MONDAY
Who will the French vote for? If the 'wrong' people get clear majorities world markets could sell, giving something of a 'Trump election' opportunity? Perhaps. It will not be the end of the world, markets, or anything other than perhaps a bloated bureaucracy of control that is the EU.
Ok, off the soap box. The status quo won't like threats to the status quo so the reaction is initially negative but the markets figure out it won't be the end. Wasn't for the UK, wasn't for the US, won't be for France.
The issues are more with world economies and whether things are as rosy as we are told. I believe the US has negative growth right now and that Q1 was actually negative (as we will see when it is revised in the future). Fed surveys indicate Q2 has slowed even more than late Q1; that only bolsters my argument the US is likely in recession as a weaker Q2 would likely be a second of negative growth.
And why would things be improving? There was a lot of hope post-election and even in the weekly word from the administration that tax and healthcare reform are on their way. Yet, NO policies have been passed or implemented and it does not appear that any are close to being ready to implement.
Yes, there was a burst of post-election activity, but that has not carried over to 2017, and the longer it takes, the less people believe in it and the less they will go out on a limb ahead of actual policy passage and make
expenditures.
Source: Investment House