EUR 04 (Nov 10 - Jan 12)

[millionairemind]

bro 802..
be aware that ECB could suddenly hike rates anytime now...

The Euro now super strong..... just not too long ago, they were shouting for parity with the USD over at CNBC...

[kennynah]

IMO, it's all abt the stage of anticipation of this impending rate hike we are in. That calls for judgement. The euro has steadily climbed and this has got to be based on the market's perception that ecb may eventually have to raise rates.

Whether ecb actually raises rates in the weeks or months ahead, is quite immaterial, though if ecb officials begin to hint even more strongly it'll do so, then the trend can become even more bullish. But by the time ecb actually raises rates, the early Long players will surely sell into strength, leaving the late party goers holding onto a losing proposition.

I think, we all know, that market moves on mass psychology more so that hard facts.

It's a game of pre-emotive strikes, something Americans are now so familiar with

[winston]

Vested

TOL:-

1) If they do not raise rates on Thursday, would there be a sell-off in the EUR ?

2) If they do raise rates, would Portugal be downgraded again ?

3) Would the Japanese be selling some of their EUR holdings and using it to buy Commodities for rebuilding effoerts ?

[eauyong]

Schedule:
European Central Bank Rate Decision (APR 7) @ S'pore 19:45 Forecast 1.25%, Previous 1.00%

[winston]

Vested

EUR @ 1.4836.

But if I sell, they will convert it to SGD and I dont want my money in SGD.

So I have to look for another currency to convert the money to ...

[winston]

Vested

3 REASONS THE DOLLAR’S DECLINE WILL CONTINUE by Cullen Roche

The largest tailwind for the commodity bull market is set to continue according to FX analyst Kit Juckes at Societe Generale. Juckes believes the Euro is headed back to 1.55 EUR/USD:

“EURUSD is likely to once again overshoot and head for 1.55. Current dip is providing buying opportunities for the EUR against USD as:

â–  The Fed stays on hold more than is currently expected.
â–  German economy is booming despite the level of the euro.
■ Euro’s fate will depend on how the ECB reacts to developments in the center vs periphery. Assuming peripheral risks stay constant this is bull euro.

http://pragcap.com/3-reasons-the-dollar ... l-continue

[winston]

vested

DJ China Buying More Euro With FX Reserves - Standard Chartered


Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

I have been hearing about the collapse of the EUR for more than a decade. A few clowns even talked about parity to the USD on CNBC not too long ago ...

vested

The European Union Is About to Collapse By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, June 21, 2011

The euro is toast.

The problems in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and other countries are about to destroy the European Union (EU). And as the EU breaks apart, the euro will dissolve right along with it.

The euro had a good run. Twelve years of easing global credit helped hide the growing pains of one of the world's youngest currencies. But as the euro enters its 13th year, it's beginning to show all the blemishes and insecurity of a pimply teenager.

The well-intentioned experiment was destined to fail from the start. There were just too many countries with too many governments and too many cultures. There were too many accounting methods, too many differing values, and too few checks and balances.

During good times, the differences didn't matter. Strong economies hid the incompetence of the euro-zone governments.

Now, however, things are different. Citizens are questioning the value of being part of an association that doesn't appear to benefit any of its members.

Think about this…

Last year, German citizens were asked to pony up money to fund the bulk of a Greece bailout package. Germany lent money to Greece with the provision that Greece would take action to bring its budget under control.

Now, one year later, Greece hasn't changed a thing… and, predictably, it needs more money to stave off bankruptcy. The EU is once again asking Germany to pony up the bulk of the funds with the provision Greece will really do something this time.

So the German government keeps paying, and the German people see their hard-earned tax dollars going to benefit strangers in another country – strangers who appear to have a relaxed lifestyle, now at the expense of the German workers.

The EU is trying to force Germany to bail out Greece to keep the union intact.

Don't be surprised to see Germany back out of the European Union.

Meanwhile, over in Greece – they don't want the money. The Greeks are protesting to keep the bailout money out of their country. They would rather default, rather declare bankruptcy and wipe the slate clean, than take on more burdensome debt and be forced to change their standard of living.

The EU is trying to force Greece to take the bailout money to keep the union intact.

Don't be surprised to see Greece back out of the European Union, either.

Then, of course, there's Portugal, Italy, and Spain. All have problems similar to Greece's. All have taken bailout money. And all are on the verge of needing another bailout.

The EU is going to want Germany to fund the bailouts. And the EU is going to force the troubled countries to take the money.

Do you see the pattern here?

In an effort to keep the EU together, the union is forcing nearly all its members to do something none of them wants to do. That seems to be an impossible task. Surely, many countries will see a greater benefit to leaving the EU and operating in their own self interest.

The European Union will dissolve. It'll happen sooner than most people think. And as the EU dissolves, so will the euro.

The euro has been surprisingly strong over the past year. It's up about 15% versus the dollar. That probably has more to do with Ben Bernanke running the dollar printing presses full time than the perceived strength in the euro zone.

( so did u short the EUR ? )

That strength will not continue. As the "realization stage" comes to grips with the problems in Europe, the euro is destined to fall, and fall hard.

Similar to betting on higher interest rates in the U.S., betting on a declining euro seems like an excellent trade.


Source: Growth Stock Wire

[kennynah]

if u look at the Euro currency, it does not lie about its view of the current Greece situation... at above 1.4 to the USD... it is telling me that the forex market is not fearful of the possibility that Greece will default on her loans.. in fact, i seem to get the impression the forex market is not even bothered about Greece situation anymore...she's been written off...

[winston]

Vested. And was he also one of those guyss calling for parity a while back ?

How to Play the Collapse of the Euro by Alexander Green
Thursday, July 28, 2011: Issue #1566

The Eurozone is a sight to behold.

Economic growth is anemic. Greece is careening toward default on its sovereign debt. Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain may not be far behind. The break-up of the currency block can’t be ruled out.

And yet … the currency is up seven percent against the dollar this year, to over $1.40. How long can this gravity-defying feat continue?

Not indefinitely. Understand that the rise in the euro against the dollar is, in part, a reflection of our own economic and political woes here at home. The Swiss franc, for instance, is up 16 percent against the dollar year to date and more than 30 percent over the past year. (And Switzerland, a landlocked nation with a smaller population than New York City, is hardly an economic powerhouse.)

Yet economic and political problems in the Eurozone are much more severe than they are here. Debt as a percentage of GDP is higher in many countries. There are no good political solutions. In the months ahead, boatloads of money will be made betting against the euro…
The Eurozone’s Debt-Disaster Continues

Richer Eurozone countries like Germany and France are tired of bailing out their more profligate brethren. The citizens of weaker countries are angry that monetary policy has been outsourced to Frankfurt and their governments are being forced to adopt harsh austerity measures.

In Spain, for instance, unemployment is 21 percent. The typical Spaniard would love to see the local currency devalued to increase the attractiveness of its exports and seaside resorts. But the peseta is long gone – and so are any opportunities to manipulate fiscal and monetary measures to kick-start the Spanish economy.

Even more ominous, there’s no mechanism in place for any of these weaker countries to leave the Eurozone. Even if Greece could drop out, for instance, it would be a disaster for that country. Its debts would have to be re-denominated in a new currency, causing interest rates to skyrocket, deficits to worsen and economic growth to crumble. And since European banks own huge amounts of Greek debt, the chaos would only spread.

This is what it means to be stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Greek citizens are angry that other countries are dictating their domestic policies. This is equally true for the other weak sisters in the Eurozone. Many of them chafe at the idea of staying and yet can’t imagine leaving, either.

Given this structural problem, the likelihood is that the euro will fall substantially in the weeks and months ahead and perhaps trade at parity with the dollar, as it did in the 90s.

How Do You Play the Collapse of the Euro?

Personally, I think it’s far too risky to bet against the euro with futures and options. Far superior, in my view, is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that bets against the euro: Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN (NYSE: DRR).

This fund is double short the euro. That means if the euro falls 15 percent, the fund will appreciate approximately 30 percent. The reverse is also true, of course. But the problems in the Eurozone are not going away any time soon. It’s tough to imagine the euro staging much of a rally from here.

Far more likely is that the euro will slide as problems in this part of the world worsen. And that will be good news for holders of this double-short ETF.

http://www.investmentu.com/2011/July/ho ... -euro.html