Europe - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Oct 08)

[kennynah]

summary so far of european econ data ... keeps showing signs of stresses...

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05 Jun 2008 10:48 GMT

EUROZONE: Data released in the eurozone Thursday,

** GERMANY: Manufacturing orders in April once again defied expectations of a monthly improvement, posting a 1.8% decline in real and seasonally adjusted terms on weak demand for everything except consumer goods, the Economics Ministry reported Thursday.

** FRANCE: 1Q ILO jobless rate 7.5% (7.2% mainland only) after 4Q 7.8% (mainland 7.4%, revised down from 7.5%)

- Well below expected; most analysts expected no change in either rate

** SPAIN: April workday adjusted industrial production came in at -0.2% compared to the same month last year after -3.2% y/y in March (revised down from -2.6%). Meanwhile, April unadjusted output rose 11.3% y/y after a downwardly revised -13.8% y/y (-13.3%).

** SPAIN: Apr s/adj industrial output +1.4% m/m, Mar -2.2%

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clearly inflation pressure in UK is outweighing decline in economic growth

05 Jun 2008 11:00 GMT

UK: BOE MPC keeps interest rates unchanged, as widely expected
- Bank rate remains at 5.00%
- UK SONIA swap curve was pricing in a 0% chance for a move.
- MNI survey showed no analysts, out of 32 asked, expected a move.

BUT

REACTS: Sterling markets show little reaction to BoE decision to leave Bank rate unchanged -- as expected.

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05 Jun 2008 10:33 GMT
UK: UK car registrations -3.5% y/y

[kennynah]

06 Jun 2008 10:49 GMT

EUROZONE: Releases in the eurozone Friday,

** BUNDESBANK: Germany 2008 GDP +2.3%; 2009 GDP +1.4%
- Average Germany 2008 HICP 3.0%; 2009 2.2%; upside risks
- Germany inflation over 3% most of 2008, could be back to 2% in 2009
- Germany economic outlook improved since Dec; inflation picture worse
- Global growth in 2008 to be moderate; pick-up in 2009 on US recovery

[kennynah]

06 Jun 2008 11:59 GMT
ECB WATCH: Rate Hike Talk Criticized As Markets Reel

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Portugal become the first European government to protest against the European Central Bank's talk of raising interest rates next month, saying a hike would hurt its fragile economy.
"This scenario of higher interest rates will raise problems for many Portuguese families who are in debt," Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos told reporters after a meeting in Paris.

Global financial markets on Friday were still reeling from the ECB's surprise talk of a possible rate hike next month to fight inflation, a step some economists say could backfire.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's comments prompted a sharp drop in the dollar against the euro, which reached $1.5600 early Friday, fully two cents higher than the morning before.

((truncated))

[winston]

U.K. Producer Prices Rise at Fastest Pace Since 1986 (Update1) By Brian Swint

June 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. producer prices increased at the quickest rate in two decades in May, adding to the case for the Bank of England to resist interest-rate cuts as the economy edges towards a recession.

Prices charged by factories rose 1.6 percent from April, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. That's the most since comparable records began in 1986 and double the median forecast of 32 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, prices rose 8.9 percent, also the most in the series.

Record oil prices have increased companies' costs, encouraging them to raise prices to preserve profits. The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged last week after Governor Mervyn King signaled that there is little scope to lower borrowing costs as inflation will exceed the government's upper limit for ``several quarters.''

``It's not just about oil any more -- core prices are also rising, and that makes it worse,'' said David Tinsley, an economist at National Australia Bank in London who formerly worked at the Bank of England. ``The combination of higher inflation and weak output will keep the bank on hold for at least the rest of this year.''

The Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate at 5 percent on June 5. Policy makers forecast on May 14 that growth will slow to an annual rate of 1 percent in the first quarter, the least since the end of the last recession 17 years ago.

Petroleum, Food

All 10 categories of producer prices rose on the year, the statistics office said. The gain from April was led by increases in other manufactured products and petroleum products. Food costs rose 2 percent in the month, the most since records began.

The monthly increase in producer prices was the highest since March 1981, the statistics office said. This measure isn't fully comparable with the current series because it shows a definition of manufacturing which excludes petroleum refining.

Crude oil prices surged to a record $139 a barrel last week. The pound has fallen about 13 percent against a basket of its biggest trading partners since July, raising the cost of food and fuel imports.

Charter Plc, Europe's biggest maker of welding gear, said May 16 that it has been recovering increases in costs of raw materials such as steel, by raising prices.

Raw material costs jumped 27.9 percent from a year earlier, the most since the series started in 1986.

Inflation Concern

Consumer-price inflation, targeted by the Bank of England, jumped the most since 2002 in April, rising to 3 percent from 2.5 percent, as oil and food costs increased. King predicts inflation will exceed the government's upper 3 percent limit in coming months. British Airways Plc, Europe's third-biggest carrier, is raising fuel surcharges this month by as much as 38 percent.

Natural gas for delivery this winter costs 54 percent more than utilities paid at the start of the year and futures contracts for the winter that starts in 2009 traded higher still, according to London-based broker ICAP Plc. Centrica Plc, Britain's largest energy supplier, said last month that first-half profit will drop because of dearer fuel.

So-called core producer prices, which exclude food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum, rose an annual 5.9 percent in May, the most since 1991.

``It would be nice to see core pressures peaking, but it's a bit early,'' said Stewart Robertson, an economist at Morley Fund Management in London, which manages $310 billion in assets. ``Producer-price pressures are a worry.''

[kennynah]

giving more reasons for ecb rate hike potential.... but greece is not among the leading nations in eruozone...the big guns are german, france and italy.... although at this time, spain is facing major economic challenges with rising fuel and lower growth rate... spain's drivers are demonstrating now as of this write...
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09 Jun 2008 09:53 GMT

ATHENS (Thomson Financial) - Greek CPI for May was up 4.9 percent year-on-year, from 4.4 percent recorded in April, the National Statistical Service (NSS) said.

The results were above even the top end of expectations. Last week a Thomson Financial News poll of leading local economists predicted that the rate would come in between 4.5 percent to 4.8 percent.

In the year to May, CPI was up 3.6 percent, compared to 2.9 percent a year earlier.

NSS also noted that the European harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) was up 4.9 percent in May compared to 2.6 percent a year earlier.

For the 12 months of June 2007 to May 2008, HICP was up 3.7 pct compared to 3.1 percent a year earlier, it added.

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[millionairemind]

K - we just need Trichet to come and TCSS abit about inflation and rate tightening to have another BIG drop in the US.. ... maybe George Soros gave him some kopi money to talk tough cos' Soros has a BIG short last week??

[kennynah]

MM ...y aman...maybe france's president paying a heckova lot of alimony to his ex... need a strong euro...so tied a deal with trichet...punch up the euro... hahahaha...

[kennynah]

09 Jun 2008 10:44 GMT

** GERMANY: Germany's seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened in April to E17.7 billion, following a revised E15.3 in March (E15.4 billion), according to data released Monday by the Federal Statistical Office.

09 Jun 2008 12:08 GMT
Latvia GDP grows 3.3 percent in Q1
Riga (Thomson Financial) - In the first quarter of 2008, Latvia's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.3 percent from the same period a year ago, the Latvian central statistics office said.

However, in comparison with the fourth quarter of 2007, the GDP in Latvia declined by 4.5 percent.

In the fourth quarter of last year, the Latvian economy grew by 8 percent from the same period in 2006.

[kennynah]

12 Jun 2008 10:08 GMT
Greek 2008 March unemployment at 9 pct, up from 8 pct in February

ATHENS (Thomson Financial) - Greek March 2008 unemployment came in at 9 percent, up from 8 percent in February, said the National Statistics Service (NSS).

In March 2007 the unemployment figure was 9.5 percent.

The NSS noted unemployment for women in March was down to 12.7 percent from 14.2 percent in 2007, while unemployment for men edged higher to 6.3 percent from 6.2 percent in March 2007.

The March unemployment rate for those aged between 15 to 24 years came in at 27.1 percent, up from 25.6 percent for the same period in 2007.

Diego Iscaro, senior international economist at Global Insight Limited explained: "The figures show that the economy is still creating jobs, which is good news. Indeed, the pace of employment growth actually accelerated from a contraction of 0.2 percent during March 2007 to 1.7 percent in March this year. But the main question is for how long will this be the case?"

Iscaro forecast: "We currently expect that weaker growth stemming from an increasingly negative international environment, higher interest rates and rising inflation, will weigh down on firms' employment decisions".

The senior economist underlined that employment is a lagged variable, and "we should start to see a deceleration, but not a collapse, in employment growth during the next quarters".

[kennynah]

13 Jun 2008 06:15 GMT
German May final CPI up 0.6 pct vs April, up 3.0 pct year-on-year

WIESBADEN, Germany (Thomson Financial) - Consumer prices in Germany rose 0.6 percent in May from April and were up 3.0 percent from a year earlier, according to final figures from the Federal Statistics Office.

The figures confirmed the preliminary estimates given by the Statistics Office on May 28.

The Statistics Office said the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) rose 0.7 percent in May from April and increased 3.1 percent year-on-year, slightly higher than the preliminary estimates of 0.6 percent and 3.0 percent respectively.


13 Jun 2008 06:15 GMT
European May new car registrations down 7.8 pct yr-on-yr

BRUSSELS (Thomson Financial) - New car registrations for European Union countries along with Iceland, Norway and Switzerland fell 7.8 percent in May from a year earlier to 1,334,081 units, affected by one less working day and soaring oil prices, European automobile association ACEA said.

Among individual European carmakers, Daimler AG plunged 13.2 percent, Volkswagen AG dropped by 8.1 percent, PSA Peugeot-Citroen group fell 7.9 percent, Renault SA was 7.7 percent lower, Fiat SpA was down 4.5 percent, and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG lost 4.4 percent.

Among other carmakers, Honda Motor Co plummeted 21.7 percent, Toyota Motor Corp group dropped 21.6 percent, and General Motors Corp fell 5.4 percent, while Nissan Motor Co rose 8.4 percent.


13 Jun 2008 06:30 GMT(see update below)
FRANCE DATA: Bank of France sees French 2Q GDP up 0.2% q/q (rev +0.3%)

--May business sentiment 97 after April 100
--Industry seen expanding slightly in coming months
--May industry activity declined with exception of agriculture
--New order flows lower; order books slightly lighter, still above
normal
--May sa real retail sales +0.2% m/m; nsa +4.5% y/y

(updated)
13 Jun 2008 06:50 GMT
Bank of France cuts Q2 GDP growth estimate to 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent

PARIS (Thomson Financial) - The Bank of France has estimated French second quarter GDP growth at 0.2 percent, based on its monthly survey of business leaders.

The bank cut the estimate by 0.1 points compared with the estimate it made last month.

The business sentiment index, also based on the survey, eased to 97 in May from a revised 100 in April. Last month, the bank said the April reading was 101.

According to the survey, industrial activity decreased in May.

New orders in May decreased slightly thanks to a reduction in demand in France and abroad, the bank said. Order books maintained higher than average levels, the Bank said.

Inventories of final goods are close to targeted levels, and the Bank said it forecasts a slight progression in activity for the coming months.