AAR & TOL 02 (Nov 08 - Jul 09)

[kennynah]

TOL :

first, determine outlook, whether range bound, up or down AND in what time frame; ie 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, etc

then, look at resistances and supports regions

execute the correct strategy (whether it be a Long, Short, Volatility or Non-volatile)

assess risk/reward ratio, execute only if meaningful to one's investment objective.

be very aware of when key data will be announced; such as qtrly earnings reports as this will swing prices

initiate opening at predetermined entry points, usually based on TA (eg, retrace back to support/resistance line, or MACD cross over, or RSI overbought.sold region, or bollinger band extremes, spiked/tanked implied volatility,etc)

place stops(mental or physical) at those stops.

once stops are hit, exit or adjust (based on the following rule below)
>>> adjust only if initial outlook changed considerably from initial outlook

juicy annie kwan...for me...

[winston]

Thanks K for your kind comments. Take care, Winston

[winston]

TOL:-

It's so difficult to stay invested in a winning position nowadays. As there's has been so many false rallies, the tendency is to take profits whenever possible. Dont even have the patient to monitor Resistances or One Day Reversals.

Maybe it has been a while since one can make some decent profits by going Long in the market. What happens if this rally is the Real Mc. Coy ? What happens if this rally does have leg and can last until CNY ? 5% a day for 13 days does equals another 65% gain

[b0rderc0llie]

I remembered you said that different strategies work for different scenarios.

A buy and hold strategy will keep you invested in a winning position, and benefit from a rally which is the Real Mc. Coy.

A short and hold strategy will benefit if it is a bear market rally, and the downtrend continues after that.

A trading strategy will benefit if the market is ranged bound.

But nobody knows for sure what the current scenario now is

[winston]

Hi BC,

I'm betting that this is a trading market so that's why I'm questioning my behavior, to crystalize my thinking.

Take care,
Winston

[b0rderc0llie]

All the best then. Hope you are correct

[kennynah]

w is one top notch trader that hardly takes himself for granted, despite many many years of market experiences....

learning such humility will serve us all very well....

[winston]

TOL:-

Have you noticed the complacency in the market ?

VIX is dropping in the US

Spore is going up although fundamentals are detiorating.., The market is behaving as if the slow down will be over in 6 months to 12 months..

In China & HK, it's the same thing as well. Up 10% t0 20% on no news ...

I'm waiting for it to get abit euphoric before shorting it, maybe just b4 the speech by Obama and certainly b4 CNY ...

[winston]

TOL:-

In HK & China, the volume is very high but the indices are not going anywhere. It looks like Distribution to me ...

In Spore, it's still going up in price. Pumping it up to dump on you ?

In the US, the indices have not been going anywhere. Again, I think it's Distribution ...

What am I missing ??

[kennynah]

i am of the opinion that a correction is imminent but this is purely speculative... if we proceed with this opinion, we mustn't be too obtused in sticking to this idea...if after sometime, indexes are still trending upwards...we must admit our opinion is not in sync with rest of market...and hence wrong...