InvestIdeas

TOL:-

A few months ago, some guys on CNBC were saying that prices were too cheap and that things were priced at Depression levels while we are only facing a Recession.

Now that things have rebounded, is the reverse also true ? Are things being priced now assuming that there will be strong growth while we will face slow growth ?

TOL:-

Now that the correction is here, are u gonna be buying on the dip, standing aside or shorting the market ?

In addition, a catalyst has now emerged ie. bank lending restriction in China will curb money flowing into the Property & Share Markets. Is that catalyst also strong enough to reverse the flow into Emerging Markets ?

Commodities buying by China is also supposedly slowing down. Will this also hurt Commodities and shares of Commodities company ?

And if there's a correction in the Equity markets, wouldnt the properties be affected as well and therefore, shares in property companies too ?

Those who has been buying on dips over the past few days are now under the water. Will they average down or cut losses ? Or maybe double down? There's now a new generation of heroes who has been buying on dips and making alot of money

TOL.

Many equity markets in Asia Pac made new high in early Aug 09. Included are SSEC, HSI, STI, NIKK, KOSPI and TWII. Same goes for Euroland.

Among these, SSEC is the first to pause and reverse into a down trend. Upto 14 Aug 09, the decline was 12%, from 3478 to 3047, not including today’s market action. One of my favourite long term trend indicator is the weekly MA (10) as it is less whippy. In the week ending 14 Aug 09, the SSEC index has fallen below the 10 WMA since early 2009. The decline is fast turning into a market crash ie exceeding 20%.

Okay, let’s review three of the indices and the fibo retracements:
from Oct 07 to-date:

Top Bottom Decline Current Top Advance Retracement

STI 3906 1455 2451 2701 1246 50.8%
SSEC 6124 1665 4459 3478 1813 40.7%
SPX 1576 667 909 1018 351 38.6%

Going by past bear market rallies, fibo retracements of 38.2% or 50% are not unusual. SPX at 1014 is 38,2% whilst 50% shall bring the index upto 1122. Interestingly, in 1929, INDU declined by 48% from 3 Sept 29 to 13 Nov 29. From Nov 29 to 17 Apri 30 (5.13 months), INDU rebounded and advanced by 48% or retraced by 52.5%. There were 5 more declines, ending in Jul 32; by then INDU had dropped by 89% from its top in Sep 29!!!

TOL:-

Maybe this is a Trading Market...

Buy on Dips, Sell on Rebound. Short on Rebound, Cover on Panic

In the past few weeks, some HK listed companies mentioned that they want to list in Shanghai and their price jumped on the news eg. China Mobile. BEA, HSBC etc.

The same situation is happening in Singapore. Some S-Chips expressed their intention to list in HK and their price are jumping...

I would go back to basics. Look at the company itself. If they have just reported a 40% decline in EPS, whether they list in HK, Spore or Shanghai, do you think people would be interested in their stock ? Do you think the HK people are that stupid and would be lining up to buy a S-Chip ? They are spoilt for choice in HK and can buy the big SOEs. So why would they wanna buy a small dinky S-Chip company when they can buy the govt supported SOE ? And how long is the process to list in HK or Shanghai ? And how many companies are in front of them in the line ?

Traders always makes use of positive news to pump up the price and then later dump the shares. If you think you can run faster than these traders, then by all means try your luck. Dont regret later and complain that you did not take action to buy. Now's your chance to buy .. LOL

Do you remember the time you were chasing the S-Chips becuz a few "expert" Analysts were saying that the QDII would be flowing to Spore ? So where's the QDII money ?

winston wrote:Traders always makes use of positive news to pump up the price and then later dump the shares. If you think you can run faster than these traders, then by all means try your luck. Dont regret later and complain that you did not take action to buy. Now's your chance to buy .. LOL

Do you remember the time you were chasing the S-Chips becuz a few "expert" Analysts were saying that the QDII would be flowing to Spore ? So where's the QDII money ?

Why must it always be like that? many retail investors really believe what the analysts report and what is printed in the newspaper-biz section... many investors will be burnt. it is a suckers game - analysts (from brokerages) are like sucker fishes that slowly suck out your gills, your fins and even your eye-balls!! And you still thought that analysts so good - help you to dig through the "shit-load" of information to give you an unbiased opinion!! THINK TWICE:

Moral of the Story - always be on your guard even against sucker-fish who helps to eat your shit(-load of information)!! You may be the real sucker eating shit!!!

this almost made it to the List of 7 Deadly Trading/Investing Sins...

Do not blindly believe anal-ists' reports

kennynah wrote:Do not blindly believe anal-ists' reports

hahahahha!!! Good one!!

when i was a kid, i work in the old turf club ....doing mechanical jobs...
fixing chairs & bench in on the stand. I also get to fix the chairs in the vip room....
someone told me, the only people making $$ are sitting in the vip on the top....& those masses at the bottom shouting & screaming are the ones contributing the the income of the vip rooms.
it is a 80/20 game......or maybe 95/5??

Within the VIP rooms,...it will be another 80/20 again.

Not all horse owners or VIP will win.