US - Market Direction 36 (Oct 14 - Sep 15)

[winston]

Cautionary Signs From The S&P 500

http://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/201 ... ing-Digest

[winston]

Market timer Tom McClellan sees stocks set up for ‘ugly decline’ as early as Thursday

McClellan is bullish today, but he expects definitive peak in stocks between Aug. 20 and Aug. 26

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market ... eid=yhoof2

[behappyalways]

Dow tops. More evidence for a bear market. Target 15,800.
https://www.facebook.com/bartonsglobal

[winston]

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Progressive (PGR)... insurance
UnitedHealth (UNH)... insurance
W.R. Berkley (WRB)... insurance
Lockheed Martin (LMT)... "offense" contractor
Northrop Grumman (NOC)... "offense" contractor
General Dynamics (GD)... "offense" contractor
Toll Brothers (TOL)... homebuilder
D.R. Horton (DHI)... homebuilder
Lennar (LEN)... homebuilder
NVR (NVR)... homebuilder
Home Depot (HD)... home improvement
TJX Companies (TJX)... retail
Hormel (HRL)... Big Food
McDonald's (MCD)... fast food
Constellation Brands (STZ)... booze


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Hyatt Hotels (H)... hotels
Wal-Mart (WMT)... retail
The Gap (GPS)... clothing
Ralph Lauren (RCL)... clothing
Aéropostale (ARO)... clothing
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)... clothing
Twitter (TWTR)... social media
Yelp (YELP)... online reviews
Chevron (CVX)... Big Oil
ExxonMobil (XOM)... Big Oil
Halliburton (HAL)... oil services
Alcoa (AA)... aluminum
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)... copper and gold
Union Pacific (UNP)... railroads
Cummins (CMI)... diesel engines

Source: Daily Wealth

[behappyalways]

Stocks and exchange-traded funds were automatically halted more than 1,200 times, according to Nasdaq.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/24/investi ... -stack-dom

[winston]

Reality Check: This Is Where the S&P 500 SHOULD Find Its Floor

The Shanghai Composite is the face for the global meltdown, but this was never about China

By James Brumley

Source: Investor Place

http://investorplace.com/2015/08/sp-500 ... dwn-tIirIU

[winston]

Here's Why the Market Is Set to Bounce By Jeff Clark

A couple of weeks ago, I told you the stock market was set up to make a big move… but even I didn't expect it to be this big…

The S&P 500 Index dropped as low as 1,970 on Friday. And yesterday, the index opened at 1,965…

Although we're still down only about 10% from the highs reached last month, it feels worse than that.

Investors haven't suffered through a correction of more than 10% since November 2011. And I suspect most folks have forgotten what it feels like when their stock market portfolios drop in value.

But as I'll explain below, this isn't a time to panic. It looks like traders will soon get some relief from the pain…

As you can see below, the recent breakdown in the S&P 500 exceeded our target price of 2,000.

Please Enable Images to See this

This action has pushed most technical indicators into "extreme oversold" territory.

One way to gauge this is by looking at the McClellan Oscillators. These measure overbought and oversold conditions in the stock market. Readings of more than 60 indicate severe overbought conditions, and often precede large declines in the markets. Readings below -60 display extreme oversold conditions, and usually lead to strong bounces in stock prices.

These are the sorts of readings we see at the end of short-term decline phases. And they often mark the beginnings of a stock market bounce.

Let's start by taking a look at the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator (the "NAMO")…

Please Enable Images to See this

On Friday, the NAMO closed at -63.

Now take a look at the NYSE McClellan Oscillator (the "NYMO")…

Please Enable Images to See this

The NYMO closed Friday at -71.

These are among the most oversold readings we've seen over the past year.

Here's how the S&P 500 has performed after previous oversold readings in the past year…

Please Enable Images to See this

In every case, readings this extreme in the McClellan Oscillators led to solid bounces in the broad stock market. The S&P 500 gained more than 10% in one month when it bounced off of oversold conditions last October.

The most recent bounce from late July, though, was a much more modest 2% gain in about one week.

Given the severity of the decline we've seen over the past week, and the extreme oversold conditions of technical indicators like the NYMO and NAMO, I suspect the coming bounce will be more on par with what we saw last October.

Source: www.growthstockwire.com

[winston]

Where Does The Market Go From Here…

By Tyler Durden

From Doug Kass:

Here’s my view of the possible scenarios ahead, which form the basis of my fair-market-value calculation:

Scenario #1: Economic Acceleration Above Consensus (probability: 10%).Characteristics: 3% real U.S. GDP growth, 2% to 3% inflation and 8% to 12% profit growth. Outcome: Stocks climb 7.5% over the next 12 to 18 months and my S&P 500 target is 2245.

Scenario #2: Status Quo (probability: 25%). Characteristics: 2% to +3% real U.S. GDP growth, 1.5% to 2% inflation and 5% to 9% profit growth. Outcome: Stocks climb 5% over the next 12 to 18 months and my S&P 500 target is 2195.

Scenario #3: Muddle Along (probability: 25%). Characteristics: 2% real U.S. GDP growth, 1.5% inflation and 3% to 5% profit growth. Outcome: Stocks gain 0% to 5% over the next 12 to 18 months and my S&P 500 target is 2140.

Scenario #4: A Garden Variety Recession (probability: 25%). Characteristics: Negative real U.S. GDP growth, less than 0.5% inflation and a decline in profits. Outcome: Stocks drop 13% to 17% over the next 12 to 18 months and my S&P 500 target is 1775.

Scenario #5: A Deep Recession (probability: 15%). Characteristics: Negative real US GDP growth, deflation and a large drop in profits. Outcome: Stocks drop by more than 20% over the next 12 to 18 months and my S&P 500 target is 1625.

When I combine the above scenarios’ probabilities against my S&P targets for each, I come to an S&P 500 fair-market value of about 1990 (vs. the roughly 1945 the futures are showing right now).

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2015/08 ... from-here/

[winston]

What the heck is going on with stocks?

Has the Wall Street bull fallen over?

In the midst of the massive stock market selloff, an image has been circulating the Internet of Wall Street's iconic bull lying on its side.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/26/investi ... -stack-dom

[winston]

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Not many... Stocks had their worst week since August 2011.

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

ExxonMobil (XOM)... Big Oil
Chevron (CVX)... Big Oil
BP (BP)... Big Oil
General Motors (GM)... automaker
Ford Motor (F)... automaker
Harley-Davidson (HOG)... motorcycles
Boeing (BA)... airplanes
Caterpillar (CAT)... heavy equipment
Deere (DE)... heavy equipment
AT&T (T)... telecom
Verizon (VZ)... telecom
Bank of America (BAC)... bank
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)... financial services
Morgan Stanley (MS)... financial services
American Express (AXP)... credit cards
Aflac (AFL)... insurance
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK)... Warren Buffett's holding company
Coca-Cola (KO)... soda
PepsiCo (PEP)... soda
Hershey (HSY)... chocolate bars
McDonald's (MCD)... fast food
Colgate-Palmolive (CL)... consumer products
Procter & Gamble (PG)... consumer products
General Electric (GE)... conglomerate
Xerox (XRX)... office technology
Oracle (ORCL)... Big Cheap Tech
EMC (EMC)... Big Cheap Tech
IBM (IBM)... Big Cheap Tech

Source: Daily Wealth