US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - May 19)

[winston]

CHARTS

A deeper test by the large cap indices broke the 50 day MA.

SP500: After rebound highs were hit Wednesday, SP500 faded into Friday, ending at the 20 day EMA on the close. Volume rose above average, but with expiration that must be discounted. SP500 is in a 2-day pullback to the 20 day MA and the early April recovery high and the late February low. Good place to hold and indeed this is where SP500 needs to continue the rebound.

DJ30: Very similar to SP500, fading to the 20 day EMA and the late February low on the Friday close as volume moved above average. Still very well positioned to continue higher.

NASDAQ: Same story, recovery high and doji Wednesday followed by the Thursday/Friday fade. Closed at the 20 day EMA just below the 50 day EMA. Volume was lower and still below average on expiration; wow, no dumping for sure. Not bad action considering the semiconductors had such a lousy end of the week.

Source: Investment House

[winston]

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

CSX (CSX)... railroads
Hess (HES)... oil and gas
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)... oil and gas
ConocoPhillips (COP)... oil and gas
Valero Energy (VLO)... oil and gas
Arch Coal (ARCH)... coal
Rayonier (RYN)... timberland
Southern Copper (SCCO)... copper
American Express (AXP)... financial powerhouse
E-Trade Financial (ETFC)... online brokerage
Interactive Brokers (IBKR)... online brokerage
GoDaddy (GDDY)... world's largest domain-name provider
NetApp (NTAP)... "cloud" storage
Match (MTCH)... undisputed leader in online dating
Netflix (NFLX)... "game changer" in technology
Intel (INTC)... chipmaker
Denny's (DENN)... a dining chain goes digital
Wendy's (WEN)... fast food
Domino's Pizza (DPZ)... pizza
Boston Beer (SAM)... beer
Callaway Golf (ELY)... No. 1 golf-club maker
Planet Fitness (PLNT)... low-cost gyms
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)... "yoga inspired" apparel
Burlington Stores (BURL)... discount "one-stop shop"
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)... discount retailer
Five Below (FIVE)... discount retailer
AMN Healthcare Services (AMN)... health care staffing
Humana (HUM)... health insurance


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

PepsiCo (PEP)... soda
Procter & Gamble (PG)... household goods
Kimberly-Clark (KMB)... household goods
General Mills (GIS)... Cheerios, Betty Crocker, Pillsbury
Altria (MO)... cigarettes
Philip Morris (PM)... cigarettes
Harley-Davidson (HOG)... motorcycles


Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

CHARTS

The Thursday bounce move tried to add to the bounce Friday, but a strong NASDAQ move failed to ignite buying elsewhere, and in the end the indices faded.

Still not bad overall patterns for the large cap indices as they narrow their ranges, but they are still not yet reacting well to what appears to be good news.

The small and midcap indices are in patterns that look bullish enough, and they are showing good action in their stocks, they just have to make good on the patterns. That has been the problem for this market: making good on the patterns.


NASDAQ: Gapped upside to the 50 day SMA then closed basically flat. Thursday NASDAQ gapped up off a doji at its trendline from early 2016 and looked to extend that Friday, but the move was sold. Still banging around in the lower half of its channel so has room to move, but even with some good large cap NASDAQ earnings the past two weeks it is still hard-pressed to put together a sustained break higher.

Two weeks upside from early April was sold off aggressively into last Tuesday. It did not break down, but even with some very good NASDAQ large cap earnings it has failed to climb back up in its channel. It is acting heavy, but there are many large cap NASDAQ stocks that have not broken down and many smaller NASDAQ stocks working quite well. Thus, the index for now continues the 2016 trend but is struggling.


SP500: The SP500 high to low move Friday was not nearly as epic as NASDAQ. SP500 was down pre-market for quite some time before flipping positive. Small move, low volume, no big deal. It continues narrowing its pattern the past month, trying to set up a triangle over the 200 day SMA to deliver some upside. It certainly can do that, but it has also experienced the same failure to hold moves as NASDAQ, though perhaps on a less grand scale.


DJ30: See SP500. Basically a bullish pattern though intraday of late unable to hold gains. Using the 200 day SMA as support, DJ30 is trying for a higher low and a anew break higher.


Source: Investment House

[winston]

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Visa (V)... credit cards
Macy's (M)... "bad to less bad" in retail
Tailored Brands (TLRD)... "bad to less bad" in retail
Tapestry (TPR)... luxury purses
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)... " yoga inspired " apparel
Planet Fitness (PLNT)... America's fitness boom
AMN Healthcare Services (AMN)... health care staffing
SodaStream (SODA)... sparkling water
Boston Beer (SAM)... beer
Denny's (DENN)... dining chain goes digital
Domino's Pizza (DPZ)... dining chain goes digital
Microsoft (MSFT)... "digital utility"
BP (BP)... oil and gas
Total (TOT)... oil and gas
Hess (HES)... oil and gas
Noble Energy (NBL)... oil and gas
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)... oil and gas
Phillips 66 (PSX)... oil and gas
Rayonier (RYN)... timberland
Raytheon (RTN)... "offense" contractor
World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)... pro wrestling
Callaway Golf (ELY)... golf equipment


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

AT&T (T)... telecom
Dish Network (DISH)... "cord cutting" victim
Altria (MO)... cigarettes
Philip Morris (PM)... cigarettes
Kellogg (K)... packaged goods
Kimberly-Clark (KMB)... household goods
Procter & Gamble (PG)... household goods
Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT)... tires


Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

CHARTS

NASDAQ: Bouncing off the trendline from early 2016 after the Thursday doji at the level on good volume. Made it to the 50 day SMA, closing just over that level. Volume backed off to below average. Perhaps the reversal was enough. In any event, held the trendline as it did two weeks back, bouncing again. This time NASDAQ needs to put some distance on the trendline, unlike
the last attempt in the first two weeks of April.

SP500: Triangle was getting to the point so to speak, where it would show its break higher or break lower. Nice doji reversal Thursday, nice solid upside break and rally Friday to the 50 day EMA. That puts it about halfway to the upper trendline in the 3+ month triangle. Volume needs to come in because on both Thursday and Friday it was nowhere as the move started. On the breakout at 2700ish (closed at 2663) that is when it really needs to show the volume.

DJ30: Same action as SP500, i.e. doji Thursday at the 200 day SMA followed by a break higher Friday. DJ30 is still below the 50 day MA's at 24,500 and the upper trendline in its triangle at 24,450. No volume here either, but again, on the breakout that is where you want to see it.


Source: Investment House

[winston]

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Visa (V)... credit cards
E-Trade Financial (ETFC)... online brokerage
Etsy (ETSY)... online marketplace
Shutterfly (SFLY)... digital photos and prints
Citrix Systems (CTXS)... cloud computing
Box (BOX)... cloud storage
Ferrari (RACE)... fast cars
World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)... pro wrestling
DSW (DSW)... shoes
BP (BP)... oil and gas
Valero Energy (VLO)... oil and gas
HollyFrontier (HFC)... oil and gas
Phillips 66 (PSX)... oil and gas
Cameco (CCJ)... uranium
Rayonier (RYN)... timberland


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Kellogg (K)... Fruit Loops, Pop-Tarts, Eggo
Kraft Heinz (KHC)... Oscar Mayer, Jell-O, Velveeta
General Mills (GIS)... Cheerios, Betty Crocker, Pillsbury
Procter & Gamble (PG)... Crest, Pampers, Tide
PepsiCo (PEP)... soda
CBS (CBS)... media
Comcast (CMCSA)... "cord cutting" victim
Dish Network (DISH)... "cord cutting" victim
AT&T (T)... telecom

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

MONDAY

The stock indices made good on the reversals off support, moving through near resistance last week with RUTX indeed already bumping at the prior all-time highs. The pause Friday was logical as previously noted, and a couple of days rest would work to rejuvenate the move and help it continue.

There was some better volume and some better breadth while leadership is relatively solid. Thus we anticipate more upside and look to pick up more solid plays as they present themselves.

As is usually the case with good moves, you cannot enter all the positions you wanted. They either creep higher on low trade or they gap and rally away from you. Or they don't move at all. The cool thing about continuing moves is you get a second chance at those when they test the initial break.

Thus, after a bit more rest to start the week, when stocks resume the move we want to let the current positions ride and then when new stocks break higher, as long as the internals remain improved, pick up new positions.

Source: Investment House

[winston]

CHARTS

SP500: Broke over the April high as well as the upper trendline to the triangle on the week, pausing for a rest Friday. Good initial move off the 200 day SMA and the bottom of the triangle, breaking through the upper trendline. Now a pause after 6 days off the support and that should set SP500 for a renewed move higher.

NASDAQ: A strong move on the week as well, coming off the lower trendline from 2016, clearing the mid-April high. Actually showed above average volume on the Wednesday break past the April peak. Friday was a day off on lower trade. As with the other indices, a test for a couple more days puts in a 1-2-3 test and it is ready for a new upside leg in this move.

DJ30: Broke through the 50 day MA's and the upper trendline to the downward wedge Wednesday, and continued upside through Friday. Volume was no great shakes, but DJ30 moved through the mid-April peak, taking out the next important resistance. Not a hugely powerful move, but breaking some resistance, following the other indices.

Source: Investment House

[winston]

MARKET SUMMARY

Rally takes a pause Friday after a solid week showing decent internals, good enough leadership.

Stock indices clear initial resistance, set for a short test.

Earnings remain good enough but not exploding stocks higher.

Source: Investment House

[winston]

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Apple (AAPL)... consumer electronics
Microsoft (MSFT)... "digital utility"
Electronic Arts (EA)... video games
Nvidia (NVDA)... technology "picks and shovels"
Cisco (CSCO)... Internet "plumbing"
Citrix Systems (CTXS)... cloud computing
Adobe Systems (ADBE)... software
Salesforce.com (CRM)... software for businesses
Etsy (ETSY)... online marketplace
Shutterfly (SFLY)... digital photos and prints
E-Trade Financial (ETFC)... online brokerage
Interactive Brokers (IBKR)... online brokerage
Charles Schwab (SCHW)... financial services
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Visa (V)... credit cards
Automatic Data Processing (ADP)... human resources
Ferrari (RACE)... "status symbol"
Planet Fitness (PLNT)... America's fitness boom
Extra Space Storage (EXR)... America's self-storage boom
World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)... "cord cutting" winner
Sysco (SYY)... food products
Cintas (CTAS)... uniforms and supplies
BP (BP)... oil and gas
ConocoPhillips (COP)... oil and gas
Hess (HES)... oil and gas
Noble Energy (NBL)... oil and gas
Transocean (RIG)... "bad to less bad" rally in offshore oil
CSX (CSX)... railroads


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Comcast (CMCSA)... "cord cutting" victim
Dish Network (DISH)... "cord cutting" victim
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD)... bee
Papa John's (PZZA)... pizza
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)... home good
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)... drugstore
Prestige Brands (PBH)... health
GNC (GNC)... vitamins


Source: Daily Wealth