AAR & TOL 02 (Nov 08 - Jul 09)

[winston]

TOL:-

I wrote somewhere to remind myself to be patient and not to take action too early. Always buy a put on the rebound and not on the way down, in case you are whip-sawed. Preferably at R2 or R3.

In addition, there's no strong catalyst for a drop. Unemployment numbers are not strong enough a catalyst. It has to be something unexpected. Maybe very bad earnings during earnings season, that would trigger a round of downgrades by the Analysts.

Fear is not present which is good. People are complacent so they would be buying on dips even after the market has turn downwards, thinking that liquidity will forever be there.

[Aspellian]

TOL:-

Fear is not present which is good. People are complacent so they would be buying on dips even after the market has turn downwards, thinking that liquidity will forever be there.

why do you say that lack of fear is good when you are waiting for market to drop?
is it because when the drop do come, it will be big time drop as a result of complacency?

[winston]

Ha Ha... Yes, when you are expecting the market to drop, you are hoping that people will buy on dips, while the market continue it's drop..

Having said that, I dont see any steep drop ahead so the best can happen is just a trading market ..

[chaibu]

frankly...duno what those turtles, tortoise, orguis, etc...ya..read the book...nice to read..inspirational...but it's just a man's account of his past and trading experiences...nothing like getting your hands into the market..and learn the hard way... just play the game diligently is enough... alot theory...not much use one... like learning how to swim on dry land... wont ever make it...

something to back you up...

Can you really explain to a fish what it's like to walk on land? Buffett asks. "One day on land is worth
a thousand years of talking about it and one day running a business has exactly the same value."

[BlackCat]

Different traders have different strategy, what works for me might not work for you. You have to explore what kind of trader you are, that fits your personality. There is no right or wrong method as long as you make money.

Thanks for the reminder. Not intending to start an argument...hope my posts did not come across as too stubborn or argumentative. Just trying to write down my thoughts as I adapt my investment strategy...all the best.

[winston]

Hi BC,

I did not find your post offensive and I like the variety.

Take care,
Winston

[kennynah]

Different traders have different strategy, what works for me might not work for you. You have to explore what kind of trader you are, that fits your personality. There is no right or wrong method as long as you make money.

Thanks for the reminder. Not intending to start an argument...hope my posts did not come across as too stubborn or argumentative. Just trying to write down my thoughts as I adapt my investment strategy...all the best.

not offensive at all.... dont worry.... perhaps i come across as being impatient... pardon me...

anyways.... as a down to earth suggestion... read, and read alot...it is a good start...then, practice...and i assure you, you must be prepared to begin losing money...so, dont dump all in the 1st time... if you have $10K to spare... use 1K...almost 100%, you will eventually lose this 1K...

the impt thing is the practical lessons you learn from losing this 1K...which must outweigh the dollar value of this 1K...and then...put in another 1K... and i can also almost assure you...you are likely to lose this 1K as well...

this will go on for some time..BUT along the way...you will come to some positive realisation....and when you refer to this thread again, you will know what i mean...

good luck.... take care

[kennynah]

frankly...duno what those turtles, tortoise, orguis, etc...ya..read the book...nice to read..inspirational...but it's just a man's account of his past and trading experiences...nothing like getting your hands into the market..and learn the hard way... just play the game diligently is enough... alot theory...not much use one... like learning how to swim on dry land... wont ever make it...

something to back you up...

Can you really explain to a fish what it's like to walk on land? Buffett asks. "One day on land is worth
a thousand years of talking about it and one day running a business has exactly the same value."

yeah.... it is quite difficult to explain....indeed... we all have to go thru then cycle....just like learning how to bicycle...

[Poles]

Different traders have different strategy, what works for me might not work for you. You have to explore what kind of trader you are, that fits your personality. There is no right or wrong method as long as you make money.

Thanks for the reminder. Not intending to start an argument...hope my posts did not come across as too stubborn or argumentative. Just trying to write down my thoughts as I adapt my investment strategy...all the best.

not offensive at all.... dont worry.... perhaps i come across as being impatient... pardon me...

anyways.... as a down to earth suggestion... read, and read alot...it is a good start...then, practice...and i assure you, you must be prepared to begin losing money...so, dont dump all in the 1st time... if you have $10K to spare... use 1K...almost 100%, you will eventually lose this 1K...

the impt thing is the practical lessons you learn from losing this 1K...which must outweigh the dollar value of this 1K...and then...put in another 1K... and i can also almost assure you...you are likely to lose this 1K as well...

this will go on for some time..BUT along the way...you will come to some positive realisation....and when you refer to this thread again, you will know what i mean...

good luck.... take care

i agree, you learn more when losing $$$ and it gets "tattoo" in your head......
winning sometimes get abit carried away......

[winston]

As this thread is getting a bit long, I have moved my bi-monthly Investmet Ideas into new thread titled, " Winston's Investment Ideas", located in the Blog Subsection.

I will continue to use this thread to brianstorm...

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I have been thinking about what Jim Rogers said the other day. He's very patient and would always wait for an opportunity to materialize..

The example that he used:-
It's like somebody putting money for him at a corner and all he has to do is just go to that corner to pick the money up. I guess this requires alot of patient and when the opportunity materialize, dont hesitate to take action.

How do we recognize an opportunity ? I guess it first depends on our familiarity with that Asset Class eg. Property, Bond, Equity or Commodity etc..

When an asset has fallen 80% to 90% ? When prices have dropped steeply, while fundamentals have detiorated only slightly ?