US - Market Direction 38 (Apr 16 - Sep 16)

US - Market Direction 38 (Apr 16 - Sep 16)

Postby winston » Wed Apr 06, 2016 4:40 pm

6 Reasons the Bull Market Won't Go Away

By Kira Brecht

"One of the advantages of the so-called '2 percent recovery' is there has not been enough growth to create traditional excesses -- inflation, inventories, overstaffing, overbuilding, overbuying, overlending -- that would typically lead to the next recession. This could turn out to be one of the longest economic expansions"


Source: US News

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/6-reasons ... 00883.html
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Re: US - Market Direction 37 (Oct 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Wed Apr 06, 2016 4:47 pm

Overbought condition tips scales in bears’ favor

By MICHAEL A. GAYED

Source: Market Watch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/overbo ... eid=yhoof2
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Re: US - Market Direction 37 (Oct 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:34 am

Caution: Watch Out for a Bearish Reversal

By John Kosar

Despite last week’s strong rally, investor complacency, weakness in oil prices, seasonality and declining long-term interest rates collectively warn that the U.S. stock market is within weeks of an important top.

A bearish reversal from the 2,082 to 2,116 area in the S&P 500 would be evidence that a correction is beginning.


Source: Profitable Trading

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2016/04 ... -reversal/
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Re: US - Market Direction 37 (Oct 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:27 pm

Traders see ‘extraordinarily low’ chance of further gains

by Leanne Miller & Alex Rosenberg

Earnings season unofficially kicks off when Alcoa reports after the bell on Monday


With the S&P 500 trading at 18 to 19 times earnings, we're currently at the high end of a "very boring range" for the market — and with a low chance that earnings catch up to this relatively high multiple, stocks seem primed to fall.


Source: CNBC.com

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/06/traders- ... =103526057
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Re: US - Market Direction 37 (Oct 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Fri Apr 08, 2016 5:52 am

Is Market Breadth Beginning To Sour?

Source: Zero Hedge

http://investingchannel.com/article/386 ... wbWXKR96M9
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Re: US - Market Direction 37 (Oct 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Sat Apr 09, 2016 5:53 pm

My Downside Target for the S&P 500 Is…

We could see a full 50% retracement of the recent rally

By Sam Collins

Source: Investor Place

http://investorplace.com/2016/04/daily- ... wjPUqR96M8
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Re: US - Market Direction 37 (Oct 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 10, 2016 9:17 pm

MONDAY

Some volatility showed up, some distribution as well, all at resistance. With the overall large rounded market top of the past 16 months that suggests the rally is at least weakening.

It is testing the move, and sellers are taking something of a shot. Not a cutthroat selloff, but showing more gumption than they have had.

Holding the gains into earnings may not be that great of a near term technical maneuver. If there is disappointment, gains are dumped. If there is some selling this week ahead of results, a bit of cushion is there to rebound.

Indices at resistance after big runs. The Fed and central banks backing markets. Earnings that are expected to be lower. Some emboldened sellers but not nearly enough to break the market, just take down some sectors that enjoyed big rallies. Earnings season itself that is weeks long now.

The point: it may take awhile to get to the next real move. Even if there is some selling, that doesn't mean it is a new dive lower. That seems to be the either/or game that most are playing right now: new highs or new lows.

Often things are somewhere in between, but most of the time the market is not in the situation of a 5 year run based on stimulus, stimulus is ended, central banks are still acting as if they will act again, economic data worsening, corporate profits worsening . . you get the picture.

It is an inflection period given near resistance. Given the overall rounded market top. Given the indecision about how bad profits will be in Q1. Given Q1 GDP could be negative. Given the Fed and the world central banks and their agenda to keep stocks higher without new amounts of US stimulus if possible.

We plan on still looking at individual patterns that make sense where the Fed is and where the market is overall. We have some index plays in the opposite direction ready to go. We will move into positions as they show good moves but not whole bore; too much volatility, too many trigger happy people out there right now.

Be patient, don't feel the need to be as aggressive. Trade what you believe in, trade it well. If you have doubts or questions don't do it or get out of the trade.

Confidence is important and at times such as these if the volatility is wearing on you, don't do it. There WILL be much easier times to trade ahead. The KEY is to not just check out but to be ready when those times show up. That way you are ready to get on the bus at the bus stop, not those people chasing it.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 37 (Oct 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 10, 2016 9:30 pm

CHARTS

All of the charts are the same: rally to next resistance then just over a week of lateral to slightly lower movement.

Very much a normal test of a rally, and nothing has really changed for the upside.

Some distribution as noted, some more volatility, both suggesting the upside's strength is ebbing.

Thus, while the test is normal, it has a negative overlay not seen as much on the run. Overall, the sellers are a bit stronger, but there is no knockout punch yet.

They are more into technical boxing than going for the knockout, doing the work to the body that sets up the eventual fall.

Overall I would say they end up falling from this setup, but you have the Fed, other central banks (Japan not intervening to undermine the yen and thus helping US markets), and earnings that could cause some near term upside if they are
better than the declines anticipated.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 37 (Oct 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:19 am

Here's Why the Bear Market Rally Could End Soon

By MICHAEL E. LEWITT

Source: Money Morning

http://moneymorning.com/2016/04/10/here ... -end-soon/
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Re: US - Market Direction 37 (Oct 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:27 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Altria (MO)... cigarettes
Philip Morris (PM)... cigarettes
Constellation Brands (STZ)... booze giant
PepsiCo (PEP)... soft drinks
McDonald's (MCD)... fast food
Kimberly-Clark (KMB)... consumer-products giant

Chubb (CB)... insurance
Travelers (TRV)... insurance
Lockheed Martin (LMT)... "offense" contractor
Northrop Grumman (NOC)... "offense" contractor

3M (MMM)... manufacturing
American Water Works (AWK)... water utility
Digital Realty Trust (DLR)... digital storage REIT
Kinross Gold (KGC)... gold stock
Newmont Mining (NEM)... gold stock

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)... pharmaceutical firm
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT)... oil royalties
Toyota Motor (TM)... Japanese carmaker
H&R Block (HRB)... tax service


Source: Daily Wealth
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