Investment Strategies 01 (Nov 08 - May 10)

[winston]

Hmm... it will be a trendless market for a few years until mini-skirts and bright colors returns ....


Longer hemlines make comeback at NY Fashion Week

It's the economy, fashionistas: Longer hemlines kick miniskirts to the curb at NY Fashion Week

SAMANTHA CRITCHELL
AP News

Feb 17, 2010 23:09 EST

So long, miniskirts. The up-to-there trend gave way to longer hemlines at New York Fashion Week.

There were more pants, too, than in recent seasons when the dress ruled the runways. Even designers who showed shorter dresses paired them with leg-warmers for a less leggy look.

[helios]

O ... Kenny will be scalping ...

[winston]

Must be flexible to do a, b, c and d depending on situation

[lithium]

I'm trying hard to do b) and c)

I really have no idea how to do a) and d) yet.

[kennynah]

O ... Kenny will be scalping ...

i try to engage in all facets of trading/investing throughout my trading journey... for most parts of last 2 years, i have been focusing on c) position trading... although, it was peppered with a) through d)... with a new year, comes new work objectives... they will change along the way....

[BlackCat]

That was a very informative post, really clarifies what it means when we say we a 'bearish' or 'bullish'...

I'm trying to do c). Unsure of mkt direction for the past 2 weeks, still on the sidelines.

[winston]

Hmmm.... wonder how many of my scalping has ended up as a swing trade and then a position trade and next thing you know, 10 years have gone by ?

Or an investment that's supposed to be for the long term end up being sold as a swing trade ?

[winston]

Market Direction?
26Feb2010 330pm (+8GMT)
by kennynah


not sure which direction it is heading? then better stand aside and watch the movie unfold...

but i think this cycle correction that started in mid jan, ended on 5th Feb... the bias has been for the upside since.... remember, no rally goes unchecked as it moves higher...

but what constitutes higher or lower...it is relative... for example, the current SPX of ~1103 is high, when you compare it with 2008 levels.. but it is factually wrong to say it is higher when compared to pre-crisis days before 2008... therefore, whether you say an index is higher or lower, should be in context with a reference in time.... time frame becomes key in determining your future market outlook...

so, it all depends on what your trading/investing timeframe is...eg,

a) if you scalp...the emphasis is on series of intraday highs and lows
b) if you swing trade...the emphasis is on what will happen next day and the day after
c) if you position trade... the emphasis is on what will happen in 30 - 90 day' time
d) if you invest ... the emphasis will be more fundamental in nature; when will FED raise rates, how will earnings be 1 year later, will trade deficit get narrower, will employment pickup successfully, will RMB strengthen, will EU collapse, etc...

so, when we try to decode the future price possibilities, we must always do so with a time period in mind...

right now, my concern is a) and b)... i let c) and d) worry for themselves... when they happen, they happen...

Yours truly,
Juicy Annie Kwan

[winston]

TOL:-

1) It's very hard to scalp. It means buying very high and trying to sell higher before the reversal.

I tried to do that last week. There was a positive announcement during lunch on Comba. After lunch, it gapped up 5%. I hesitated. Then it was a one way street. In two days it went 0.70 from the price that I hesitated at.

2) It's easier to Swing Trade and Position Trade. You can take your time to get in at a good time and price and hopefully, exit at a good price and time as well.

[lithium]

Dear all, this was shared at another forum. I think it's very interesting, so I post it here as well. Sometimes I share some nice topics from this forum to the other as well. Hope you all don't mind.


Lithium,
a full position means that I am fully load of a stock.

Normally, I will acquire $500,000 to $1,000,000 value for a small cap as a full position. For example, the AMVIG (2300) stock I have is 220,000 shares or about $770,000 which is about 3.37% of my total portfolio.

Sometimes, I buy about half position for a small cap. For example, I bought 30,000 shares of stock 773. It is a half load or a little bit below half position because there is some "problem" of the company. But I don't want to miss the chance to make money. The problem of 773 is that there is a conflict between the ex financial officer and the founder but I don't know who is correct. Therefore, I take half load.

A few small caps in my portfolio are in high loading. For example, I have 381,000 shares of stock 100 and the dollar amount is about $1.65 million or about 7.26% of the portfolio. I got the share at $1.62. Most of the money amount comes from the price rising of the stock 100.

Basically, the determination of the stock weighting in my portfolio is calculated basing on :
a. the earning(profit) potential of the company in the coming five years.
I always give up the short term growth companies. That means I don't buy short term growth companies.

b. The consistence of the past earning of the company.

c. The size of the company.

d. the market view of the company.

e. the market momentum.

f. my emotion at that moment.

It looks very complicated. In fact, during I read the annual report of the company, I already know how many shares and how much amount of money should I allocate to the stock. I weight the risk first and see how much I will lose in the stock. Most often, I don't calculate how much money I will make from the stock.

Stock weighting is very important in my trading. I don't want to see a stock rise 300% in 7 years but I own 10,000 shares of the stock.

Hope this can help.

marcuse