US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Feb 18)

Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:47 pm

Biggest Stock Sell Signal Since 2013 Sparked by Record Inflows

By Cormac Mullen

Tech, emerging market, TIPS funds all see strong demand
Tactical pullback in S&P 500 likely in first quarter: BofAML

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... gn=markets
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:48 pm

U.S. Stock Rally Sparks Longest ‘Overbought’ Streak in 21 Years

By Luke Kawa and Lu Wang

S&P 500’s relative strength reading tops 70 for 16th day
Market hasn’t stayed above threshold this long since 1996
The S&P 500 Index’s superlative start to 2018 is making a contrarian technical indicator look silly.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... gn=markets
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:07 am

Bank of America warns a market pullback in Q1 is now 'very likely'

by Dion Rabouin

BAML analysts say their selloff indicator shows stocks are very likely in for a fall in February or March.

They noted that the historical average peak-to-trough drop in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was 12%.

BAML observed an all-time high $33.2 billion inflow to equity funds this week; a record $12.2 billion inflow to active funds; $1.5 billion into gold, a 50-week high; and record inflows to tech and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.

It's measure of “private client equity exposure rising at fastest pace in 10 years … cash allocation at record low (10%); 98% of global equity markets trading above 50 & 200 day moving averages,”

Jefferies also noted the increasing allocations into riskier assets like emerging markets equities and out of global bonds.

“The $8.0 billion (0.6% of AUM) and $8.2 billion net injections in EM and European equities was a record high in dollar terms.


Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-ame ... 17623.html
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:17 pm

MONDAY

A couple of volatile sessions with higher selling volume is something to note and watch for more
occurrences, but they don't end the rally themselves.

Given the runs, will there be enough good news to push them not just higher for that day, but into new runs?

So, we are concerned about when the top comes, but even so we are looking at upside plays because the leaders are still setting up and rallying.

As long as they set up, rally, and don't reverse those rallies the upside remains in charge and we want to play there.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:29 pm

CHARTS

Some volatility crept into the indices the past 2.5 weeks with a couple of higher volume selling sessions, but thus far that has not stopped the advance.

NASDAQ: Starting with a weekly NASDAQ chart to emphasize the 2016 to present run. 2013/2014 was similar, but this is different. Note the acceleration over the past four weeks as money is forced at high rate into stocks. That kind of move cannot last.

Of course it cannot. It can, however, continue on into the big earnings this coming week or beyond. After a 2-day sidestep, NASDAQ broke higher again Friday. Big names that tested during the week broke higher.


DJ30: New high after new high, climbing up and indeed now off the 10 day EMA. When it gets a bit out over its skis like this, it tends to edge back toward the 10 day to continue the run after a pause. That is if the current trend holds. Extended off the 50 day MA over the past 5 months, and now an impressive 17.9% above the 200 day SMA. That is extreme for any index, particularly the Dow.


SP500: Started strong Monday, flattened out somewhat then surged Friday. It too has quite the upward ramp since the start of 2018 as tons of money has poured in.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:05 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

General Dynamics (GD)... "offense" contractor
Raytheon (RTN)... "offense" contractor
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)... diversified mining
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A)... oil and gas
ExxonMobil (XOM)... oil and gas
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)... auto parts
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU)... cars and trucks
Deere (DE)... lawnmowers and farming equipment
Pool Corp (POOL)... pool supplies
Lowe's (LOW)... one-stop shop for home repairs
3M (MMM)... everyday goods in your house
Dollar General (DG)... everyday goods at lower prices
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only bulk retailer
Best Buy (BBY)... big-screen TVs, laptops, tablets
Activision Blizzard (ATVI)... video games
GoDaddy (GDDY)... Internet domain names
Cisco (CSCO)... "World Dominator" of the Internet
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)... "World Dominator" of health care
Novo Nordisk (NVO)... leading drugmaker to treat diabetes
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)... "one of the world's greatest tailwinds"
Becton Dickinson (BDX)... "one of the world's greatest tailwinds"
Baxter (BAX)... "one of the world's greatest tailwinds"
Anthem (ANTM)... health insurance
Morgan Stanley (MS)... America's "financial backbone"
Bank of America (BAC)... America's "financial backbone"
Citigroup (C)... America's "financial backbone"
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Domino's Pizza (DPZ)... pizza
Dunkin' Brands (DNKN)... coffee and donuts


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Not many... It's a bull market, you know!

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:01 pm

CHARTS

What do you say about these? Breaks of support for certain, and now you start looking at potential bounce points. It is a game of patience on this first selloff to see where it bottoms, being ready at each point with plays to participate in the move.

NASDAQ: Was in a decent test along the 20 day EMA but broke down through the 20 day on the close. Of course volume ballooned to the highest since the December expiration. Logical support at 7100 to 7068, then the December peak at 6995. Bare minimums for the selloff I would think, but for now those are just levels to watch for a hold and bounce.

A rip below the 20 day EMA Friday and want to go ahead and get the trip to the 50 day MA or
December peak out of the way on this move. That will be a good scare-off selloff.


DJ30: Definitive break lower, only the sixth ever 600+ point loss on the Dow. Heading to the 50 day MA (25,000) to the December consolidation at 24,860 as a logical first stopping point.


SP500: Similar to DJ30, SP500 crashed the 20 day EMA in a big way. Higher volume; oh, sellers were in the majority. Surprise. The 50 day MA looks logical at 2725 on the high end, 2685 from the December lateral consolidation.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:50 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Boeing (BA)... "offense" contractor
Raytheon (RTN)... "offense" contractor
Northrop Grumman (NOC)... "offense" contractor
Lockheed Martin (LMT)... "offense" contractor
Roper Technologies (ROP)... diversified engineering
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)... life-sciences giant
Facebook (FB)... "FANG" stock
Amazon (AMZN)... "FANG" stock
Microsoft (MSFT)... "digital utility"
Nvidia (NVDA)... chipmaker
Twitter (TWTR)... "bad to less bad" social media
Match (MTCH)... online dating
eBay (EBAY)... online marketplace
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Choice Hotels (CHH)... hotels
Carnival (CCL)... cruises
Ferrari (RACE)... fast cars
Pool Corp (POOL)... swimming pools
SodaStream (SODA)... do-it-yourself soda
Blue Buffalo Pet Products (BUFF)... pet food
Dollar Tree (DLTR)... discount retailer
Activision Blizzard (ATVI)... video games
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)... video games
Electronic Arts (EA)... video games
New York Times (NYT)... global news coverage
World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)... pro wrestling
Nike (NKE)... "World Dominator" of sports apparel
Skechers (SKX)... shoes and accessories

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Sprint (S)... debt-laden telecom
TiVo (TIVO)... digital-video recording
Barnes & Noble (BKS)... bookstores
Brixmor Property (BRX)... shopping center REIT
Washington Prime (WPG)... shopping center REIT
Nordic American Tankers (NAT)... oil tankers

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:19 am

How Far Can the Stock Market Plunge?

A hard look at the numbers suggests the sell-off shouldn't be a lot worse. That doesn't mean it won't be.

Earnings are now expected to grow 17 percent next year to a collective $156 a share for the S&P 500. That gives the S&P 500 a price-to-earnings ratio of about 16.5.

A reasonable floor for stocks isn't much lower, about 2 percent.


Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... for-stocks
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:49 am

How low will the Dow go? Brace yourself for the worst-case scenario

By Quentin Fottrell

Jim Rogers: In theory, that would be more than the 54% drop in 2007 to 2009.

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “A total decline of 15% wouldn’t be out of the ordinary and would send a very clear buy signal.”

There’s no indication of economic troubles driving volatility, said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer of Exencial Wealth Advisors in Oklahoma City. “Our guess is that it’s not going to reach that 20%. We see a 15% to 18% valuation pullback in a worst-case scenario. It’s a valuation correction.

“The worst-case scenario is that it breaks below the 200-week moving average,” Woodley said. “The last time it broke that was mid-2008,” he said, “but that was a bear market driven by a financial collapse. It stayed there until it broke back in 2010, tested it in 2011 and again in 2016.”

The Dow plummeted 90% in the Great Depression versus that 54% in the Great Recession.


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-d ... yptr=yahoo
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