Market Sentiment 02 (Oct 10 - Jan 12)

[winston]

Dear All,

I have moved the various discussions on igmarket into the "US Brokerage Accounts" thread.

Take care,
Winston

[winston]

Weekly Review

VIX: 36.2; -0.07
VXN: 37.08; -0.24
VXO: 36.88; -0.29

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.16; -0.1


Bulls versus Bears:

Bulls: 34.4% versus 37.6%. After pausing a week, bulls fell below the important 35% level suggesting a bullish climate for stocks. Fourth week the bulls are below bears and the gap is widening. A powerful sentiment signal.

35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.


Bears: 45.2% versus 40.9%. Spiking higher and well above the bulls and the 35% level considered bullish for the market. Fourth week of bears over bulls and six weeks over the 35% threshold considered a bullish indicator and have made that important crossover of bulls.

Source: Investment House

[winston]

TOL:-

So what's the Sentiment now ?

People chasing stocks becuz they think that they will miss the boat ?

Machines are covering short positions ?

Everyone is scared stiff that they dont know what to do ?

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 28.24; -2.46
VXN: 28.69; -1.61
VXO: 27.15; -2.01

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.99; -0.06


Bulls versus Bears:

Bulls: 34.4% versus 34.4%. Holding steady after dropping form 37.6%. Still below the important 35% level suggesting a bullish climate for stocks.

Fifth week the bulls are below bears and the gap is widening. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.


Bears: 46.3% versus 45.2%. Increasing the negative views, well above the 40.9% reading just three weeks back. Still well above the bulls and the 35% level considered bullish for the market.

Fifth week of bears over bulls and six weeks over the 35% threshold considered a bullish indicator and have made that important crossover of bulls.


Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 31.32; -3.46
VXN: 31.42; -3.36
VXO: 30.14; -3.42

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.86; -0.52

Bulls versus Bears:

Bulls: 35.8% versus 34.4%. Rising for the first time in several weeks but still over 35%. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 45.0% versus 46.3%. Fading off the high but still well over 35%, the level considered bullish for the market.

Source: Investment House

[winston]

TOL:-

Everyone is smiling and joking on CNBC today.

Normally, how long does a "good feeling" lasts ?

One day ? Until the week-end, where they have some time to read up on reality ? One week ?

Two weeks ? Two months until year end ?

[profittaker]

Feels like a slamp dunk when indexes closed above resistance. Many TA has waited for this I guess.

[winston]

Bulls versus Bears:

Bulls: 40.0% versus 35.8%. Big jump in bulls as the cross back above bears. It could not last forever and with the surge in October just a matter of time.

Did its work, however, as the market surged off the readings below 35%. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action.

Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.


Bears: 37.9% versus 45.0%. Backing off hard as Bulls recover hard. As with bulls, an expected move given the rally.

Just now crossing back below bulls after six weeks of bears over bulls and seven weeks over the 35% threshold considered a bullish indicator.

Source: Investment House

[winston]

Weekly Review

VIX: 30.16; -0.34
VXN: 29.35; +0.05
VXO: 29.25; -0.18

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.13; +0.06


Bulls versus Bears:

Bulls: 43.2% versus 40.0% versus 35.8%. Bulls continue to climb for a second week after crossing back above bears.

It could not last forever and with the surge in October just a matter of time. Did its work, however, as the market surged off the readings below 35%.

35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.


Bears: 36.8% versus 37.9% versus 45.0%. Still on the decline but not as severe as the prior week. Seven weeks over the 35% threshold considered a bullish indicator.


Source: Investment House

[winston]

Bearish Sentiment Drops to 10 Month Low

Six weeks ago, the AAII weekly sentiment poll showed that bearish sentiment was near its highest levels for the year.

This week, bearish sentiment dropped to its lowest level since early January.

Wouldn't you know it, that just when individual investors thought it was safe to get back into the water, they got socked with yesterday's drop of over 3.6%!

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2 ... h-low.html