US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Feb 18)

US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Feb 18)

Postby winston » Mon May 15, 2017 6:25 pm

CHARTS

SOX: Modest gain but nonetheless continuing the Wednesday gap to a new post-2000 high. The chips continue as one of the best leadership groups, rallying again after a bit of volatility during the late April/early March lateral move.

NASDAQ: NASDAQ gained modestly Friday, continuing the move up the 10 day EMA after its breakout to a new high in late April. NASDAQ has slowed its ascent, but the move remains as the same leadership stocks continue to show gains as noted at the first of the report. FAANG and friends still garnering the bids.

SP500: Lower Friday, still fading from the high set just a week before. SP500 gapped and rallied higher in late April, consolidated, rallied modestly higher, and is not consolidating again, holding near the 10 day EMA. Still in excellent position to make a new break higher. Still of course waiting for that to happen. Friday C looked better; perhaps it can lead a group of financials and thus help the SP500 make a breakout.

DJ30: Tight doji Friday at the 20 day EMA as the Dow tests back from its 2 week lateral consolidation. This perhaps is the shakeout that finally launches DJ30 higher out of its three month consolidation.

SP400: The midcaps struggled to close the week after looking so good Wednesday as they attempted a break higher. Once again that failed, and they are at the 50 day MA's. Possibly a double bottom at that level that is also at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April rally. Okay, the midcaps tried an inverted head and shoulders that didn't pan out. put in a double
bottom that broke higher, and now are testing that move with another double bottom.

RUTX: Same action as the midcaps, fading the hew high the past 2+ weeks, falling to the 50 day MA's and 50% Fibonacci retracement Friday. That makes for a small double bottom similar to SP400 and now we see if RUTX can make a new upside break.

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: US - Market Direction 39 (Oct 16 - Jun 17)

Postby winston » Mon May 15, 2017 7:45 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Amazon (AMZN)... "FANG" stock
Netflix (NFLX)... "FANG" stock
Electronic Arts (EA)... "addictive" games
Yahoo (YHOO)... Internet pioneer
Apple (AAPL)... iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch
Corning (GLW)... Gorilla Glass
3D Systems (DDD)... 3D printing
Nvidia (NVDA)... computer chips
Broadcom (AVGO)... computer chips
PayPal (PYPL)... online payments
Shopify (SHOP)... e-commerce powerhouse
Priceline (PCLN)... travel-booking website
Marriott (MAR)... hotels
Hyatt Hotels (H)... hotels
United Continental (UAL)... airline
Boeing (BA)... planes
Raytheon (RTN)... "offense" contractor
General Dynamics (GD)... "offense" contractor
Brink's (BCO)... security and protection
Home Depot (HD)... one-stop shop for home repairs
Lowe's (LOW)... one-stop shop for home repairs
NVR (NVR)... houses
Aetna (AET)... health insurance
Humana (HUM)... health insurance
Quest Diagnostics (DGX)... medical tests
Whole Foods Market (WFM)... natural and organic foods
McDonald's (MCD)... Big Mac, fries, milkshakes
Domino's Pizza (DPZ)... pizza
Constellation Brands (STZ)... Robert Mondavi, Corona
Reynolds American (RAI)... Newport, Camel

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Nordic American Tankers (NAT)... tankers
Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI)... energy infrastructure
Hertz Global (HTZ)... the death of rental cars
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT)... outlet malls
Simon Property (SPG)... malls, shopping centers, outlet malls
Signet Jewelers (SIG)... Kay Jewelers, Zales, Jared
Fossil (FOSL)... watches
Barnes & Noble (BKS)... bookstores
Viacom (VIA)... Nickelodeon, MTV, Comedy Central
Snap (SNAP)... social media fad stock

Source: Daily Wealth
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: US - Market Direction 39 (Oct 16 - Jun 17)

Postby winston » Fri May 19, 2017 9:36 pm

Rotation Within US Market

The S&P index is trading near 18 times forward EPS estimates for this year. Inside the index, Consumer Staples and Discretionary are 19-20X (yikes!) while Finance and Healthcare remain attractive at 13.5X and 15.7X. Energy remains expensive at over 25X while Industrials and Materials are no bargains either at 17.7X each. The Growth Sector (I mean Tech) is trading 18.4X.

Where Will the Money Rotate?

For some perspective on where we've come from since the election, Finance is only up 4% in the past six months and 24% in the past year.

The bulk of that return came in the week after Trump's victory. Without Dodd-Frank regulation reform, banks will give back more of that gain, but not all.

And I would expect the money to flow to Healthcare and Tech primarily because that's where the earnings growth is. Industrials and Staples are no slouches for growth either, but they are well fully-valued for their growth.

Source: Zack's
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: US - Market Direction 39 (Oct 16 - Jun 17)

Postby winston » Sun May 21, 2017 9:26 pm

MONDAY

The market certainly took on water Wednesday and did not redeem itself through Friday. The indices are still trying to swim back upstream.

So, there are still leaders that look good and sectors that look very good. Still, the fact that many leaders reversed hard off of new highs, and some indices as well, raises a caution flag to see how the market responds this week.

In the past it has shrugged off these kind of half-weeks and continued. Now with the insane, hyperventilating political news environment, it is especially something to watch. Indeed, the latest story today is that Comey is now changing his mind about whether there was attempted political influence.

The end result? It is up to the market to show if it will shake off these issues and again overcome a market jolt.

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: US - Market Direction 39 (Oct 16 - Jun 17)

Postby winston » Sun May 21, 2017 9:39 pm

CHARTS

The Index action was on some good volume and in the case of NYSE indices, on solid enough breadth. Two days up in response to the distribution reversal selling Wednesday is not a bad response. The problem arises in the technical look.

All of the indices rebounded, SP500 and DJ30 recovering the 50 day MA's. NASDAQ bounced from above the 50 day MA's. SP400 never broke back over them.

SOX was never in trouble in terms of breaking support; it bounced off the 20 day EMA though it was not immune from the Wednesday
distribution session.

The issue is where it leaves the indices heading into next week: A big break lower with distribution, coming off new highs for SOX, NASDAQ, and SP500, and no index recovering the losses. It has the look of a rebound in relief but not a false break lower and then reversal to propel back to new highs.

That said, this has happened before, i.e. technical hiccups that looked very damaging but then the buyers just outmuscled the sellers.

Happened in November 2016 when NASDAQ moved to a new high then was rocked on high volume. Held, rebounded, recovered new highs. In late January 2017 there was that island reversal that did not reverse. A new high in March was sold hard, but again NASDAQ held the 50 day MA in an 8 week consolidation and broke to new highs in April.

Of course at some point the magic lamp fails to light. This is another opportunity for the buyers to show they still want to buy, that there is still confidence at some level in the ability of the government to pass some tax, healthcare, and regulatory reform in one shape or another.

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: US - Market Direction 39 (Oct 16 - Jun 17)

Postby winston » Mon May 22, 2017 7:44 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Nvidia (NVDA)... technology "picks and shovels"
Corning (GLW)... Gorilla Glass
3D Systems (DDD)... 3D printing
Adobe Systems (ADBE)... software
Box (BOX)... cloud storage
Yahoo (YHOO)... Internet pioneer
Alphabet (GOOGL)... "FANG" stock
Amazon (AMZN)... "FANG" stock

GoDaddy (GDDY)... Internet "toll-booth operator"
Zillow (Z)... online house listings
eBay (EBAY)... online auctions
PayPal (PYPL)... online payments

Square (SQ)... mobile payments
Electronic Arts (EA)... "addictive" games
PepsiCo (PEP)... "addictive" drinks

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)... burritos
Wendy's (WEN)... never-frozen meat, Frosty desserts
Constellation Brands (STZ)... Robert Mondavi, Corona
Reynolds American (RAI)... "selling the basics"
Colgate-Palmolive (CL)... toothpaste, dish soap, deodorant
Wal-Mart (WMT)... discount retailer

Five Below (FIVE)... discount retailer
Home Depot (HD)... "fixer upper" stock
Lumber Liquidators (LL)... hardwood and laminate flooring
Owens Corning (OC)... roofing and insulation
NVR (NVR)... capital-efficient homebuilder
Marriott (MAR)... hotels
MGM Resorts (MGM)... casinos and resorts
Vail Resorts (MTN)... ski resorts

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Hertz Global (HTZ)... the death of rental cars
Ford Motor (F)... "Big Three" U.S. automaker
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT)... brick-and-mortar retail
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)... clothing and accessories
Signet Jewelers (SIG)... Kay Jewelers, Zales, Jared
Barnes & Noble (BKS)... bookstores
Time (TIME)... magazines

Source: Daily Wealth
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: US - Market Direction 39 (Oct 16 - Jun 17)

Postby behappyalways » Sat May 27, 2017 7:59 pm

Short Sellers Resist Covering as S&P 500 Retakes Record in Week
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rd-in-week
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
behappyalways
Millionaire Boss
 
Posts: 39914
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm

Re: US - Market Direction 39 (Oct 16 - Jun 17)

Postby winston » Mon May 29, 2017 7:31 pm

TUESDAY

Market closed Monday for Memorial Day. That means plenty of time for the Asian and European markets to work through the weekend stories from the G-7, etc. Then we see if the US markets pick up where the left off, including the US stock indices. SOX, NASDAQ, and SP500 at higher highs. Will they continue higher and pull the others with them?

Lots of negatives still swirl in the headlines and just because the indices hit new highs does not mean they will necessarily hold or extend them. True, but thus far the indices have met adversity with steady buying. Did it again last week.

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: US - Market Direction 39 (Oct 16 - Jun 17)

Postby winston » Mon May 29, 2017 7:38 pm

CHARTS

Nonetheless, the indices held their gains on the week and SOX even nicely extended its move to higher highs. The market continued its indifference to weakening economic data, a bond chart that looks ready to break higher, and at least through Friday, the issues in DC.

Of course with Trump back in country and leakers, the press, etc. hell bent on fighting the administration every step of the way, that could all change.

That said, last week once again showed how the indices are quick to shake off disruptive market moves and continue the trends.

SP500: Added fractionally to its new high as it successfully recaptured the Wednesday losses and Thursday put a bit of distance on the old high.

NASDAQ: Also added a nominally higher new high as it too put distance on the prior high Thursday. Still trending up the 10 day EMA, having quickly recaptured it after that Wednesday upheaval.

SOX: Impressive session, starting lower, rallying positive and adding some padding to its break to a higher post-2000 high. Many chips continue to recover and set up to deliver more upside.

DJ30: Lost a bit of ground Friday, still just shy of its March all-time high, but set up to make a new high. Of course, it has not done so and MACD is lower as it tests that high. Not exactly an upside juggernaut but the other big cap indices are leading.

SP400/RUTX: Up on the week but only made it to mid-range before fading some to the weekend. SP400 is nicely over the 50 day MA's, in position to move if the bids come. RUTX shows the same action, pausing after breaking back up through the 50 day MA's.

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: US - Market Direction 39 (Oct 16 - Jun 17)

Postby winston » Tue May 30, 2017 8:19 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Raytheon (RTN)... "offense" contractor
Lockheed Martin (LMT)... "offense" contractor
Boeing (BA)... planes
Southwest Airlines (LUV)... airline
United Continental (UAL)... airline
Vail Resorts (MTN)... ski resorts
Marriott (MAR)... hotels
NVR (NVR)... most capital-efficient homebuilder in America
Citigroup (C)... banks
Visa (V)... credit cards
MasterCard (MA)... credit cards
Square (SQ)... mobile payments "picks and shovels"
Nvidia (NVDA)... technology "picks and shovels"
Amazon (AMZN)... "FANG" stock
Alphabet (GOOGL)... "FANG" stock
eBay (EBAY)... online auctions
Sotheby's (BID)... global art auctioneer
Coach (COH)... luxury handbags and leather goods
Best Buy (BBY)... TVs, computers, appliances
Activision Blizzard (ATVI)... "addictive" games
Electronic Arts (EA)... "addictive" games
PepsiCo (PEP)... "addictive" drinks
Domino's Pizza (DPZ)... pizza
Wendy's (WEN)... never-frozen meat, Frosty desserts
Pinnacle Foods (PF)... Hungry-Man, Duncan Hines, Aunt Jemima
Weight Watchers (WTW)... weight-loss programs
Humana (HUM)... health insurance
UnitedHealth (UNH)... health insurance
Baxter (BAX)... "one of the world's greatest tailwinds"
Quest Diagnostics (DGX)... "one of the world's greatest tailwinds"

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

AutoNation (AN)... America's largest auto retailer
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)... auto parts
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)... home goods
Signet Jewelers (SIG)... Kay Jewelers, Zales, Jared
Ralph Lauren (RL)... clothing
Urban Outfitters (URBN)... clothing
Barnes & Noble (BKS)... bookstores
AMC Entertainment (AMC)... movie theaters

Source: Daily Wealth
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Next

Return to Archives

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

cron