sales Top Analyst Estimates,” “U.S. Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Pace in Seven Months,” and more.

Couple all of the positive economic news with the biggest stock market rally in 55 years and we are dealing with the reverse of what has happened over the past 22 months—the bear has been successful in luring investors back into the stocks for 22 months, as stock prices rose. In due course, as more investors turn bullish, the bear market will start to bring stock prices back down.

Investors will wonder, “How can the stock market be moving lower when the economy is getting better?” The stock market is a leading indicator. All the positive economic news we are hearing today was discounted by the stock market months ago.

The year 2011 will be treacherous for investors. I don’t expect to see the gains of 2009 and 2010 repeated. I do see the bear’s ugly head returning amid a sea of rising optimism. I’m ringing the warning bell early for my beloved readers: Tread with caution in 2011.

Michael’s Personal Notes:

According to Virginia-based American Bankruptcy Institute, 1.53 million Americans filed for bankruptcy in 2010—the highest amount since 2005 when the U.S. Bankruptcy Code was revamped by Congress.

While the U.S. Labor Department will report Friday that the U.S. created thousands of jobs in December of 2010, all is not well in America. Many Americans have given up looking for work (skewing the job numbers), the real estate market is not recovering, and there is a very strong possibility that one or more U.S. states will default on their debt in 2011 if a federal bailout of some states does not develop.

As I have written in my lead article today, I see events in motion that will have 2011 surprise on the downside.

Where the Market Stands; Where it’s Headed:

Immediate-term, I see the bear market rally in stocks that started in March of 2009 continuing. Short- to medium-term, I’m starting to turn bearish on the stock market.


http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/ ... tart-2011/
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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:42 am

MORGAN STANLEY’S 5 INVESTMENT THEMES FOR 2011 by Cullen Roche

Like most of the big banks and research firms Morgan Stanley is pretty optimistic about 2011. Their macro outlook was recently summarized as follows:

“US growth should accelerate, and double-dip and deflation risks are low. In relatively short order, the outlook for the US economy has improved quite significantly.... T

Within this bullish argument they’ve provided 5 investment themes for the upcoming year:


Risk on / risk off investing: We expect this binary sentiment approach to investing to continue into 2011, but it’s likely to dissipate as the recovery, at least in the US, gains traction and tail risks are reduced. In that case, a macro- focused market will give way to more fundamental analysis again.


Equities over bonds: The prospect of better growth bodes well for equities, while higher Treasury rates, which our strategists expect, is obviously bad for bonds. The massive inflows into bond funds the past couple of years, and out of equities, could quickly reverse if, for example, the 10Y US Treasury yield rises close to 4%, especially if it’s rapid, putting further upward pressure on yields.


EM over DM, but with bumps: The positive secular story in EM — contrasted by the structural problems in DM — and supported by fund flows (both cyclical and secular) continue to make it attractive relative to DM.


Real over nominal assets: The potential for higher inflation favors real assets and those that are inflation-protected. Commodities are a clear winner — indeed, higher commodity prices are a primary cause of inflation risks.

But so too are equities in the commodities complex (energy and materials), and those that have pricing power. We still expect inflation to be tame in DM — our US forecast is 2.1% in 2011 — the prospect of inflation could lead to multiple contraction, as has been the case historically.”


Source: Morgan Stanley


http://pragcap.com/morgan-stanleys-5-in ... s-for-2011
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