AAR & TOL 03 (Aug 09 - Dec 13)

Re: AAR & TOL 3 (Aug 09 - Aug 10)

Postby tonylim » Sat Apr 03, 2010 4:47 pm

May I ask a question ( May seem silly to some :oops: ) , what is AAR and TOL ? Thanks.
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Re: AAR & TOL 3 (Aug 09 - Aug 10)

Postby winston » Sat Apr 03, 2010 4:53 pm

Ha Ha ... This thread was actually used for our earlier brainstorming sessions:-


AAR = After Action Review

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

An after action review (AAR) is a structured review or de-brief process for analyzing what happened, why it happened, and how it can be done better, by the participants and those responsible for the project or event.

After-action reviews in the formal sense were originally developed by the U.S. Army although less structured de-briefs after events have existed since time immemorial.

1) What did we do right and should continue to do ?
2) What did we do wrong and should not do in the future ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/After_action_review


TOL = Thinking Out Loud
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: AAR & TOL 3 (Aug 09 - Aug 10)

Postby kennynah » Sat Apr 03, 2010 4:54 pm

AAR - extra spray

TOL - another version of AAR :lol: :lol:

but some here say

AAR - After Action Review (a military term used to describe an activity where commanders receive feedback from men on undertaken mission)

TOL : Thinking Out Loud
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Re: AAR & TOL 3 (Aug 09 - Aug 10)

Postby tonylim » Sat Apr 03, 2010 5:02 pm

OIC, many thanks to Winston and Kenny.
Have a nice weekend.
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Re: AAR & TOL 3 (Aug 09 - Aug 10)

Postby Aspellian » Sun Apr 04, 2010 10:28 pm

winston wrote:
3) Equities have rebounded and do you want to be buying Equities at this level ? I think it would be back to good old fashion stock-picking. There may be some bargains left but the markets have already priced in a strong economic recovery.


Thanks Winston for your thoughts.

I also find it difficult to find any good stock to buy at current valuations. things just go higher and higher as the various catalysts of specific stocks are being priced in.

I will also aim to lock in profits whenever i have any (as upside now is limited because downtrend barely panned out as planned). Probably buy/sell a few stocks for each cycle of uptrend/downtrend and i will be so grateful.

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Re: AAR & TOL 3 (Aug 09 - Aug 10)

Postby Chinaman » Wed Jun 23, 2010 2:30 pm

This few days my laptop over-load by waching TVU WC game..hang liao.
While clearing the folder I found this old article abt AAR….tot of returning back to the originator…hahaha
.

After Action Review ( AAR ) : The US Army has an AAR after any operation.

They will ask two simple questions:-
1) What did we do right and therefore, should continue to do?
2) What did we do wrong and therefore, should try to improve upon ?

This AAR idea has since been used in the corporate world.
As this is a new year, let's do an AAR on your investments. I will start first.

1) What did I do right in 2007 and therefore, should continue to do in 2008?

a) I was right on various Commodity stocks. This came from a lot of reading.

b) I sold when people were greedy and bought when people were panicking
c) I did not listen to the people who were saying that a lot of the Chinese QDII money will be going to Singapore. In fact, nothing came at all.

d) I did not listen to the people who said that a lot of Chinese Money will be going to HK thru the "Direct Train" scheme. The scheme has been postponed indefinitely.

e) I kept plenty of cash handy and when the market corrected, I has the resources to buy some good stocks

f) I bought when the short term players have finished their selling and sold when the short term players have finished their buying

2) What did I do wrong in 2007 and therefore, should try to improve upon in 2008?

a) I still allowed so called "experts" to influence my investment decisions. "Experts" as in young Analysts who have not seen a bear market or just plain lousy Analysts. In 2008, I will still listen to these experts for ideas but I will rely more on my common sense.

b) I should be greedier. I should have sit longer on some of my winning positions. In 2008, I will use more trailing Stop-Loss

c) I will not listen to things that I cannot verify eg. Stock market crash in years ending in 1987, 1997, 2007, prophesies, fortune tellers, Astrologers, Feng Shui Masters etc.

d) I will not base my investment decisions on rumors or things that I cannot verify eg. Potential A share listing, potential M&A, potential Asset Injection by parent etc.

e) I should run faster when there is any hint of trouble. Sell First then Investigate. I can always buy back later if I'm wrong. A 1% extra in commission is nothing compare to a potential loss of maybe 20%
f) I should have a plan before any major event plays. A plan will allow me to act decisively when it is time to buy or sell

just a recap, u know who is the writer....?
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Re: AAR & TOL 3 (Aug 09 - Aug 10)

Postby iam802 » Wed Jun 23, 2010 2:49 pm

Chinaman wrote:...
just a recap, u know who is the writer....?



Such a lengthy post. It takes great strength and knowledge to be able to write such stuffs.

Who do you think can write this ? :lol: :lol:
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

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Re: AAR & TOL 3 (Aug 09 - Aug 10)

Postby millionairemind » Wed Jun 23, 2010 2:51 pm

iam802 wrote:
Chinaman wrote:...
just a recap, u know who is the writer....?



Such a lengthy post. It takes great strength and knowledge to be able to write such stuffs.

Who do you think can write this ? :lol: :lol:


I know I know.... :P

Only one person with the depth to write this....

Hidden Content:
Winston la.. :D
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Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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Re: AAR & TOL 3 (Aug 09 - Aug 10)

Postby LenaHuat » Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:38 pm

Yes, I endorse this. :D
Please be forewarned that you are reading a post by an otiose housewife. ImageImage**Image**Image@@ImageImageImage
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Re: AAR & TOL 3 (Aug 09 - Aug 10)

Postby winston » Sat Jul 31, 2010 8:51 am

After Action Review


It has been a good few weeks so it's time to do some AAR:-


1) What did I do right and should continue to do ?

a) Initiated positions even when the parrots on CNBC were calling for Europe to crash and burn. I was quite confident that when the EUR dropped so swiftly, there would be a swift technical rebound due to short-covering.

Unfortunately, I dont have a vehicle to bet directly on that EUR rebound. And even if I was wrong, I was quite confident that the European Contagion will still not hit my Asian stocks that quickly.

b) Initiated bigger positions

c) Initiated positions only when there was a strong catalyst or a potential strong technical rebound


What did I do wrong and should try to improve on ?

a) I'm probably too conservative. I am betting with only 30% of my portfolio. I will probably need to raise that to 40% on the next round.

b) Although I'm taking bigger bets, I'm still going for coffee money only. I need to be more greedy and sometimes back up the truck when the set-up is right.

c) I'm selling too early. Irrational Exuberance can last longer than the Logical Mind. I have reviewed my selling triggers and hopefully, I would be selling better. It's very hard not to take windfall profits though. My goal is to sell above the 75th percentile of the trading range and to wait until the one-day reversal before selling.

d) I have been impatient and have been chasing stocks. While I want to be aggressive, I still need to wait for the right set-up. My goal here is to buy on the 50% retracement.


Please do feel free to comment on the above. I'm now taking a trading break and am using this time to analyse my trading records over the past 5 weeks...
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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