Investment Strategies 01 (Nov 08 - May 10)

by **ichew** » Thu May 13, 2010 10:59 pm

i agree tat one needs to bet bigger then can see wah$

a 10% return on $100k and a 10% return on $10k is very different

and if we r not confident tat this trade will give us at least a 10%, why r we wasting time on it?

ymmv :-)

by **winston** » Sat May 15, 2010 7:18 am

How to Play It

First of all, if you have any property in China or Hong Kong, I'd hit the bid, yesterday if possible. The market resembles nothing more than Wiley E. Coyote just before he realizes he's walking on air. A collapse in Chinese property will almost certainly have spillover effects on other markets in the Orient.

As I've mentioned before, I think real estate in most parts of the world is a dead asset class for many years in the future. But if you've been thinking about an apartment in the Orient, there are likely to be some bargains in the next few years.

Second, the consequences for most commodities are likely to be grim. Prices of industrial metals have floated on a rising tide of demand from places like Dubai and China for years. It's over in Dubai and nearly over in China. Worse, there are stories of many Chinese having stockpiled large amounts of metal, especially copper, as a speculation.

As demand falls, that material could be forced onto the market at exactly the wrong time. Base metals and base metal stocks impress me as a bad bet, at least until this shakes out.

Third, Australia and Brazil are two places that have profited handsomely from the long boom in China, supplying the Chinese with massive amounts of raw materials, including coal and iron ore. That's likely to come to an end for quite a while, with negative fallout for both economies. Brazil, especially, has been too hot for too long.

Fourth, a major upset in China is not going to help the earnings of companies anywhere â€“ or their securities. And it's certainly not going to help the dollar or Treasuries, which will both see a lot of selling from China. Of course, their fate is pretty well sealed anyway, but this is another nail, railroad spike-sized, in their coffin.

Fifth, recognize that one of the few beneficiaries of a global monetary crisis is going to be gold. The fact it's quadrupled from the lows of a decade ago is trivial in the context.

Source: A Chinese Conundrum by Doug Casey

by **winston** » Sun May 16, 2010 8:25 am

TOL:-

I was going through my trading records.

It looks like I'm making more money on my shorter term trades eg. Scalping or Swing Trading, rather than on my longer term investments ( other than on those gold coins ).

What's wrong here ? Is it because I'm Scalping and Swing Trading more, so naturally the results would show that I'm making more on the shorter term trades ?

The next step is to bet bigger and bet shorter.

by **kanglc** » Sun May 16, 2010 10:12 am

winston wrote:TOL:-

I was going through my trading records.

It looks like I'm making more money on my shorter term trades eg. Scalping or Swing Trading, rather than on my longer term investments ( other than on those gold coins ).

What's wrong here ? Is it because I'm Scalping and Swing Trading more, so naturally the results would show that I'm making more on the shorter term trades ?

The next step is to bet bigger and bet shorter.

Congratulations! (not for making more money, but for discovering how)

by **winston** » Sun May 16, 2010 10:52 am

kanglc wrote: Congratulations! (not for making more money, but for discovering how)

Ha Ha ... there's also an old saying: Whomever that the gods wanna destroy, they first make him confident.

by **Helium** » Sun May 16, 2010 2:19 pm

So, what are we looking for in the volatile markets?

I'd like to see the Hercules' strength ... !!

A poem - Hercules, hero of song and story! Hercules, winner of ancient glory! Fighting for the right, fighting with his might; With the strength of ten Ordinary men!