US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Feb 18)

[winston]

Why You Must Be Ready for the Inevitable Summer Stock Market Dive

by Scott Gamm

He thinks the pullback would be a "measured move lower" rather than a flash crash event

The looming downturn, which Costa doesn't think will be as serious as a traditional 10% correction, could be sparked by fallout from the investigation into Russia's involvement in the 2016 election

Source: The Street

https://www.thestreet.com/story/1417082 ... yptr=yahoo

[winston]

The S&P 500 Keeps Soaring While Other Investments Fade

The S&P 500 hits new highs thanks to economic growth and solid yields

By John Jagerson and Wade Hansen

As long as companies keep buying back their own stock, the U.S. economy continues its slow and steady growth and Treasury yields remain low, the S&P 500 still has plenty of room to move higher — barring any unforeseen geopolitical shocks to the system.

After all, where else are traders going to put their money? The U.S. equity market still offers the best risk-adjusted bang for your buck on the planet.

Source: Sling-Shot Trader

http://investorplace.com/2017/06/sp-500 ... TvrnWh96M8

[winston]

'Horrendous storm' to hit stocks, Wall Street not rational: David Stockman

by Stephanie Landsman

There are just seven weeks until lawmakers go home for the August recess

Stockman contends it's unlikely tax reform and an infrastructure package will become reality in this environment — two business-friendly policies seen as a huge benefit to Wall Street.

In fact, he warns, the country could see a government shutdown in a matter of months.

Source: CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/09/horrendo ... CKW,SRZJ,1

[winston]

MONDAY

Friday was the start of some rotation. Will it be the end of it? With the good patterns in manufacturing, construction, and other 'old economy' stocks and sectors, it would not be surprising at all for those to continue seeing money flow their way and break them higher.

If money is not leaving the market, it will seek other areas, and the likely candidates are those that are under quiet accumulation during the ascent of the FAANG et al. Many of those managers lamenting the surge in the narrow leadership have likely put money into these other areas, hence the accumulation patterns. We anticipate seeing them make breaks higher, and the plays on the report this weekend reflect that.

Not that the recent leaders are out of the upside mix. As noted, many managed to hold onto near support and as has been in the past, could bounce right on up again. The plunge protection team was working hard the last hour Friday and we will see if the managers try buying the big names again. If not, will the PPT move back in?

Source: Investment House

[behappyalways]

Partying Like It's 1999 May Be Near End: Barron's Roundtable
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... roundtable

[winston]

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Alphabet (GOOGL)... high-flying tech stock
Yahoo (YHOO)... Internet pioneer
Amazon (AMZN)... online-retail juggernaut
Alibaba (BABA)... online-retail juggernaut
Ctrip.com (CTRP)... "China's Priceline"
Shopify (SHOP)... e-commerce powerhouse
eBay (EBAY)... online auctions
Netflix (NFLX)... alternative to traditional cable
Electronic Arts (EA)... Madden NFL Football, Battlefield, The Sims
Nvidia (NVDA)... technology "picks and shovels"
Salesforce (CRM)... "the power of the insider"
Check Point Software (CHKP)... security software
Citigroup (C)... banks
Visa (V)... credit-card giant
Coca-Cola (KO)... soft-drink giant
Dunkin' Brands (DNKN)... coffee and donuts
FedEx (FDX)... delivery giant
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)... health care giant
Cigna (CI)... health insurance
UnitedHealth (UNH)... health insurance
AbbVie (ABBV)... Humira, other prescription drugs
Boston Scientific (BSX)... pacemakers, defibrillators, stents
American Airlines (AAL)... airline
Delta Air Lines (DAL)... airline
MGM Resorts (MGM)... casinos and resorts
NVR (NVR)... capital-efficient homebuilder
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)... paint
Coach (COH)... luxury handbags and leather goods
Philip Morris (PM)... Marlboro, Benson & Hedges, Parliament
Reynolds American (RAI)... Camel, Newport, Grizzly

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Hertz Global (HTZ)... the death of rental cars
Avis Budget (CAR)... the death of rental cars
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)... auto parts
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)... auto parts
Macy's (M)... department store
Urban Outfitters (URBN)... clothing
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)... home goods
d**k's Sporting Goods (DKS)... sporting goods
Molson Coors Brewing (TAP)... beer

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

Last time this happened small caps exploded higher: Technician

Heidi Chung

Source: CNBC

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/last-tim ... 48709.html

[winston]

MONDAY

Okay the PPT entered, blunted the selloff two Fridays back, bought time for the big NASDAQ stocks to hold support. As that occurred, money moved into DJ30 and pushed it and the other NYSE indices to new highs though only DJ30 held it through Friday.

That makes sense: as the leading NASDAQ and SOX test the 50 day MA after pretty amazing moves higher, the other indices that lagged took to leadership and put in their own new highs. Rotation.

Now we see if the double taps at support on many of the FAANG, large tech, semiconductor stocks holds and they too move back up after a 50 day MA test.

Recall, that is the 'normal' scenario in a trend higher: a series of moves up the 10 and/or 20 day EMA, then after 4 to 5 such moves, a deeper test of the 50 day MA.

If the trend is to hold, that acts as support and starts a new set of moves up to and over the 10 and 20 day EMA.

If they can move up and the NYSE indices move up as well, that is a powerful combination and upsets the 'market rally over' predictions and calls.

Source: Investment House

[winston]

CHARTS

DJ30: Punched out a new high two Fridays back and continued higher through Friday. Taking over for NASDAQ and SOX as they tested.

SP500: New high Tuesday, early Wednesday as well, but then faded to close a the 10 day EMA for the week. Still very good action.

NASDAQ and SOX: Both sold back as we anticipated for SOX, and both held the 50 day EMA, both bouncing and then re-tapping at the 50 day EMA late week. Not out of the woods but showing they can hold up.

RUTX and SP400: Both put in higher highs on the week, then tested back to end the week. That test gave up the new highs as many smaller issues in metals, energy that had moved higher struggled late week. Still in very good position to hold and put in new highs once more in a replay of the last test back.

Source: Investment House

[winston]

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

3M (MMM)... ACE Bandages, Post-it notes, Scotch tape
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)... Band-Aids, Tylenol, Listerine
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)... Similac, Pedialyte, Ensure
AbbVie (ABBV)... Humira, other prescription drugs
Anthem (ANTM)... health insurance
Aflac (AFL)... insurance
Travelers (TRV)... insurance
Progressive (PGR)... car insurance
Wabtec (WAB)... train and freight technologies
Boeing (BA)... world's largest maker of commercial jets
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)... "offense" contractor
Northrop Grumman (NOC)... "offense" contractor
DuPont (DD)... chemicals
Monsanto (MON)... seeds and pesticides
Cemex (CX)... largest cement producer in North America
NVR (NVR)... most capital-efficient homebuilder in America
Zillow (Z)... online home listings
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)... paint
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)... tools and storage
Whirlpool (WHR)... refrigerators, washers, dryers
Dish Network (DISH)... satellite TV
New York Times Company (NYT)... global news coverage
Choice Hotels (CHH)... Clarion, Comfort Inn, Quality Inn
Citigroup (C)... banks
Franklin Resources (BEN)... asset management
Equifax (EFX)... credit reports
H&R Block (HRB)... tax preparation
Office Depot (ODP)... office supplies
FedEx (FDX)... delivery giant

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Kroger (KR)... grocery stores
Groupon (GRPN)... online marketplace
Fossil (FOSL)... watches
Pandora Media (P)... "struggling to keep up"
Snap (SNAP)... overhyped IPO

Source: Daily Wealth