Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 23, 2016 4:05 pm

UBS Chairman: Monetary Policy Cannot Solve European Problems

UBS Chairman Axel Weber told CNBC that the European Central Bank (ECB) needs to recognize that monetary policy cannot solve European problems and Europe has been overly relying on monetary policy.

Weber suggested that Europe has to encourage private enterprises to invest in infrastructure in the region to boost growth as infrastructure will be main focus in next 10 years and change the fate of Europe.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Sep 25, 2016 2:28 pm

Eurozone slows as German growth falls behind France
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... nd-france/
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:07 pm

The Deutsche Bank crisis could take Angela Merkel down – and the Euro
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... --and-the/
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:03 pm

Deutsche Bank's Pain Is Germany's Too
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... bank-bluff


behappyalways wrote:The Deutsche Bank crisis could take Angela Merkel down – and the Euro
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... --and-the/
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:50 am

Germany 'prepares Deutsche Bank rescue'
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37496268
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:20 pm

2016.09.25文茜的世界周報/德國柏林議會選舉 梅克爾政黨再敗
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgVLgf6I2Lk
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri Oct 07, 2016 7:19 am

The migrant crisis

Source: Daily Crux

http://thecrux.com/doug-casey-on-the-migrant-crisis/
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Oct 08, 2016 8:17 pm

From The Economist


Europe’s banks

The chronic continent

Deutsche Bank’s distress is symptomatic of a wider malaise

Oct 8th 2016 | From the print edition


IT MUST have been an exquisite moment. On September 30th the central bank in Athens issued a statement reassuring investors that the Greek banking system was safe—from a crisis engulfing Germany’s flagship bank. Any Schadenfreude felt in Europe’s periphery at Deutsche Bank’s tumbling shares should be stifled, however. Deutsche is not about to fail: it can survive a harsh funding squeeze, its solvency is not in doubt and if push came to shove, the German government would surely support it. But many of its woes are symptomatic of problems that bedevil the whole continent.

Plenty would deny that. Deutsche is more leveraged than its peers; it is unusual in lacking a crown jewel around which it can base a business model; and it has a stack of derivatives whose prices are hard to observe in the market. More positively, it is light on the non-performing loans that clog the balance-sheets of banks in places like Italy. But in other ways its problems have a very familiar ring. Deutsche is struggling to make a decent return. It has taken too long to face up to its problems. And the market it operates in is overbanked. Years after American banks were forced to clean themselves up, too many European lenders are still flailing as a result (see article).

Europeans prefer to blame others for the turmoil. Deutsche has lashed out at “forces in the market” for its most recent bout of trouble. But its shares had already fallen by 42% this year before news broke last month of a proposed Department of Justice (DoJ) fine of $14 billion for mortgage-related misdeeds. German politicians insinuate that the mooted fine represents revenge for Europe’s recent tax case against Apple, an American champion. Yet the DoJ has slapped large fines on American banks, too. Deutsche’s vulnerability to shocks is the problem, not the shocks themselves.

Fingers also point at global regulators. The boss of Credit Suisse, Tidjane Thiam, says his sector is “not really investible”. It is true that the rules have got much stricter in the past few years, particularly for institutions, like Deutsche, that have big investment-banking arms. It is also true that ultra-loose monetary policy, and in particular the negative interest rates that now prevail in much of Europe, eat away at banks’ profitability. But some banks cope better than others in this painful environment. The IMF has compared returns on equity before and after the financial crisis. Those at large European banks fell by 11.4 percentage points, whereas those at American lenders dipped by only three points. Rather than blaming speculators, Americans and regulators, Europe’s bankers and policymakers need to put their own house in order.

Within institutions, that means cutting costs and raising capital. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the average cost-to-income ratio at an American bank in 2015 was 59%; Italy’s figure stood at 67% and Germany’s at 72%. Scandinavian banks already operate with much lower costs than their peers elsewhere in Europe. The axe is now swinging: Commerzbank, another struggling German lender, and ING, a Dutch bank, have announced thousands of job cuts in the past few days (see article).

But more can be done. Pay is one obvious lever. Deutsche’s bankers trousered roughly the same amount in annual compensation between 2011 and 2015, even as the bank’s share price dived. And before shareholders complain too loudly about that, recall that in 2007-15 the dividend payments by 90 euro-zone banks amounted to €223 billion ($250 billion). Their retained earnings would have been 64% higher at the end of that period if they had not paid out dividends.

Within markets, consolidation is needed. Too much consolidation risks exacerbating the problem of overmighty banks. Too little, however, and earnings sputter. Some European markets have been clearing away excess capacity. Almost half of the decrease in euro-zone bank branches between 2008 and 2014 was accounted for by Spain alone. Again there is more to do. According to the IMF, 46% of European banks account for just 5% of deposits. Germany’s massed ranks of savings and co-operative banks, for example, drive down margins for everyone. Without pruning, their returns on equity are projected to fall towards zero as a result of ultra-low rates, regulation and “fintech” rivals.

Recovery would happen a lot faster if euro-zone policymakers grasped the simple truth that a banking calamity can unfold slowly as well as quickly. Bold solutions are needed. A deposit-guarantee scheme that stretches across the euro zone would encourage cross-border consolidation. Using public money to recapitalise the weakest banks in countries like Italy and Portugal, and requiring them to slim down in return, is the fastest way to return them to health. Proper fiscal stimulus by European governments would cut the chances that central banks have to keep interest rates so low. For questions about the survival of big European banks to be swirling almost ten years after the financial crisis started is utterly damning.
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 10, 2016 9:32 pm

Europe: Macro surprise has turned positive again, with the immediate impact of Brexit in the Eurozone (and the UK) hard to detect.

But global macro is a worry for Sebastian Raedler, our European Equity strategist.

Banks are a clear concern and the ECB’s policy options are hard to reconcile with the needs of Banks.

Cyclicals have outperformed Defensives by 15% in three months and look very vulnerable if the wider market retraces, as we expect (our end 2017 Stoxx 600 target is 345).

The UK’s £ problem suggests FTSE-100 remains underpinned.

Source: DB
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 12 (Jul 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:17 pm

The Potentially Disastrous Vote No One’s Talking About

by MICHAEL LEWITT

In addition to the problems at Deutsche Bank, which is the real Creepy Clown in the global markets, Italy is getting ready to vote on changing the Italian constitution on December 4.

The referendum would limit the powers of the Italian senate, which is viewed as a source of political gridlock. The vote is seen as a vote of confidence in the current pro-European Union government headed by Matteo Renzi.

If the referendum fails, it is likely to open the door for anti-EU parties to take over the government. Sources in Italy tell me that the polls are currently leaning toward defeating the ballot measure, something that markets are not expecting.

The Financial Times recently warned: “An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the Eurozone within a very short period. It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash.”

Coming from a publication not prone to hyperbole, this warning should be taken seriously. Italy is home to the world’s third largest bond market (after the US and Japan) and the third largest economy in the European Union (after Germany and France).

I’ll have more on that story soon (and show you how you can profit).

Based on a likely Fed rate hike in December, the vote in Italy, the problems at Deutsche Bank, and the sad spectacle of the US presidential election, I advise readers to sharply reduce their risk right now.

Source: Sure Money

http://suremoneyinvestor.com/2016/10/th ... /#deeplink
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