US - Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 16)

US - Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 05 (Jan 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 09, 2012 6:30 am

Boat Show Indicator

Next week we will have more economic data, but I want to talk about a couple of other economic indicators first before I get into that. One of them is what I called the "boat show" indicator.

The boat shows are just getting started now, and the New York one as has been underway. After a five-year decline in new boat sales, they are finally starting to see them rise. They have been on the rise since August 2011.

During the recession, new boat sales fell 55%. Previously-owned boats declined only 7%. The pre-owned is the largest part of the market, but the new boats, just as in housing sales, are always important because it gives a better indication of the health of the market. If people are looking to buy new, they have the money and the confidence to do so.

There is an old saying in the economy that the luxury is the last to go down when the economy goes down and the first to come back when the economy comes back. Regardless of their size, boat sales are considered a luxury item.

You need the extra cash to buy one. It is nice to see them improving in sales. We will have to see how the boat shows hold out, but that is a positive indication for the economy coming back.

It flies somewhat in the face of the idea that the economy will go down in 2012. There are reasons for it to go down, but there are reasons to think it is on the comeback trail as well.

The smaller boats are still outperforming the big ones. The small ones always come back faster. It will be interesting to see if the big luxury yachts come back this year.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US Slowdown - How deep & long ? 04 (Aug 10 - Jan 12)

Postby winston » Wed Jan 11, 2012 7:40 am

Not Flush

If these charts are any guide, it looks like Americans relied on what little cash they had left -- or didn't really have -- to buy what they wanted (needed?) in the run-up to the holidays.

Not exactly flush, are they?

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2012 ... flush.html
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Re: US Slowdown - How deep & long ? 04 (Aug 10 - Jan 12)

Postby winston » Sat Jan 28, 2012 5:02 am

U.S. growth quickens, but speed bumps ahead

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in 1-1/2 years in the fourth quarter, but a rebuilding of stocks by businesses and slower business spending warned of weaker growth in early 2012.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday, a sharp acceleration from the 1.8 percent in the prior three months.

It was, however, a touch below economists expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3 percent rate, and two-thirds of the increase was due to the build-up in business inventories.

Soft underlying demand and a sharp slowing in core inflation supported the Federal Reserve's decision this week to keep in place an ultra easy monetary policy to nurse the recovery.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/ ... safternoon
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Re: US Slowdown - How deep & long ? 04 (Aug 10 - Jan 12)

Postby kennynah » Sat Jan 28, 2012 5:13 am

market reacted negatively to this econ data initially... but in the end, it pared off the losses by the end of the day..

tight ranged today

ps : W, no need sleep ah?
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Re: US Slowdown - How deep & long ? 04 (Aug 10 - Jan 12)

Postby winston » Mon Feb 06, 2012 6:57 am

Weekly Review

The problems are still here because the policies are still there. Gasoline is spiking again and will be over $4/gallon this summer at this rate; there is no change in Administration policy on this and indeed its actions are further stymieing improvement (e.g. Canadian pipeline).

Food costs are still spiking and nothing suggests that is backing off despite the Fed's belief there is no inflation.

40,000 new regulations as of January 1 continue to undermine and browbeat small businesses, making profitability ever more elusive.

And let us not forget the Defense Authorization Act that, for the first time, allows the government to use our military as a police force and allows the warrantless and secret removal and detention without representation of ANY US citizen deemed, in the opinion of the President or authorized party, a terrorist threat.

In conclusion, the recovery is simply not that great. Q4 GDP was atrocious with most of the gains due to inventories piling up.

Even taken at face value it is a paltry level, one-third of what it should be in similar recoveries at this period. The jobs rate is up as the non-farm levels show, but it is still pathetic and we are swapping high pay jobs for low pay jobs as we push IPO's offshore and discourage investment in the US.

We are conditioning the youth to a 'new normal' of European mediocrity and stand the very real risk of losing our economic dominance and condemning our progeny to generations of decreased standard of living.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US Slowdown - How deep & long ? 04 (Aug 10 - Jan 12)

Postby winston » Tue Feb 07, 2012 7:28 am

What Are the REAL Economic Indicators Saying?

By: Karim Rahemtula (Wall Street Daily )

I’m always on the lookout for new and different economic indicators that help decipher the direction of the market and the economy.

Most of the common ones are lagging indicators. They show what has happened a month or two back. By the time they’re released – housing starts, Purchasing Manager’s Index, money supply, etc. – the market has already made its move. So the data is virtually worthless.

The point is to get ahead of the market. To do that, we need indicators that tell us where the market is heading, not where it’s been. (But that’s just common sense!)

In technology, for instance, one of the best indicators of what’s coming down the pike is not the semiconductor book-to-bill ratio, but channel checks.

The semiconductor book-to-bill ratio measures demand for chips based on past orders that need to be filled.

Channel checks, on the other hand, are more frequent. They’re real time, boots-on-the-ground checks made by analysts at the retail level – how units are selling to customers whether wholesale or retail.

Companies do exist that compile this type of data and pass it on to investment house analysts – for a fee. Or, as in the case of Raj Rajaratnam, you could just place a phone call to the company and get some inside scoop from a friend you’re paying off on the side. Of course, that’s totally illegal – as Mr. Rajaratnam remembers painfully each day in his prison cell.

Channel checks, unfortunately, aren’t practical on the individual level, because the cost for either doing intensive checks oneself or paying someone else to do them usually outweighs the profit motive.

What I’m saying is run-of-the-mill channel checks aren’t for you and me… so where else can we look?

Checking Channels on the Sly

Fortunately, there are indeed other indicators that can serve a similar purpose and provide timely information. You just need to get creative!

For example, when I was younger, I used to drive around hotel parking lots in Central Florida and count cars every night to figure out what traffic at Disneyworld was going to be like that season.

Disney’s shares do better when the traffic count is higher. Likewise, freight car traffic is another indicator – when you see a lot of empty transport cars, the economy isn’t doing so great.

Well, this past weekend, I met up with a bunch of people in the printing business. Now, most people think that in this age of technology, printing is obsolete. With e-business, who goes to the print shop anymore? You’d be surprised.

The printing business is alive and well – and enjoying a major consolidation as the smaller mom-and-pop stores close down.

Business cards, presentation binders, brochures and a whole host of other print needs are still around.

And, for the first time in two years, the people I met with are seeing a major uptick in business.

My sources, who run several large printing operations in Florida under a major franchise, tell me that business is trending up as much as 20% since last fall.

More surprising still is that they’re now seeing major orders coming in from home builders- the sector that once needed brochures, placards and other design work.

According to them, that market has been dead for more than two years. But now, those same homebuilders – ones that almost went under – are once again developing properties and requiring print services.

That is a leading indicator!

The takeaway is this: The economy is starting to roll with enough momentum that even the boats that sunk the farthest are beginning to float to the surface.

And if this boots-on-the-ground indicator holds true – and my sources tell me that they absolutely track the economy’s trajectory, both up and down – then there are better times to come. And that is very good news for stocks.

http://www.yolohub.com/economy/what-are ... ors-saying
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Re: US Slowdown - How deep & long ? 04 (Aug 10 - Jan 12)

Postby kennynah » Tue Feb 07, 2012 11:49 am

market already recovered some 70% from 09 peak to 09 trough... we still discussing this "how long and deep" ah? :lol: :lol:
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Re: US Slowdown - How deep & long ? 04 (Aug 10 - Jan 12)

Postby winston » Tue Feb 07, 2012 12:00 pm

This thread is about the economic conditions in the US.

Prices on Share Markets is not really the Economy, or is it ? :?
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Re: US Slowdown - How deep & long ? 04 (Aug 10 - Jan 12)

Postby kennynah » Tue Feb 07, 2012 12:01 pm

typo....shd be 08 peak

kennynah wrote:market already recovered some 70% from 09 peak to 09 trough... we still discussing this "how long and deep" ah? :lol: :lol:
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Re: US Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 04 (Aug 10 - Jan 12)

Postby winston » Sat Feb 11, 2012 1:14 pm

Number of Americans on Foodstamps:

A disturbing, tragic long-term growth trend.

2007: 26.3 million
2008: 28.2 million
2009: 33.5 million
2010: 40.3 million
2011: 44.7 million


Source: USDA's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
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