2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Thu Jul 21, 2011 10:34 am

Yes, I have to constantly ask myself whether I'm a So Loh ( Cantonese for Stupid ) or a Soros :P
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby kampungboy » Sat Aug 13, 2011 8:53 pm

I think I am one of the So Loh 8-) The fact is no one can consistantly beat the market. Like many gurus before him, John Paulson also hit a soft patch.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 36913.html
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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Tue Sep 13, 2011 8:56 am

Kass: Where I Now Stand By Doug Kass

I view share prices of many companies as having become generally more attractive over the last two months, but, at this point in time, there are four factors that keep me from being more heavily committed to equities:

1. the stock market's continued volatility and instability;
2. the growing sovereign debt contagion in Europe (and failure of their leaders/central bankers to respond intelligently);
3. continuing political partisanship (and failure of our leaders to properly confront our fiscal imbalances and to promote pro-growth policy); and
4. an inability to gauge whether the erosion in the August sentiment measures (impacted by U.S. stock market and domestic/overseas economic uncertainties) will translate into weakness in hard domestic economic data.

Scenario No. 1 (probability 15%): The pace of U.S. economic recovery reaccelerates to above-consensus forecasts

Scenario No. 2 (probability 15%): The U.S. enters a deep recession precipitated by a more pronounced negative feedback loop, a series of European bank failures and likely sovereign debt defaults in the eurozone.

Scenario No. 3 (probability 30%): The U.S. and Europe economies experience a shallow recession.

Scenario No. 4 (probability 40%): The U.S. and European economies
"muddle through" in a modest expansion mode

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11245827 ... ooyah_html
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:29 pm

MARKET OUTLOOK

• To reiterate, we need to see Europe have a plan to contain Italy and Spanish yields, and have a contingency bank recapitalization plan.

And even if we have this, the global recovery has been damaged, and markets will have to contend with this even if positive outcomes come from Euro leaders.

We thus still maintain a cautious-bearish stance on the STI and S&P500.

The situation is highly fluid, we could get our double wish list, the ECB
could cut rates to below 1% and stimulate the Eurozone, China could accelerate Rmb appreciation to stimulate an import boom.

These are all things that could reverse our bearish outlook for stocks but are event driven.

Source: Phillips

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/res ... 110928.pdf
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: 2011 - Predictions ( Financial )

Postby winston » Sat Oct 01, 2011 6:50 am

If you have nothing to do with your Saturday, then have a look at the predicions of the "experts" here.

Are they correct or are they way off mark ?

And if they are way off mark, why have you been wasting you time on them in the first place ?
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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