US - Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 16)

[winston]

ECRI’s Achuthan: We’re in a recession already By Barry Ritholtz

Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy.


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/07/ec ... n-already/

[winston]

More Evidence of Economic Weakness by Lance Roberts

The recent spate of negative economic news continued on Wednesday, with the release of mortgage purchase applications which showed a continued decline, even as mortgage interest rates hit historic lows and the wholesale trade data which showed accelerating weakness in consumption trends.

http://pragcap.com/more-evidence-of-economic-weakness

[winston]

New survey results could be a terrible sign for the U.S. economy

Companies are growing more pessimistic about the U.S. economy this year and plan to limit hiring, as the European debt crisis hurts sales and concern rises over the looming so-called fiscal cliff, a survey showed.

Some 62 percent of businesses project no change in employment over the next six months, according results of a National Association for Business Economics' survey released today in Washington.

The share is up from 48 percent in the group's April report.


Source: Bloomberg

[winston]

Evidence of Coming Recession is Overwhelming

We first noticed the first signs that the economy was beginning to soften about three months ago.

Now the evidence of a slowdown has become so overwhelming that it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that we are headed for a recession.

We cite the following as evidence.

http://pragcap.com/evidence-of-coming-r ... erwhelming

[winston]

Peter Shiller believes that the US is likely already in a recession.

[winston]

17 Numbers Say The U.S. Is Already in a Double Dip Recession
Author: GuruFocus

If you were hoping for a recession in 2012, then you are going to be very happy with the numbers you are about to see.

The U.S. economy is heading downhill just in time for the 2012 election.

Retail sales have fallen for three months in a row for the first time since 2008, manufacturing activity is dropping like a rock, sales of new homes are declining again, consumer confidence has moved significantly lower and a depressingly small percentage of businesses anticipate hiring more workers in the coming months.

Even though the Federal Reserve has been wildly pumping money into the financial system and even though the federal government has been injecting gigantic piles of borrowed cash into the economy, we still haven’t seen an economic recovery.

http://www.yolohub.com/economy/17-numbe ... -recession

[winston]

We maintain our view that the US capex cycle is peaked out, and broader total business sales, which includes manufacturing, wholesale and retail, suggest the slowdown is at hand.

Essentially, we think the economy is slowing already with or without the fiscal cliff.

But the uncertainty regarding it, and the fact that Congress will unlikely settle the issue before the Nov12 Presidential Elections, will make the slowdown worse than it is, raising the odds of a US recession in 1H13 to more than even in our view.

Source: Phillips

[winston]

65 Signs The Economic Collapse Has Already Begun…

Author: The Economic Collapse Blog


http://www.yolohub.com/economy/65-signs ... eady-begun

[winston]

3 Bullish and Bearish Charts by Cullen Roche

1. The US labor market – Better than most think and no signs of imminent collapse

2. Citi’s Economic Surprise Index is turning up

3. The US Housing market is stabilizing.


Now for the not so good news:

1. The budget deficit is slowing substantially.

2. Corporate profit margins have likely peaked.

3. The global economy remains a huge question mark.

http://pragcap.com/3-bullish-and-bearish-charts

[winston]

Could 100 Million Americans Really Be On Welfare?

There are more Americans dependent on the federal government than ever before in U.S. history.

According to the Survey of Income and Program Participation conducted by the U.S. Census, well over 100 million Americans are enrolled in at least one welfare program run by the federal government.

Many are enrolled in more than one. It is really hard to believe how rapidly some of these federal welfare programs have grown.

http://www.yolohub.com/economy/could-10 ... on-welfare