US - Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 16)

Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Wed Feb 15, 2012 7:07 am

It's Not Just Gasoline Consumption That's Tanking, It's All Energy

It's not just gasoline consumption that's declining--petroleum and electricity consumption are also dropping. Is that indicative of economic growth?

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/20 ... thats.html
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Wed Feb 15, 2012 9:54 pm

Poor America

With one and a half million American children now homeless, reporter Hilary Andersson meets the school pupils who go hungry in the richest country on Earth.

From those living in the storm drains under Las Vegas to the tent cities now springing up around the United States, Panorama finds out how the poor are surviving in America and asks whatever happened to Barack Obama's vision for the country.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01c2y2b
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby kennynah » Wed Feb 15, 2012 9:58 pm

got money to spend on invading iraq, afghanistan, and dark covet missions all over the world, in the name of democracy, but no money to feed its own citizens... shame
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Thu Feb 16, 2012 8:28 am

Retail Sales: A Leading Indicator for the Jobs Market?

If recent history is any guide, a notable deceleration in the pace of U.S. retail spending following a period of strong gains, signals trouble ahead for the jobs market.

As the chart shows, each time that monthly retail sales growth has risen above 8.5 percent and subsequently reversed course (by roughly two percentage points or so), the turnaround has preceded a peak in year-on-year increases in total nonfarm payrolls.

Whether it reflects the fact that people are quick to rein in spending when they sense trouble brewing at work (or in the economy as a whole), or are having a harder time finding a job than previously, is not clear, but it makes intuitive sense that spending shifts would become evident before companies begin the difficult process of freezing or slashing head counts.

Of course, correlation is not causation, and two decades worth of monthly data is not what some would consider sufficient for a rigorous analysis. Nonetheless, it may be another reason not to take today's "unexpectedly" weak retail sales report, or the less-than-robust data reported in last year's final two months, too lightly.

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2012 ... arket.html
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:39 am

Both Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) downgraded their expectations for U.S. GDP to 1.8% from 2.2%.

Meanwhile, respected ECRI (Economic Cycles Research Institute) is also on record seeing a recession ahead.


Source: The Street
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Sat Mar 10, 2012 6:37 am

Our "Let's Pretend" Economy: Let's Pretend "Job Growth Is Best Since 2006"

Instead of just swallowing Ministry of Propaganda swill, let's examine actual data.

If we do that, we find job growth is mostly smoke and mirrors.

The Ministry of Propaganda and its media minions are announcing that "job growth is on a tear" and the "best growth since 2006."

How about we look under the hood of the employment euphoria?

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/20 ... nd_09.html
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Sat Mar 10, 2012 7:09 am

Did We Jump The Gun on This Economic Recovery?

Not so fast. Those that are publicly declaring that an economic recovery has arrived are ignoring a whole host of numbers that indicate that the U.S. economy is in absolutely horrendous shape.

The truth is that the health of an economy should not be measured by how well the stock market is doing. Rather, the truth health of an economy should be evaluated by looking at numbers for things like jobs, housing, poverty and debt.

Some of the latest economic statistics indicate that unemployment is getting a little bit worse, that the housing market continues to deteriorate, that poverty in America continues to soar and that our debt problem is worse than ever.

If we were truly experiencing the kind of economic recovery that the United States has experienced after every other post-World War II recession we would see a sharp improvement across the board in most of our economic statistics.

But that simply is not happening. Sadly, this is about as much of an “economic recovery” as we are going to get because soon the economy will be getting much worse. So enjoy this period of relative stability while you can.

http://yolotraderalerts.com/?p=3378&utm ... ur%20Radar
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 11, 2012 8:29 pm

Check again after 1Q Window Dressing ....

Markets Point to Economic Recovery in 2012 by Marc Lichtenfeld

I’m a glass half full kind of person. That’s quite an accomplishment coming from my family, who not only believes the glass is half empty but that it’s teetering on the edge of the counter and is about to get knocked to the floor and shatter into a million pieces. Then we’ll have to wear shoes in the kitchen for a month, otherwise we’ll get shards of glass impaled in our feet.

Over the past year, while talking about the markets and the economy with my father, he’d often skeptically ask the question – “What’s going to make the economy recover?”

My answer was always the same. “I don’t know what’s going to cause it to recover, but the market is telling us it is going to recover.”

The markets are a forward-looking mechanism. They rise and fall a few months ahead of macro-economic trends.

http://www.investmentu.com/2012/March/e ... -2012.html
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Sat Mar 17, 2012 11:38 am

Is This The Chart That Has Bernanke So Worried? by Tyler Durden

It's the data stupid. Simply put, as the chart below shows, the strength of trend of key US data over the past three months has been disappointing in aggregate (of course one can cherry pick BLS prints or sub-indices of ISM) and the worrying similarities between 2011 (when the same overshoot of optimism occurred) is only too real a problem for Ben and his buddies if they take away the Kool-Aid too early once again and let us drink our own stale sugar-free water.

So the next time you hear some long-only asset manager or octogenarian wealth adviser say the 'data has been very strong' so buy-and-hold big-tech or dividend-payers, do them a favor and remind them of this chart and what happened last year.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-has ... so-worried
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 19, 2012 8:11 am

Tax Revenues based upon withholding, lower year to day, 2012 versus same time in 2011. Stronger economic activity?

The numbers ebb and flow, but almost through Q1 in an economic expansion tax receipts are lower.

$8.35B less than 2011 (Daily Treasury Statement, Department of Treasury)

How can a recovery be accelerating when tax revenues are down?

We know that tax revenues rise even as rates are cut because economic expansion generates more jobs and a larger base to tax.

If revenues are down you know
1) there is less economic activity because
2) less incomes and income to tax.


Summary:
Slowing data yes.
Still has not broken any uptrends, however.
Stock market is not showing any major rollover in economic activity.


Source: Investment House
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