Not good with TA so i cant discuss it with you.
My two cents, is that the AUD is now part of the big "Risk-ON" trade, where AUD, EUR, Equities, Commodities would all go up and down together...
Longer term, AUD is needed because everyone is avoiding the EUR. And if demand for Commodities can continue on it's current trajectory, it should be good for the AUD.
But there are so many brilliant minds looking at this type of trade so I dont think I will have much of an edge trading against them

It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"