Risks Out There 06 (May 20 - Apr 23)

[behappyalways]

21.11.09【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.2 彭博：2022，經濟、貨幣都有風險！你該怎麼辦？
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TqT86KqR2qo

[winston]

Central bankers blowing up macro hedge funds

By MARK GILBERT

Benchmark government debt yields surged in recent weeks, only to abate either back to where they were at the start of last month or even lower in the case of the United Kingdom and Germany.

That wild ride has caught out some of the biggest hedge funds. Element Capital, which oversees about US$15bil (RM62.47bil), was down 6.7% in October, extending this year’s loss to 9.9%.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... edge-funds

[winston]

Morgan Stanley Says Steer Clear of U.S. Stocks and Bonds in 2022

by Eric Lam

Stay away from U.S. stocks and bonds next year, and seek out better returns in Europe and Japan.

Sees fading monetary support and high valuations holding back American assets in 2022, even as growth improves and inflation moderates.

Last week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it expected less impressive returns for risk assets as the economic cycle matures.

On the commodity front, the bank prefers oil to gold and suggested metal prices face a challenging outlook.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-s ... 07580.html

[behappyalways]

Might have contagion effects ...

Turkey On Verge Of Currency Collapse As Lira Implodes, Crashes 4% In Minutes
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/turke ... -4-minutes

[behappyalways]

"Something Will Rebalance": Goldman Boss Solomon Warns That Market Greed Is Outpacing Fear
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/somet ... acing-fear

[behappyalways]

If his country burns, he will flood Europe with refugees


Turkish lira plummets to ‘insane’ historic low after President Erdogan sparks sell-off
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/23/turkish ... loff-.html

Might have contagion effects ...

Turkey On Verge Of Currency Collapse As Lira Implodes, Crashes 4% In Minutes
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/turke ... -4-minutes

[behappyalways]

Hyperinflation In Turkey: Wine Prices Up 15% In One Day, Chicken And Cheese Up 10%
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hyper ... -cheese-10

[behappyalways]

But concerns are once again on the rise about European banks’ exposure to Turkey. On Friday, as those concerns commingled with fears about the potential threat posed by the new omicron variant of Covid-19, Europe’s worst-affected stocks included the four banks most exposed to Turkey: Spain’s BBVA, whose shares fell 7.3% on the day, Italy’s Unicredit (-6.9%), France’s BNP Paribas (-5.9%) and the Dutch ING (-7.3%).


Is It Time For Eurozone Banks To Start Worrying About Turkey Again?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/it-ti ... rkey-again

[winston]

5 surprises to watch for in 2022

by Rick Newman

1. Shortages become surpluses
2. Abortion explodes
3. A real bear market finally arrives
4. China overreaches
5. Trump folds

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-surpri ... 48324.html

[winston]

The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst

BY MURRAY SABRIN

One of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%).

The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.

Without price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023.

Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.

Source: Fortune

https://fortune.com/2021/12/09/next-rec ... lbullsheet