EUR 04 (Nov 10 - Jan 12)

[winston]

EUR now at 1.4035. That was a very fast drop of 0.02 from 1.42

[winston]

Now at 1.3959. The drop is very steep indeed. About 3 cents just like that from last week ..

[kennynah]

about 140 pips drop from session opening this morning

[winston]

Drip Drip downwards...

EUR at 1.377 now. Wasn't it around 1.42 just last week ? PIGS frightening people again ?

[iam802]

I recall that it has been highlighted Oct-Nov is the time some Euro banks are due to meet certain obligations.

Since, they won't allow PIIGS to fail, in another week's time, they will announce that the bank's capitalization exercise is a HUGE SUCCESS and meets the required standard.

Off we go for another short sprint upwards.

[winston]

EUR at 1.3693 now. Is this strong enough to bring the EUR down ?

Irish debt fears keep markets on edge as G-20 meet

The euro slid again Thursday amid fears that Ireland will have to get a financial bailout to stave off bankruptcy, while stocks traded mostly lower as the leaders of the Group of 20 industrial and developing countries sat down to discuss how to shore up the global economic recovery.

For the second day running, worries that Europe's debt crisis was getting out of hand kept investors on edge, particularly in the bond markets.

Ireland is at the epicenter of concerns at the moment amid mounting fears that the government will not be able to get a handle on its massive debts and will instead have to get a Greek-style financial bailout from its partners in the eurozone and possibly the International Monetary Fund.

That view is increasingly evident in the bond markets, where interest rates on Irish government bonds have been rising on an almost daily basis to their highest levels since the euro was introduced in 1999. On Thursday, the yield on ten-year bonds approached 9 percent for the first time and the spread between the benchmark German rate spiked towards 7 percent.

Tensions are also on the up in Portugal after the government had to pay a higher interest rate to get investors to buy into an auction Wednesday. Spanish bonds are also under pressure.


Source: AP News

[profittaker]

I thought Irish don't need bailout until mid-2011?

Ireland's announcement last week that it would have to cut another €6 billion next year to meet budget targets underscored its desperate position.

"It seems increasingly likely that Ireland will eventually turn to the EFSF for funding and that it may ultimately have little choice but to restructure its debts," said Ben May, analyst at Capital Economics, referring to the European rescue fund.

Ireland technically has enough cash to last through mid-2011, but the worry is that it will be frozen out of capital markets because of prohibitively high rates when it eventually has to borrow.

Not only are traders worried that Ireland would have to resort to the European bailout fund, but efforts by countries like Germany - effectively the eurozone's paymaster, as its biggest country - to make investors take on a bigger share of the cost of a bailout have further unnerved markets.

As a result, the sell-off in both government debt and stock markets accelerated, threatening to create a downward spiral in which worse market conditions and expectations of a bailout reinforce each other..

Source: http://www.wdam.com/Global/story.asp?S=13484317

[winston]

1) One thing for sure, the EURO rapid rise has since formed a huge kumo support base at around 1.395 on the Ichimoku’s Daily Chart.
2) Secondary support is around 1.34 at the base of the kumo. This coincides with the kumo support on the Weekly Chart.

EUR at 1.3642. Getting closer to that 1.34 secondary support day by day.

My guess is that when it touches 1.34, the fear would be so great that it would cut through that support easily.

Ha Ha ... what do I know ? I nearly got scared out of my EUR Fixed Deposits when it was touching 1.20. That's the consequences of listening to those parrots talking about parity.

[profittaker]

Report: Discussions underway to assess readiness to activate EFSF for Ireland
Please don't miss my earlier post: Labor Force Participation Rate: What will happen?

From the Irish Times: Merkel refuses to back down over debt burden

The Irish Times has established ... that informal contacts are under way between Brussels, Berlin and other capitals to assess their readiness to activate the €750 billion rescue fund in the event of an application from Dublin.
Note: The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is complicated and currently unfunded.

Also from the Irish Times (I noted the bank funding issue this morning based on information from a contact in Europe): Investor concern hits Irish banks as funding costs soar

INVESTOR CONCERN switched to the Irish banks yesterday as the cost of funding for AIB and Bank of Ireland rose to record levels and the credit-default swaps on Irish banks soared.

And from the Irish Times: G20 concern over Irish debt as bond yields pass 9%

Last night the rating agency Moody’s said it was awaiting the release of Ireland’s four-year fiscal plan later this month to decide whether to downgrade the country’s credit rating.

Source: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/ ... ssess.html

[kennynah]

so...sell euro is it?