US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - May 19)

Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:51 am

CHARTS

DJ30: Not the powerful move as on Thursday when WMT BA and company blasted it higher, but DJ30 did continue a solid move off the 50 day MA test that saw a hammer doji Wednesday that bounced it higher. DJ30 is back near the top of the channel formed off the March and April lows that acted as the bottom of the current 8 month base. Working higher, looking better than
most.

SP500: Similar to the Dow, moving up near the top of its uptrend channel that has built the right side of its 8 month base. The late week gains have SP500 filling the downside gap from a week back. Okay, rebounded from the island reversal, at the late July high, at the all-time high (more or less). Critical time once again here at the prior high.

NASDAQ: Trying to get off the 50 day MA, less than impressive in the attempts. The major volume on the week was in the Wednesday selling to the 50 day MA. Low trade on the rather weak bounce attempt. Still trending higher, but not a lot of life as upside volume wanes along with MACD.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:15 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Amazon (AMZN)... Internet "game changer"
Apple (AAPL)... consumer-electronics giant
Square (SQ)... "cashless" society
Cardtronics (CATM)... ATMs
AMC Entertainment (AMC)... movie theaters
Target (TGT)... blue-chip retailer
Dollar General (DG)... discount stores
Burlington Stores (BURL)... discount stores
DSW (DSW)... shoes
Sysco (SYY)... food products
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)... burritos and tacos
McCormick (MKC)... Old Bay, French's, Frank's RedHot
Hormel Foods (HRL)... Spam, Skippy, Jennie-O
Waste Management (WM)... trash and recycling
Exelon (EXC)... utilities
CenturyLink (CTL)... telecom
Ingersoll Rand (IR)... industrial equipment
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)... auto parts
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)... auto parts
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)... "offense" contractor
UnitedHealth (UNH)... health insurance
Aetna (AET)... health insurance
Eli Lilly (LLY)... prescription drugs
Merck (MRK)... prescription drugs
Medtronic (MDT)... insulin pumps and pacemakers


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Barrick Gold (ABX)... precious metals
Goldcorp (GG)... precious metals
Banco Santander (SAN)... Spanish bank
HSBC (HSBC)... British bank
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS)... Scottish bank
General Electric (GE)... debt-ridden industrial giant
JC Penney (JCP)... retail "old guard"

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:31 pm

Bully for shares

America’s stockmarket passes a milestone

Record or not, America’s bull market keeps going


ON AUGUST 22nd America’s bull market in equities turned 3,453 days old. Since hitting a low of 666 in March 2009, the S&P 500 index has increased more than fourfold, driven by strong corporate profits, low inflation, stable economic growth and a boatload of central-bank stimulus.

Despite five corrections of at least 10%, the index has never entered bear territory, defined as a drop of at least 20%. Most commentators are declaring this to be the longest bull market in history.

Whether it is a record-breaker is disputed. Some contend that because a fall of 19.9% in 1990 did not quite reach the technical threshold, the bull market that ended in 2000 actually lasted a whopping 4,494 days and is the true champion. Others note a drop of 19%-plus in 2011 (and declines of 20%-plus in other share-price indices).

Whatever its precise status, the bull market is curiously unloved by investors. Ken Fisher, a fund manager, has called it the “most joyless” in history. In the boom of 1990-2000 the S&P 500 rose by 417%, or by 19% per year. In the current run the index has clocked up a gain of 323%, or 16.5% per year.

What this market lacks in vim, however, it has made up for in steadiness. In 2017 the VIX index, a measure of market volatility, recorded more days below ten than in the previous 26 years combined.

Some believe that shares are overvalued. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio is 25, and on a cyclically adjusted basis is higher still. On past form, average returns turn negative once the ratio tops 20, according to State Street Global Advisors, a money manager.

Yet the warning bells about which investors fret most, such as widening credit spreads and bubbly asset prices, are not sounding loudly enough to suggest that the next bear market is imminent. Analysts at Goldman Sachs put the probability of a bubble in American shares at less than one in five. This bull may yet have room to run.

Source: The Economist
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:34 am

MONDAY

Consumer Confidence, second GDP read, Personal income and spending, Chicago PMI are up for next week. The Fed is also getting chatty though there is not much that will change here given Powell's Jackson Hole commentary.

Classic Fed miscalculation. Economic data has softened on the leading edge the past 3 weeks with regional PMI's missing, housing looking quite weak, Durables Orders dropping to 11 month lows (though business investment rose a nice 1.4%) -- perhaps just a soft patch, but the Fed is acting rather fatalistic in its need to hike rates.

It said it would give deference to the yield curve, but bonds are rallying as the Fed hikes and stock indices hit record highs. The Fed is making its same old mistakes: it sees an overall still strong economy, stocks still strong, and it ignores the yield curve.

When it cannot ignore the curve any longer, it starts making up reasons the yield curve doesn't mean anything this time. When more reasons bonds are 'wrong' are heard from the Fed, you know the Fed is going to overshoot. Okay, that is poor wording. We know the Fed ALWAYS overshoots; it is more a question of the timing.

With the stock indices hitting new highs, worrying about the Fed seems rather absurd. Near term it is. Nonetheless, you keep an eye on bonds as stocks rally, and as bonds and stocks rally you watch how the stronger stocks act.

Reversals from highs, breakdowns, etc. are indications. The market may still be attempting a top, new highs be damned. Don't assume the new highs are locked in. The action of SP400 and RUTX is encouraging as they hit highs, tested, and then put in additional gains. NASDAQ is still
problematic, however, and there is no guarantee it holds its new high.

As noted earlier, given the recovery by some big names and the new highs in SP500 and NASDAQ, the play is still mostly upside. The rotation stocks rallied, put in modest tests last week, and look ready to move again. If chips and techs want to play along the market has plenty of ammunition.

We are still looking at more AAPL and a GOOG position and will see what other NASDAQ and tech stocks want to come along to the upside. Of course the more industrial plays still have good looks and we will be ready to play those as they break back upside off their tests.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:47 am

CHARTS

NASDAQ: Just over a week from the 50 day MA test, NASDAQ finally popped a new high again after that late July high and its half-session half life. Perhaps this fate will be better. Hey, NASDAQ held the 50 day EMA for the third time and this time, unlike early August, punched out a new high.

SP500: A new high Tuesday intraday could not hold. A test of the 10 day EMA into Thursday, then Friday a gap and rally to that high. Bravo. Volume -- weak. Can malign it all you want, but it is a new high after a quick intraday 50 day MA test 8 sessions back. Now it shows if it can hold.

DJ30: Higher high on Tuesday, clearing the late February peak, then faded, testing the 10 day EMA Thursday. Friday a nice break higher though still below the Tuesday close. Held the break over the prior highs and now it can work on the January all-time high. Still plenty of room to work to that point, and that is good as it does not have to make a break through any other resistance.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:37 am

MONDAY

More trade issues as the US and Canada resume on Wednesday. China will surely have some more commentary about Trump given it has no favorable facts to support its trade positions. Larry Kudlow said Friday that China had no interest in talking; thus the personal attack campaign is at least explained.

As for the market, stocks and the indices rallied to higher highs then faded Thursday and Friday. The trends are still in place, buyers came in to push stocks to higher highs, then they returned after a test to push them higher. A good test in progress, a bit more would not be bad.

Trade remains an issue if just for short periods. NASDAQ is near the upper trendline and that may stall some of the moves from big names such as AAPL, AMZN. If so, however, a test then sets those stocks for some new entries as well.

Yes, keep in mind the bulls indicator, that it is September, and the Fed is on a hiking mission, but at this juncture you look at the action of solid patterns and take the cues from there.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:59 am

CHARTS

NASDAQ: Just over two weeks upside off the 50 day MA with a series of new highs from the prior Friday to the intraday high Thursday. Friday NASDAQ was still up thanks to AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and company. Slowing the move higher as it does its imitation of a pause after a solid surge higher starting with the Monday gap higher. Near the upper channel line (8180,closed at 8110) and that appears to be exerting some influence, slowing the move and starting something of a consolidation.

RUTX: One of the best performers Friday, not slowing but accelerating to a new high after a sluggish Tuesday to Thursday. Always love to see the small caps as upside trendsetters.

SP400 and SP500 are very similar, breaking to new highs on the week then testing back Thursday and Friday. Holding the breakouts, nice modest tests to near the 10 day EMA, setting up the next move higher.

DJ30: Similar to SP500 though DJ30 has not hit a new high on the move though it is hitting higher rally highs. Still remains just over 100 points off the January all-time high.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:26 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Apple (AAPL)... iPhones
Microsoft (MSFT)... software
Adobe Systems (ADBE)... software
Amazon (AMZN)... Internet retailer
Verisign (VRSN)... domain names
GoDaddy (GDDY)... domain names
Cisco (CSCO)... tech hardware
Nvidia (NVDA)... tech hardware
Sony (SNE)... electronics
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO)... video games
3D Systems (DDD)... 3D printers
Match (MTCH)... online dating
Domino's Pizza (DPZ)... pizza delivery
Grubhub (GRUB)... "smart" food delivery
PayPal (PYPL)... online money transfer
American Express (AXP)... credit cards
Visa (V)... credit cards
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only stores
Five Below (FIVE)... discount stores
UnitedHealth (UNH)... health insurance
Eli Lilly (LLY)... prescription drugs
Becton Dickinson (BDX)... needles and syringes
Medtronic (MDT)... insulin pumps and pacemakers
Align Technology (ALGN)... "invisible" orthodontics
CSX (CSX)... railroads
Union Pacific (UNP)... railroads
United Continental (UAL)... airline

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Not many... It's a bull market, you know!

Source: Daily Wealth
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:26 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Apple (AAPL)... iPhones
Microsoft (MSFT)... software
Adobe Systems (ADBE)... software
Amazon (AMZN)... Internet retailer
Verisign (VRSN)... domain names
GoDaddy (GDDY)... domain names
Cisco (CSCO)... tech hardware
Nvidia (NVDA)... tech hardware
Sony (SNE)... electronics
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO)... video games
3D Systems (DDD)... 3D printers
Match (MTCH)... online dating
Domino's Pizza (DPZ)... pizza delivery
Grubhub (GRUB)... "smart" food delivery
PayPal (PYPL)... online money transfer
American Express (AXP)... credit cards
Visa (V)... credit cards
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only stores
Five Below (FIVE)... discount stores
UnitedHealth (UNH)... health insurance
Eli Lilly (LLY)... prescription drugs
Becton Dickinson (BDX)... needles and syringes
Medtronic (MDT)... insulin pumps and pacemakers
Align Technology (ALGN)... "invisible" orthodontics
CSX (CSX)... railroads
Union Pacific (UNP)... railroads
United Continental (UAL)... airline

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Not many... It's a bull market, you know!

Source: Daily Wealth
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:49 am

MONDAY

Lots of talk about market tops and perhaps this is the market topping. That is a process as discussed before, with rallies, declines, rallies, declines.

Right now, however, the indices are trending higher, rotation continues as one area rallies, another tests, and then they reverse more or less, changing positions.

Thus, we are going to continue looking upside at those stocks holding trends or in good patterns that are ready to move.

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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