US - Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 16)

Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Sat Mar 24, 2012 8:22 am

"It's a Dead-Man-Walking Economy" by Doug Casey

In an interview with Louis James, the inimitable Doug Casey throws cold water on those celebrating the economic recovery.

Doug: Lobo, get out your mower; it's time to cut down some green shoots again, and debunk a bit of the so-called recovery.

Louis: Ah. I have to say, Doug, the so-called recovery is looking more than "so-called" to a lot of smart folks. Even our own Terry Coxon says the recovery is real, albeit weak.

Doug: Terry's probably looking at it by the numbers, some of which are reported to be improving. But let's come back to the numbers later and start with fundamentals.

The first order of business, as usual, is a definition: a depression is a period of time in which the average standard of living declines significantly.

I believe that's what we're seeing now, whatever the numbers produced by the politicians may seem to tell us.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/d ... 439ED0312A
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Sat Mar 24, 2012 3:10 pm

The Recovery? You’re Lookin’ At It. by Joshua M Brown

The article everyone's buzzing about right now comes to us from Binyamin Appelbaum at the Economix blog...

Recessions are generally regarded as abnormal disruptions and recoveries as inevitable returns to normalcy — in large part because that is how the economy has behaved for more than a century. Even after the Great Depression, growth returned to its long-term trend; it just took a while.

The bleaker view – which remains, to be sure, the view of a distinct minority — is that the years before the recession were abnormally good, and that while the recession was abnormally bad, reality lies halfway in between.

The present situation, in other words, is about as good as it gets.

A paper that will be presented Thursday afternoon at a conference organized by the Brookings Institution is the latest contribution to this literature.

Essentially, a Harvard prof and a Princeton prof make the case that because of demographics and other things about the makeup of the workforce, growth was already slowing and on a weaker course before the 2007 credit event came along - now that we're past that, you're basically looking at as good as it gets.

This will be controversial in many circles but an important read.

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... kin-at-it/
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Thu Mar 29, 2012 6:31 am

Eric Sprott: The [Recovery] Has No Clothes by Tyler Durden

What a difference a month makes.

Now that Greece has been papered over, the bulls are back in full force, pumping up the equity markets and celebrating every passing data point with positive exuberance.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet, however.

Very little has actually changed for the better, and it's certainly too early to start cheerleading a new bull market.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eric-spro ... no-clothes?
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Sat Mar 31, 2012 6:10 am

The Path to Destruction

The facts are clear…

… 6 million homes are delinquent on their mortgages or in foreclosure. We can thank banks—central, investment and commercial alike—that securitized risky collateralized debt obligations (CDOs).

… $1.2 trillion is spent on the National Security State each year. Add that up since the Bush administration, and you can easily see why we have $15.5 trillion in visible debt.

… 12.8 million Americans are unemployed today, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 8.3%—depression-era levels.

… One out of seven Americans is on food stamps — that’s 46 million people! But contrary to Newt Gingrich calling Obama the "food stamp president," more Americans were added to the food stamp rolls under Bush.


And yet, the intellectual centers, the powers that be who decide when we’re in a recession and out of a recession stated that the mortgage-induced recession that began in December 2007 ended in June 2009.


Source: Charles Goyette
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Sat Mar 31, 2012 8:39 am

Rebutting the Recovery: Opinion By Jeff Nielson

NEW YORK (Bullion Bulls Canada) -- The U.S. recovery is like one of the Simpsons episodes featuring mythical daredevil Captain Lance Murdock.

After performing one of his heroic stunts, and inevitably ending up with his shattered body in a crumpled heap, he shakily raises one hand to give the "thumbs up" sign, and then we hear in the background the announcer proclaim, "He's all right!"

However, even clever Simpsons humor ceases to be funny if one is forced to watch/listen to the same joke, day after day, for nearly three years.

The U.S. mainstream media is not nearly as clever/funny as the Simpsons.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11475744 ... L_atb_html
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:17 am

Everything Is Going To Be Alright?

Is the U.S. economy going to be okay? Well, if the only source you listened to was the mainstream media, you would be left with the distinct impression that the U.S. economy is heading toward a full recovery and that everything is going to be alright.

Unfortunately, that is not the case at all. The United States is rapidly becoming poorer as a nation and less competitive in the global marketplace.

At the same time, consumer debt levels are rising, corporate debt levels are rising, state and local government debt levels are rising and the U.S. government is indulging in a debt binge unlike anything the world has ever seen.

Considering the insane amount of money the U.S. government has been pumping into the economy, we should have seen a much more robust recovery by now.

Instead, the employment statistics have barely moved and government dependence is at an all-time high. That is really sad, because this is as good as “the recovery” is going to get.

The next major economic downturn is just around the bend, and in future years millions of us will desperately yearn for the “good old days” of 2012.

Below, I have compiled a list of things that I have entitled “Everything Is Going To Be Alright?”

http://yolotraderalerts.com/?p=3691&utm ... nvestments
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Thu Apr 05, 2012 8:12 am

Bloomberg reports that John Burbank, founder of $3.8 billion hedge fund Passport Capital LLC, expects a U.S. economic recession this year or in early 2013.

“We see a recession in 2012 or early 2013 for the U.S. which will be difficult to avoid as Europe contracts and China moderates to 7 percent to 8 percent targeted growth,” Burbank wrote in a note to investors.

“The equity market is confused about true economic growth in the developed world — we believe it will be much lower than forecast.”


Source: Money News
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Sat Apr 07, 2012 7:38 am

19 Clear Signs of Economic Trouble Headed Our Way

The Economic Collapse Blog


Most Americans have no idea how much economic trouble is heading our way.

Most of them just assume that everything will eventually “return to normal” just like it always has before and that those running our economy “know what they are doing” and that we should trust them to do their jobs.

Unfortunately, these beliefs are being reinforced by the bubble of false hope that we are experiencing right now.

http://www.yolohub.com/economy/19-clear ... ed-our-way
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Tue Apr 10, 2012 8:25 am

Don't Show This Chart To The President by Tyler Durden

Here is today's chart of the day from BofA, which begs one simple question: when will the two time series recouple, because recouple they will, and how will America react to the realization it was lied to for 2% worth of unemployment "improvement"?

The chart says it all.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/dont-show-chart-president
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Fri Apr 20, 2012 8:06 am

What If There Was No Solution To Our Economic Problems ?
Author: The Economic Collapse Blog

For those waiting for our economic problems to be solved, you can quit holding your breath.

There is simply not going to be a solution to our economic problems on the national level.

So why is that the case?

Well, it is because the economic policies of both major political parties are very, very similar when you take a close look at them.

http://www.yolohub.com/economy/what-if- ... c-problems
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