Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 16, 2016 9:06 am

EUROPEANS ARE WAITING FOR THESE 5 UPCOMING ELECTIONS WITH BATED BREATH

SINGAPORE (Nov 15): Brexit and the US presidential election were inarguably two of the most major global political events of 2016. Yet, they are potentially only the beginning of much more to come.

Now that the most divisive presidential election in US history has come to an end, another continent in political turmoil will soon be stepping into the arena: Europe.

Will these upcoming key elections produce even more shock results this year, and in the first half of 2017?

Dec 4, 2016: Austrian presidential election & Italian constitutional referendum
Norbert Hofer from the far-right Freedom Party will once again be facing off The Greens’ Alexander Van der Bellen. Although Van der Bellen narrowly triumphed over the Hofer in May before the results were annulled, opinion polls are currently predicting that the latter will be victorious as the “Donald Trump of Europe”.

Italy’s third-ever constitutional referendum is planned to be held on the very same day, where it will be decided whether the Italian Constitution will be amended as Prime Minster Matteo Renzi proposed in 2014. Should the bill be approved, members of senate will halved, with the remaining stripped of their powers to vote on several major legislations and the budget, amongst others.

Mar 15, 2017: Dutch general elections
According to the latest Peilingwijzer poll of polls, the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is currently leading with a projected 17.3-20% of the vote. It is closely followed by Dutch far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), which is led by anti-Islamic politician Geert Wilders, is now estimated to win 23-27 seats in the 150-seat parliament, which is maximum 18% of the vote.

April-May, 2017: French presidential election
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen, also self-dubbed as ‘Madame Frexit’ has become even more confident of being elected French president after Donald Trump’s win – to the extent of predicting her election as a third event of “global revolution” after Brexit and Trump’s US presidential victory. Le Pen is intending to hold another EU referendum should she get into power next year.


May 4, 2017: UK local elections

UK’s May 2017 local elections will all the more keep Theresa May’s supporters at the edge of their seats following the recent Article 50 court ruling, which requires obtaining approval from Members of Parliament (MPs) in order to trigger an EU exit. The outcome will not only make or break May’s position as Prime Minster, but will also shed some light on whether she will make a success out of Brexit, or not.

Source: The Edge

http://smr.theedgemarkets.com/article/e ... 8-87358173
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Nov 20, 2016 2:27 pm

The French presidential election

Europe’s biggest populist danger

Who can beat Marine Le Pen?

ONE by one, liberal democracies are waking up to find their certainties trampled by the march of close-the-borders populism. First came the vote for Brexit, then Donald Trump’s election as America’s next president.

Now, France is bracing itself for a momentous presidential vote in 2017 in which the stakes could not be higher—not just for the well-being of France, but for the future of Europe itself.

Of the two spots in the run-off next May, one will almost certainly go to Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Front (FN). That is turning the French primaries campaign into a nerve-racking contest: a race for the candidate best placed to defeat Ms Le Pen (see article). She has vowed to pull France out of the euro and to hold a “Frexit” referendum on the country’s membership of the European Union.

The EU can survive, however creakily, the loss of Britain. But were France to abandon the club, it would spell the chaotic end of a project that, with its single market and its day-to-day political engagement, has sustained prosperity and undergirded peace. It is essential that French voters have a decent alternative to Ms Le Pen.

The good news is that several are on offer. On the left, Emmanuel Macron, the young former Socialist economy minister, said on November 16th that he is running for the presidency. He has thought harder than most about France’s need to adapt if it is to cope with technological disruption. His pitch is to voters on both the left and the right who share an unapologetically pro-European, liberal outlook.

But his chances of getting to the second round are not great. He is standing as an independent, and thus will have to fight for the left’s vote against the official Socialist candidate: probably either François Hollande, if the spectacularly unpopular president decides to seek re-election, or Manuel Valls, his more centrist prime minister.

The centre-right’s options are more plausible. Seven Republican candidates are standing in their party’s two-round primary on November 20th and 27th, among them a former president (Nicolas Sarkozy) and two former prime ministers (Alain Juppé and François Fillon).

Astonishingly, the three leading candidates all agree with Mr Macron on the need for a liberalising fix to France’s struggling economy. They promise to loosen rules on working time, modernise the welfare system, raise the retirement age and curb public spending, which consumes 57% of GDP, second only to Finland among OECD countries.

A reason such ideas are circulating is that, within Europe, France has consistently pursued statist and at times protectionist drawbridge-up policies—and has hence suffered low growth and high unemployment. But liberalisation is not popular. France’s Socialist government struggled to push through even a modest labour reform this year and was crippled in the process.

For the leading Republicans to promise to keep people at their desks until the age of 65, give up the 35-hour week or abolish the wealth tax risks antagonising the very voters they will need to win over if they are to defeat the FN.

This is why any candidate aspiring to beat Ms Le Pen must evince trustworthiness. That rules out Mr Sarkozy, with his record of a volatile presidency, troublesome cases of alleged corruption and opportunist moves to steal Ms Le Pen’s anti-immigration ideas.

The front-runner, Mr Juppé, brings a more measured temperament and a greater appeal to voters on the left—polls suggest that both he and Mr Sarkozy could beat Ms Le Pen, but that his margin of victory would be ten points greater. Mr Fillon, whose economic programme is the most ambitious among Republicans, is making a late charge.

The trouble is that none of them answers the country’s yearning for political renewal. Mr Sarkozy and Mr Fillon, who served for five years as his prime minister, are both open to the charge that they did not do last time what each promises to do next.

Meanwhile, a Juppé-Le Pen run-off, pitting the establishment insider against the populist insurgent, would carry the haunting echo of the battle between Hillary Clinton and Mr Trump. The 71-year-old Mr Juppé first went into politics when the Oval Office belonged to Jimmy Carter.

Le Penned-in

In such a high-stakes race, the readiness of leading candidates to promote liberal policies is laudable. They are surely right in believing that the best antidote to populism is not to pander to it, but to offer an explicit and full-blooded defence of open trade, Europe and ethnic diversity.

Who has the best chance of defeating Ms Le Pen will depend in large part on who can credibly offer rejuvenation—if not in person then at least in policies that harness globalisation as a force for prosperity while dealing with its problems. That mainstream parties have no space for the likes of Mr Macron says much about the ossification of French politics.

It will be a tragedy if Ms Le Pen turns out to be the freshest candidate on offer. France, the country that gave birth to modern European integration, should not be the one to destroy it.

Source: The Economist
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Nov 29, 2016 10:21 pm

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Risks Out There 04 (Aug 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:58 pm

Italy’s referendum could spark another European banking crisis: Economist
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/29/italys-r ... omist.html
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:21 pm

2016.11.27文茜的世界周報/西方價值最後繼承人?梅克爾宣布拚連任
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDhSiwicmdI
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Thu Dec 01, 2016 10:47 am

Quitaly

Nearly 20% of all Italian loans on the books are non-performing, and the banking sector is hemorrhaging cash that should be going to truly viable businesses.

First, the Italian banking system goes into freefall. That’s hard to imagine considering that the most visible of all Italian banks – UniCredit, Unione di Banche Italiane, Banca Popolare di Milano, and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena are all already down 60% this year and have at least $400 billion in problematic paper.

Second, business confidence plummets.

Third, business reforms will fall flat. Unlike Britain, Italy has neither a viable political nor economic system. Crony capitalism is a national sport, while reform is but a concept.

Then, the real fireworks begin as the euro implodes.

Again, political experts are telling you that there will have to be complex negotiations for that to happen – that you cannot abrogate international treaties by popular vote, that Italy’s court system could block constitutional reform, and my personal favorite… that the polls show Italians don’t want to leave the euro.

Source: Total Wealth Research

http://totalwealthresearch.com/2016/11/ ... /#deeplink
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Thu Dec 01, 2016 11:49 am

The coming collapse of the world's largest economy

Source: Daily Crux

http://thecrux.com/doug-casey-on-the-co ... t-economy/
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Thu Dec 01, 2016 8:34 pm

Norway’s Wealth Fund Wants to Add $129 Billion in Stocks

by Sveinung Sleire and Mikael Holter

Seeks to boost equity portion of portfolio to 75% from 60%
Sees returns below 3% over the next decade amid low rates

Norway’s $860 billion wealth fund recommended it add about $130 billion in stocks and sell off bonds as it presented a bleak view on the returns from its investments across the globe in the decades to come.

That will raise the expected average annual real return to 2.5 percent over 10 years and to 3.5 percent over 30 years, compared with 2.1 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, under the current setup.


Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -in-stocks
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Sat Dec 03, 2016 7:53 am

Why Sunday could be a dark day for Europe...and the world

With Austrians choosing a new president, and an Italian referendum that could finish Premier Matteo Renzi, December 4 may have dire consequences globally.

In Austria, Norbert Hofer, head of the Nazi-founded Freedom Party, is running favourite to win a presidential election –


In Italy, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s referendum on Sunday to change the Italian constitution – to reduce the powers of the country’s Senate, and of municipal governments across the country – shows every sign of backfiring on him


160,000 sub-Saharan asylum seekers that have come ashore in Italy this year


In March, in national elections in Holland, pollsters currently forecast a victory for Geert Wilders’ Party of Freedom. Mr Wilders is currently on trial for inciting racial hatred, in particular against Dutch Moroccans and against Muslims in general.


French national elections in May

The extreme right wing Marine Le Pen and her National Front party are already shaking up French politics. It seems that the election last Sunday of Francois Fillon to lead the Republican Party into the May election was direct tactical positioning for a battle with Ms Le Pen.

M. Fillon is seen in France as a “Thatcherite” – essentially as far to the right as the Republicans are able to go to fend off a Le Pen-led threat from the country’s increasingly confident right wing.


Germany’s national elections in autumn next year

No-one is yet forecasting the emergence of an extreme right government, but it is widely recognised that Angela Merkel has paid a heavy electoral price for her courageous but controversial decision to offer safe haven to asylum seekers from conflict in the Middle East.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/global-eco ... eand-world
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:10 pm

This super bubble is about to burst. Here's how to make huge profits

Source: Daily Crux

http://thecrux.com/this-super-bubble-is ... e-profits/
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