EUR 04 (Nov 10 - Jan 12)

[winston]

EUR @ 1.3523. Am glad that I sold my EUR about 10 days ago

Seriously, why would u want to be in the EUR unless you are :
1. the Japanese government whose alternative is 0% on the JPY or
2. the Chinese who's trying to diversify from their USD forex holdings

And very likely, both countries also have some guarantees, being given behind the scene ..

[winston]

not vested

The euro fell 0.3 percent against the dollar to $1.3495 , well below the ichimoku cloud base -- a technical indicator of support levels -- at $1.3568.

A break and close below $1.3480 will pave the way for a move back to the Oct. 4 trend low at $1.3145, traders said.

Source: Reuters

[winston]

IT'S A BEAR MARKET IN THE EURO

"Lower highs and lower lows"… that's the new theme for the pan-European currency, the euro. It's also the definition of a bear market.

Some readers wonder why we cover the price action of the euro in our notes.

They don't realize Europe is the world's largest economic bloc… even bigger than the United States.

What happens with its currency, and its big debt crisis, is just as important as what happens in America.

Back in late August, we highlighted the euro's "compressed" state. This is a situation where an asset's day-to-day volatility gradually dries up and the highs and lows move closer together.

These low-volatility periods are often the calm before a storm. We expected to watch the euro's compression resolve itself to the downside.

That downside move came. The euro plummeted from 1.45 to 1.32 (a giant move for a major currency). It then staged a relief rally, which we identified as a good place to short.

As you can see, we were right again. The euro's rally took it to a lower high and then broke lower. It is now locked in a series of "lower highs and lower lows…" which is bad news for this important paper currency… and good news for gold owners.

www.dailywealth.com

[kennynah]

if i told you that euro will go below 1.3...i guess, not many will agree with me

[kennynah]

euro opened pretty strong with a decent gap up of about 100pips

[winston]

Euro Rally After Trend Reversal Could Have Legs by JC Paretson

MacNeil Curry, one of my favorite technicians, likes the Euro at these levels.

One of the best in the business, Curry is head of foreign-exchange and interest-rates technical strategy at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.

We’ve discussed that the Euro vs the US Dollar ($EURUSD) has been positively correlated with Equities, so if MacNeil Curry is right, then the Santa Clause rally in stocks is to be expected.

http://allstarcharts.com/euro-rally-aft ... have-legs/

[kennynah]

i am glad to see that his target prices reaffirm mine...

sunday night will be interesting for my eur position... depending on how it opens, we should be able to gauge the next 30 days' price targets....

[kennynah]

do not rule out the possibility of an unexpected ECB rate cut ...

[kennynah]

2 very key numbers

whichever one gives way, the new direction will follow for weeks to come

1.3450 for the upside
1.3360 for the downside

do you have different numbers?

[iam802]

Gut feel. Euro to fall below 1.34 by jan