US - Market Direction 36 (Oct 14 - Sep 15)

Re: US - Market Direction 36 (Oct 14 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:12 am

Technical analysis: ‘Serious damage has been done’

by Richard Smith

Source: TradeStops

http://thecrux.com/these-charts-show-wh ... y-be-over/
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Re: US - Market Direction 36 (Oct 14 - Dec 15)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:06 am

Is Another Global Financial Crisis on the Horizon?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/20 ... e-horizon-
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Re: US - Market Direction 36 (Oct 14 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:18 pm

There's More Volatility Ahead... Here's What to Do By Jeff Clark

The stock market likely has several weeks of choppy action ahead of it.

It has been four years since investors last endured a market correction of 10% or more. The last time it happened was between July and October 2011, when the S&P 500 fell 17%.

Even at the lows last Tuesday, the most recent decline only pushed the S&P 500 about 12% below its 2,130 high. That's a relatively mild correction. But again, it's the largest we've seen in four years.

The rally off of the lows has been sudden and dramatic – which is normally what happens when conditions get so oversold. This is the same sort of action we saw during the correction in 2011. And based on what we saw in 2011, there's more volatility ahead…

Take a look at what the S&P 500 did in 2011…

Please Enable Images to See this

There are a few things to take note of on this chart. First, the low in early August 2011 was about 75 points (or 6.1%) below its nine-day exponential moving average (EMA). And it was almost 175 points (or 13.5%) below its 50-day moving average (DMA).

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) momentum indicator was also at its lowest level of the year and there was no sign of positive divergence (the MACD making higher lows while the S&P 500 is making lower lows). We didn't get any positive divergence until the market came back down and dropped to a lower low in October.

The action between August and October was a choppy mess. The S&P 500 consolidated within a wide 100-point trading range for two months before rallying into the end of the year.

Now, take a look at how the S&P 500 chart looks today…

Please Enable Images to See this

At the lows last Tuesday, the S&P 500 was 125 points (or about 6.2%) below its nine-day EMA. It was 225 points (or roughly 11%) below its 50-DMA. Those are extreme oversold conditions. But they're on par with what we saw back in 2011.

Also notice how the MACD indicator dropped to the same extreme -40 oversold level that it did in 2011. And there was no sign of positive divergence at last Tuesday's low.

Finally, note that the first bounce off the bottom pushed the S&P 500 back up to the nine-day EMA, where it hit resistance and turned lower. Now, go look at the 2011 chart. Back then, the first bounce off the low rallied the S&P 500 up to its nine-day EMA. That's where it met with resistance and stocks turned back down.

If the similarities to 2011 continue, then stocks are likely to chop around in a wide trading range for the next few weeks before we get the final retest of last week's low – which so many people seem to be looking for.

Traders need to stay nimble here. Be quick to take profits. And expect volatility to stay high.

Source: www.growthstockwire.com
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Re: US - Market Direction 36 (Oct 14 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:31 pm

Valuation Guru Says Dow Should Be Trading at 11,000

By Valentin Schmid

Source: Epoch Times

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1741684 ... campaign=3
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Re: US - Market Direction 36 (Oct 14 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:25 am

CHARTS

SP500: Friday a hangman doji below the 10 day EMA after the sharp Wednesday and Thursday gains.

Almost a perfect 50% Fibonacci retracement of the August dive lower.

First major test of that decline and a very important one given the severity of the drop.

Important first challenge of the recovery.

Note also that SP500 is just showing its own death cross as the 50 day SMA moves below the 200 day.

Source: investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 36 (Oct 14 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:46 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Smith & Wesson (SWHC)... guns
Signet Jewelers (SIG)... jewelry

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Exelon (EXC)... utility
Plum Creek Timber (PCL)... timberland
ArcelorMittal (MT)... steel producer
Barrick Gold (ABX)... gold mining
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY)... gold mining
Yamana Gold (AUY)... gold mining
Royal Gold (RGLD)... gold royalties
Fortuna Silver Mines (FSM)... silver mining
Silver Wheaton (SLW)... silver royalties
Boston Beer (SAM)... beer
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)... casinos
Tiffany (TIF)... jewelry

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Market Direction 36 (Oct 14 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 10, 2015 7:52 pm

Stocks: Much Higher Highs to Come By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

This bull market in stocks is not even close to over yet.

Stock prices should have much higher highs ahead, based on the weight of the evidence.

Both the short-term picture and the long-term picture are just about perfect for higher highs.

Let me explain…

In the short run, now is a good time to buy…

Investors are scared. We hit a "record" negative sentiment extreme, according to Jason Goepfert (of www.SentimenTrader.com). While you can measure this in a variety of ways, history tells us that almost all of those ways suggest a dramatically higher stock market 12 months from now. (We recently wrote about two of these reasons here and here.)

In the long run, the picture is pretty darn good, too…

Stock prices hit their ultimate peaks when:

1. Stock values get OVERLY EXPENSIVE, and
2. Investors are WILDLY OPTIMISTIC.
Neither of those conditions are in place today.

The simplest conclusions are:

1. We're definitely not at the bottom, but
2. We're definitely not at the top yet, either!
We're somewhere in the middle…

For example, our True Wealth value indicator (which is simply the price-to-earnings ratio PLUS short-term interest rates) actually says that stocks are hardly expensive. We are definitely nowhere near the valuation extreme we saw in the dot-com bubble in 2000. Take a look:

We're definitely not at the bottom like in 2008-2009. But we're not at the top, either.

Meanwhile, investors are not WILDLY OPTIMISTIC… They're still far from it.

One way to see this is by looking at consumer confidence versus the stock market:

Consumer confidence peaked in the late 1960s, in 2000, and in 2007 – right in line with the major stock market peaks.

Consumer confidence bottomed at stock market bottoms as well, in 1982, 1991, and 2009.

Today, we are clearly not at the bottom in confidence. But we're not at the top, either. This is not 2000.

Summing up, on both short-term and long-term indicators, stocks look just fine. They actually look like they have plenty of upside potential left.

The weight of the evidence tells me that now is not a time to bail.

Please follow your trailing stops, in case I am wrong… But the historical evidence is pretty strong here.

Stocks could do very well over the next year. I feel confident – based on history – that we'll see higher highs in the U.S. stock market.

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Market Direction 36 (Oct 14 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:49 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Royal Caribbean (RCL)... cruises
JetBlue Airways (JBLU)... airlines
American Woodmark (AMWD)... cabinet maker
Aaron's (AAN)... rent-to-own
Vantiv (VNTV)... payment processor
CDW (CDW)... IT services
National Beverage (FIZZ)... soft drinks
Smith & Wesson (SWHC)... guns

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Barrick Gold (ABX)... gold mining
Kinross Gold (KGC)... gold mining
Yamana Gold (AUY)... gold mining
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY)... gold mining
Royal Gold (RGLD)... gold royalties
First Majestic Silver (AG)... silver mining
ArcelorMittal (MT)... steel mining
Denbury Resources (DNR)... oil and gas
U.S. Steel (X)... steel
GoPro (GPRO)... personal cameras
Media General (MEG)... media
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)... casinos
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD)... donuts
Avon Products (AVP)... beauty products

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Re: US - Market Direction 36 (Oct 14 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:32 pm

Get Ready to Short the Market By Jeff Clark

The bears are out in force this week.

Lots of financial-television talking heads are pointing to the seasonal tendency for stocks to decline in mid-September as a reason to be bearish right now. There's even an old Wall Street saying that supports this view…

"Sell on Rosh Hashanah. Buy on Yom Kippur."

The origin of the saying has more to do with freeing one's mind from the distraction of finance so that one can reflect on more important things – like family – during this important Jewish holiday. Then, once the holiday is over, we can get back to focusing on money.

Rosh Hashanah began on Sunday. So folks looking to free their minds should have been out of the market by the end of last week.

On the other hand, there has been a fairly consistent trend over the past two years of stocks rallying in the days before a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement. The next announcement is scheduled for Thursday.

So we have conflicting strategies here. Do we sell on Rosh Hashanah, or do we buy going into the FOMC announcement?

Unfortunately, the charts aren't really giving us any clues. Most indicators are neutral across nearly all time frames. The trading range over the past few days has been relatively tight. So energy is building for a larger move. But the direction of that move is a coin toss.

Fortunately, we can look at the chart of the 2011 correction for clues…

Please Enable Images to See this

You'll recall I showed you this chart earlier this month. Back then, I warned that if the current correction follows the same course, then we're in for several weeks of choppy, back-and-forth action in a wide trading range and eventually a retest of the early September lows.

The blue arrows point to where I think we are right now in the correction cycle.

Now, take a look at the current chart of the S&P 500…

Please Enable Images to See this

We're still a little too early in the correction period for a drop back down to retest the lows. In fact, if the current script plays out similar to 2011, we should be looking for another push higher – perhaps to the 2,030 level – before we suffer a retest.

Add to this the prevailing bearish sentiment – which is a contrary indicator – plus the tendency for the market to rally going into an FOMC announcement, and there's a good case for higher stock prices over the next few days.

But – and this is a really important but – back in 2011, the S&P 500 rallied to within spitting distance of its 50-day moving average (DMA) line before turning lower and retesting the lows of the correction.

That test of the 50-DMA was an ideal setup for a short trade. Aggressive traders could have shorted stocks at that level, put a stop on the trade just above the 50-DMA to minimize any potential losses, and profited as the market fell back to retest the lows.

If the S&P 500 can rally up toward the 2,030 level over the next few days, then traders will have a similar ideal setup for a short sale.

Aggressive traders can look to short the market as the S&P 500 approaches its 50-DMA… put a stop just above the 50-DMA in order to minimize any potential losses… and look to profit as the market comes back down to retest the lows from earlier this month.

Source: www.growthstockwire.com
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Re: US - Market Direction 36 (Oct 14 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:52 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Eli Lilly (LLY)... Big Pharma
Greatbatch (GB)... pacemakers
D.R. Horton (DHI)... homebuilder
NVR (NVR)... homebuilder
JetBlue Airways (JBLU)... airlines
Royal Caribbean (RCL)... cruises
Expedia (EXPE)... online travel
H&R Block (HRB)... tax service
Cablevision Systems (CVC)... cable television
T-Mobile (TMUS)... telecommunications
Activision Blizzard (ATVI)... video games
Under Armour (UA)... sports retailer
Campbell Soup (CPB)... food
Constellation Brands (STZ)... booze


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Sunoco (SUN)... oil refining
Coeur Mining (CDE)... precious-metals mining
DuPont (DD)... chemicals
Huntsman (HUN)... chemicals
ArcelorMittal (MT)... steel
U.S. Steel (X)... steel
Titan International (TWI)... farm and construction wheels
Kennametal (KMT)... cutting tools and drill bits

Source: Daily Wealth
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