EUR 04 (Nov 10 - Jan 12)

[winston]

This Trade Could Pay for Your Holiday Shopping Spree By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Most folks think it's crazy to buy the euro right now.

Europe is in a recession. Austerity measures will hamper growth for years to come. One eurozone country after another is teetering on the brink of collapse. The whole European Union is ready to dissolve.

So as crazy as it sounds, now is the time to buy the euro.

Before you dismiss this trade as an idea brought on by one too many brandy-laced egg-nogs at a weekend holiday party, take a look at this chart of the euro…

This chart plots the euro against its Bollinger Bands (BBs). Bollinger Bands help define the most probable trading range for a security. Any move outside the BBs indicates an extreme condition – one that is likely to reverse direction.

One of the most successful trading strategies this year has been to patiently wait for extreme conditions and then to bet on the other side. And today, we have a good technical argument in favor of buying the euro.

The blue arrows on the chart point to the five times this year the euro has broken below its lower BB. Three of the four previous times led to a bounce back up to the upper Bollinger Band – an average gain of 5% in less than one month.

Even buying the short-lived bounce in September, in which the euro fell to a new low in early October, generated a profit for anyone who held on until late October.

The euro fell below its lower Bollinger Band last Thursday. So we have another "buy" signal for the currency everyone loves to hate.

This isn't a long-term signal, of course. Nobody in their right mind would buy the euro right now as a long-term investment. But the short-term conditions have hit such extreme oversold levels that a bounce is likely.

If you're looking for a fast trade to help pay for some of those holiday shopping sprees, buying the euro right here looks like an idea that just might work.

But be sure to sell it when it runs back up to its upper Bollinger Band.

www.growthstockwire.com

[winston]

The euro was higher at around $1.3110, above an 11-month low of $1.2860, with traders seeing major support around $1.3000, the December 14 low.

The euro briefly touched a one-week high near $1.32 on Wednesday.

Source: Reuters

[winston]

R-USD: Momentum Points Lower By Mohammed Isah

NEW YORK (fxtechstrategy.com) -- The euro-dollar (EUR-USD) currency pair's recent corrective recovery attempt failed, and the pair closed this past week only marginally higher.

EUR-USD is likely to return to the 1.2945 level, its Dec. 14 low, in the coming week.

A breach of that level would put the euro-dollar currency pair on course to weaken toward 1.2874, its January 2011 low, followed by 1.2587.

EUR-USD's relative strength index is bearish and pointing lower, supporting this view.

Alternatively, the currency pair will have to break and hold at more than 1.3197 and then at more than 1.3212, its Nov. 25 low, to reduce its medium-term downside pressure.

If it breaches those levels, it could see further gains toward 1.3419, the Nov. 17 low, and then 1.3547, its Dec. 2 high. Further out, 1.4241, the Oct. 27 high, and 1.4342, the daily falling trend line, would be the next upside targets.

Overall, the euro-dollar currency pair continues to hold on to its medium-term downside bias.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11356535 ... L_btb_html

[kennynah]

at 2011 all time low ....
<1.3 at 1.2890

[kennynah]

if eur closes today's session at about 1.2940...i think, we might get a decent rebound upwards on Fri....

[winston]

Who has not heard that Europe is in trouble ? Time to kill all the shorts ...

Year-end bets against euro hit record By Robin Wigglesworth, FT.com

(Financial Times) -- Hedge funds increased their bets against the euro to a record level in the last week of 2011, increasing pressure on the embattled European common currency as it enters the most testing year of its history.

Many hedge funds lost money betting against the euro for much of last year, as the currency remained unexpectedly strong despite the continent's worsening financial crisis.

However, the euro suffered a poor November and December and ended the year as the worst performing major currency, dropping to a 10-year low against the yen and a one-year low against the US dollar.

This triggered a renewed surge in bets against the currency in the week ending December 27, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the US, released late in the US on Friday.

The number of short positions in the euro -- where investors benefit from a decline in prices -- outweighed long positions by a record 127,900 contracts by December 27, up from 113,700 contracts the previous week. The value of the contracts is not disclosed.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/02/busin ... index.html

[kennynah]

Who has not heard that Europe is in trouble ? Time to kill all the shorts ...

i'm not too sure about this above outlook...

eur/usd just hit a brick wall at 1.3050...i wont be surprised in the next few sessions, it goes back down to below 1.3 and even below 1.2 some time within 2012

[HengHeng]

Personally i think never hit 1.33 won't go down.

[kennynah]

Personally i think never hit 1.33 won't go down.

noted...

[winston]

CEBR: Eurozone Breakup Will Begin in 2012

At least one country will pull out of the euro area this year as the breakup of the single currency begins, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

“It now looks as though 2012 will be the year when the euro starts to break up,” the London-based CEBR said in a statement today.

“It is not a done deal yet -- we are only forecasting a 60 percent probability -- but our forecast is that by the end of the year at least one country (and probably more) will leave.”

CEBR said the likelihood of a euro breakup in the next decade has increased to 99 percent.

European leaders return to work this week seeking to buy time for the Spanish and Italian governments to wrest control over their debt and rescue the euro from fragmentation in its 10th anniversary year.

Ten years after euro bank notes replaced national currencies on Jan. 1, 2002, the euro has for the first time recorded two consecutive annual losses against the U.S. dollar while plunging to a record low against the yen.

That raises the pressure on leaders as they struggle to hold the monetary union together in the face of credit downgrades, European Union splits and a looming recession that might compound rising debt.

The crisis may force “most of the French and German banking systems” to seek bailouts to compensate for writedowns on their holdings of sovereign debt, CEBR said. “They might even be nationalized as well. Many other European banks will go back into crisis.”

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/eur ... /id/422782