InvestIdeas

what's the reason for Euro to fall (against USD)? QE2 suppose to devalue USD and probably make Euro go higher? Fly to safety again?

May be because of this..

Analysts attributed the rise in banking bond yields to comments which emerged from the EU summit last month that a condition of future bail-outs of euro-zone members would be that bondholders would shoulder some of the burden, as well as the fact that the Government was already enforcing burden-sharing on Anglo subordinated bond holders.
Source: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/fin ... 53267.html

why? i oso duno....

"Whatever the debate within the euro area about the future permanent crisis resolution mechanism, and the potential for private sector involvement in that mechanism, we are clear that this does not apply to any outstanding debt and any program under current instruments," the ministers from France, Italy Germany, the U.K. and Spain wrote in a statement provided to reporters at the Group of 20 summit in Seoul.

"Any new mechanism would only come into effect after mid-2013 with no impact whatsoever on the current arrangements," they wrote.

http://www.djnewsplus.com/ge/article/SB ... bt+Worries

The reason is very simple. It has gone up a lot. All the way from 1.20 to 1.42.

When it's too high, it will go and look for a reason to drop.

Hmm.... I'm talking like an "expert"

EUR at 1.3486 now.

Sliced pass the first support at 1.39 easily and now about to touch the secondary support of 1.34.

And the EUR was below 1.34 this morning. That was a good move from 1.42 not too long ago .....


THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING EFSF by TPC

One of the many flaws in the EFSF bailout mechanism is that it is funded by the very problem children that it is intended to save.

A good way to think of the fund is to imagine California, New Jersey, Nevada, Illinois, Texas, New York and Pennsylvania coming together to create a bailout fund.

Of course, several of these states are financial disasters. When a country applies for aid to the EFSF they no longer contribute to the fund. So what’s going on as the dominoes fall is that the fund is actually shrinking (via FT Alphaville):

http://pragcap.com/incredible-shrinking-efsf

EURO has retraced a fair bit from the highs of around 1.42 and it is now sitting right at the edge of the kumo support at 1.34

On the Daily Ichimoku Chart, We have 2 confirmations for a bearish trade and the kumo support at this level is crucial :

1. A Tenkan sen – Kijun sen bearish cross has been sighted

2. Leading kumo has twisted suggesting that a change in trend.

However, it is important to note that there is a thick kumo on the Ichimoku Weekly Chart and it will provide support for the EURO at this level.

From the Daily Chart, we can also see that the Kijun sen (trend line) is flattening. As the price level has move away from Tenkan sen, there should be a little bounce here with the price moving back towards the Tenkan sen and Kijun sen. (Moving back into equilibrium)

Comments by Don Coxe in Barrons:-

If you are a European, you see a currency that isn't backed by any government, any tax system or any army. It's a faith-based initiative.

Everything that you have is denominated in euros, and now you've got all these countries, in the southern tier of Europe and as far away as the Irish Sea, that are in deep, deep trouble and that have to be bailed out.

So what is the value of the euro going to be? Well, these people are buying coins.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB500 ... rticle%3D1

EUR at 1.32 now.

And 1.42 was the range high.

My takeaway:
1) When something looks too over-valued, that's the time to watch it.
2) Dont let those sayings like "the trend is your friend" affects your focus
3) Wait for the reversal.
4) When it reverses, dont hesitate to take a position
5) And vice-versa if you are going long

I dont trade currencies nowadays so it's easy for me to tcss here

EUR @ 1.2987