US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Feb 18)

Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:03 pm

3 Top Factors That Will Send the S&P 500 Skyrocketing to 3,000

The bull market in stocks looks to be anything but over. Here is what one investment bank sees happening to the S&P 500 in 2018.

By Brian Sozzi

Here are several of the factors JPMorgan sees as drivers:
1. Expansionary phase of business cycle.
2. Synchonized global earnings momentum.
3. Support from U.S. tax reform.

The bank believes large-cap tech, which has led in 2017, will be a laggard in 2018 due to stretched valuations.

On the other hand, financial stocks are expected to lead on expectations for a pullback in regulations and rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve.


Source: The Street

https://www.thestreet.com/story/1442196 ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:16 am

MONDAY

Overall the economic data is up and down but trending up.

The big event of course will be the tax reform vote set for Tuesday as of this writing. Friday's rally built upon 'no' votes turning 'yes,' including Corker (Korker's). Collins and Flake are still nut jobs while McCain and Cochran, both suffering some medical impairment, are expected to be back next week. Pence is hanging around DC just in case.

With the move Friday and based upon our belief the tax bill passes one way or another, most new plays are to the upside. Some more drug plays, software, even a chip or two. The market may be extended or on the last move higher in these runs, but the plays down below are setting up.

In other words, some areas have not rallied and are setting up good patterns to turn off the lows; seen that before, many times.

So, let the good positions continue working and watch for the money pushing new plays such as the small drugs and others back upside.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:35 am

CHARTS

NASDAQ: A long time coming (since late November), NASDAQ broke to a new high. After the rotation from these stocks to start December, they are back for now after a brush near the 50 day EMA. NASDAQ is on its fourth run after the third 20 day EMA test since breaking higher off the 50 day in mid-September. Four to five such bounces are typical off a 50 day MA test.

DJ30: New high as well, the Dow now on its fifth rotation off the short term moving averages after the last 50 day EMA in early September. DJ30 is 12+% over the 200 day MA, getting stretched on this move. No signs of slowing thus far.

SP500: Still moving up off the 10 day EMA as SP500 presses its 14 week run after starting at the 50 day MA in late August. 8% over the 200 day SMA and still on the run thanks to the financial stocks working better and the big techs rallying.


Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:37 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Northrop Grumman (NOC)... "offense" contractor
Boeing (BA)... airplanes
Southwest Airlines (LUV)... airline
Norfolk Southern (NSC)... railroads
FedEx (FDX)... shipping
Etsy (ETSY)... online marketplace
MercadoLibre (MELI)... online marketplace
Corning (GLW)... smartphone screens
Ally Financial (ALLY)... online bank
Interactive Brokers (IBKR)... online brokerage
Bank of America (BAC)... "Big Four" bank
Goldman Sachs (GS)... financial services
Las Vegas Sands (LVS)... casinos
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)... casinos
World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)... pro wrestling
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)... athletic clothing
Nike (NKE)... athletic shoes, clothing
Michael Kors (KORS)... high-end accessories
Tiffany (TIF)... high-end jewelry
Estée Lauder (EL)... cosmetics
Clorox (CLX)... consumer goods
Blue Buffalo Pet Products (BUFF)... pet food
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG)... plant food
CF Industries (CF)... fertilizer
Deere (DE)... farming equipment
Caterpillar (CAT)... construction equipment
U.S. Concrete (USCR)... concrete
Consolidated Edison (ED)... utilities

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Sprint (S)... debt-laden telecom
TiVo (TIVO)... digital video recording
Duluth (DLTH)... work clothes
GNC (GNC)... vitamins
Nordic American Tankers (NAT)... oil tankers
Goldcorp (GG)... gold

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:13 am

Technical charts warn stock market may have a bumpy start to 2018

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Year-end seasonal factors may be masking overbought conditions

The S&P is above the +4σ “modified Bollinger Band.” Those bands have been rather tight about the 20-day moving average of SPX because realized volatility has been so low.

The Russell 2000 RUT hasn’t made a new closing high this month, nor has the Value Line Composite. These are more broad-based indexes, and the fact that they are slowing down (and breadth is poor) creates a negative divergence.

Perhaps it will prove to be nothing, but our general rule of thumb is that when there are negative divergences, one should not ignore sell signals.

The equity-only put-call ratios are all making new multiyear lows. Not only does this mean they are very overbought, it also means that they are on buy signals.


The fact that the volatility indexes have continued to remain at very low levels is perhaps an overbought condition.

In summary, the intermediate-term outlook remains bullish and will continue to do so as long as the S&P is above support and VIX is bumbling along at low levels.


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/techn ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Dec 25, 2017 9:17 am

CHARTS

SP500/DJ30: Both are about the same in terms of extension with the Dow a bit more than SP500. Both gapped higher Monday to new highs, both tested the gain the rest of the week, showing doij at the 10 day EMA. Modest, lower volume selling, holding near support. Thus far not flashing any warning signs based on their trading action. That is different from their technical position that is, as noted, extended with 4 and 5 runs up the short term moving averages after the last 50 day EMA test.

NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100: Both are quite similar. They too gapped upside to highs Monday then faded the move to the 10 day EMA through Friday, showing tight doji there to close the week. NASDAQ on its fourth run up the 10/20 day EMA, testing this week after its upside gap. No danger signals based upon the trading action with the stronger volume rise, lower volume fade.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:08 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

FedEx (FDX)... shipping
Boeing (BA)... airplanes
Delta Air Lines (DAL)... airline
Southwest Airlines (LUV)... airline
Union Pacific (UNP)... railroads
Arch Coal (ARCH)... coal
Peabody Energy (BTU)... coal
Southern Copper (SCCO)... copper
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)... diversified mining
BP (BP)... oil and gas
Chevron (CVX)... oil and gas
Deere (DE)... farming equipment
Caterpillar (CAT)... construction equipment
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)... paint
Home Depot (HD)... one-stop shop for home repairs
Lowe's (LOW)... one-stop shop for home repairs
Clorox (CLX)... "selling the basics"
Dunkin' Brands (DNKN)... coffee and baked goods
Grubhub (GRUB)... on-demand food delivery
Etsy (ETSY)... online marketplace
Cisco (CSCO)... Internet "plumbing"
GoDaddy (GDDY)... Internet domain names
Twitter (TWTR)... "bad to less bad" social media
Intel (INTC)... semiconductors
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU)... cars and trucks
Tiffany (TIF)... high-end jewelry
Michael Kors (KORS)... high-end accessories
Marriott (MAR)... hotels
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)... casinos
Bank of America (BAC)... America's "financial backbone"
Goldman Sachs (GS)... financial services

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK


General Electric (GE)... appliance giant
Nordic American Tankers (NAT)... oil tankers
TiVo (TIVO)... digital video recording

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:48 pm

TUESDAY and the New Year

Technically, SP500 and DJ30 should test deeper toward the 50 day EMA even if the overall rally or uptrend in those indices continues. NASDAQ is close enough to their extension to go along with them barring, as noted earlier, rotation into big techs again.

The small and midcaps are not extended as are the large caps, so the technical picture favors them continuing their uptrends barring any character changes.

What could cause that? Well, the money that headed to the exits in late 2017 is a primary concern. Bonds rallied as money moved in, oil as well, gold also. Bitcoin and other cyptos? Sure, some money went there as well.

The risk/reward with the tax cuts would suggest the small caps and midcaps continue to perform. If that money does not come back in for the new year and the better taxation scenario, then the market likely does not hit new highs again any time soon.

At the same time, if the money leaves some areas, some downside plays would be appropriate. DJ30 is extended as is SP500; some downside plays there would be appropriate.

We will look at others to start the week and add more if the action remains ambivalent to lower to start 2018.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:04 pm

CHARTS

SP500: Closed just below the 10 day EMA, filling the gap higher 9 sessions prior. Volume was significantly stronger than any on the week though still well below average.

Okay, SP500 is testing back on the last day of the year but still nothing severe. The bigger issue are the five rallies up the 10 and 20 day EMA since leaving the 50 day EMA in early September.

That is typically the max number of runs you get and that means SP500 could see some further testing to start 2018. The 20 day EMA is 2663, another 10 points from the Friday close. The 50 day is down at 2620, another 50+ points lower, and that is really where SP500 should go in a more typical technical
move.


DJ30: Faded to the 10 day EMA on the close, higher though still well below average trade. Very much some pre-yearend positioning. As with SP500, five rotations up the 10 and 20 day EMA and due a test lower at least to the 20 day EMA at 24,500. The 50 day is near 23,960, and as with SP500, after this kind of run that is typically where you would expect it to test.


NASDAQ: Dropped to the 20 day EMA on rising but still well below average volume. That makes four tests of the 20 day EMA for NASDAQ since leaving the 50 day in late September. That leaves NASDAQ another rotation to go, but if SP500 and DJ30 sell NASDAQ will likely be hard pressed to rally as they fade unless there is a round of rotation back into techs.


Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:31 am

Stocks could start new year with gains, but risks start popping up in January

Stocks could ride a tailwind into 2018, bolstered by the best annual gains in four years and the promise of a generous earnings boost from corporate tax cuts.

With the holidays over, there are some key economic reports, with December's employment report looming Friday as the first major data of the year.

As stocks celebrate the big new corporate tax cuts, all the news out of Washington this month may not be rosy for markets, particularly if the Trump administration appears to be moving toward protectionist actions on trade.

by Patti Domm

The Santa rally period is the last five trading days of the year and the first two days of the new year, and if the market is higher, the odds are better for a positive year.

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/29/stocks- ... KW,18CCI,1
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