Europe - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Oct 08)

Re: Europe - Economic Data & News

Postby financecaptain » Tue Oct 07, 2008 8:36 am

HengHeng wrote:i sense a potential uprising of socialism in a different form but still socialism or some hilter sure come out during this times.


Interesting that HH brought out this issue on socialism. People are now questioning the issue of Wall Street capitalisim prevailing in the last 7-8 years that accumulated this economic mess that we are experiencing right now. Of course at one time this form of capitalisim was highly envied by everyone until now.

Perhaps a better model is a form of economic socialism like in Europe and the Far East that is less extreme than that on the Wall Street. Everyone is going back to basics again .... after one of the biggest party in the world. It is like a wheel .... here we go again.
User avatar
financecaptain
Foreman
 
Posts: 286
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 3:49 pm

Re: Europe - Economic Data & News

Postby LenaHuat » Tue Oct 07, 2008 6:25 pm

Now Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Lloyds are mired in quicksand. This is the precipice :twisted:
Please be forewarned that you are reading a post by an otiose housewife. ImageImage**Image**Image@@ImageImageImage
User avatar
LenaHuat
Big Boss
 
Posts: 3229
Joined: Thu May 08, 2008 9:35 am

Re: Europe - Economic Data & News

Postby LenaHuat » Tue Oct 07, 2008 8:43 pm

Iceland (population 300,000) is tottering on the brink of national bankruptcy. An IMF team has arrived and is assessing the situation. Russia has offered to lend it US$5.4b.

Never hve I witnessed this. It's Financial World War 1 :!:
Please be forewarned that you are reading a post by an otiose housewife. ImageImage**Image**Image@@ImageImageImage
User avatar
LenaHuat
Big Boss
 
Posts: 3229
Joined: Thu May 08, 2008 9:35 am

Re: Europe - Economic Data & News

Postby iam802 » Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:10 pm

a very important lesson here.

a country can go bankrupt too!
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

TA and Options stuffs on InvestIdeas:
The Ichimoku Thread | Option Strategies Thread | Japanese Candlesticks Thread
User avatar
iam802
Big Boss
 
Posts: 6353
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 1:14 am

Re: Europe - Economic Data & News

Postby blid2def » Sat Oct 11, 2008 10:35 pm

Link: http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/t ... g?tid=true

Why Iceland is Melting

by Megan Barnett Oct 9 2008
The country's short days are going to seem even darker and colder this winter.

... snip snip ...

Iceland, it turns out, was run like an overleveraged hedge fund. A booming stock market and expanding economy led it to overplay its tiny little hand in the big international game of banking poker. It borrowed heavily from international sources, and it poured money into investments both domestically and abroad. Its three largest banks, Kaupthing, Landsbanki, and Glitnir quintupled in size since 2004, and Bloomberg estimates they now hold assets worth 12 times Iceland's gross domestic product.

To put that in the perspective of our own struggling economy, that's the same as if the combined assets of Citigroup, Bank of America, and J.P. Morgan Chase totaled some $160 trillion. Instead, they total around $7.4 trillion.

What's happened now that the global credit crunch has hit Iceland's lenders is that its banks can't cover their debts, and the country's economic structure is not equipped to repay them either. Its population is a mere 320,000—just a touch bigger in size than Cincinnati, Ohio.

"What we have learned from this whole exercise is that it is not wise for a small country to try to take a leading role in international banking," Geir Haarde, Iceland's prime minister, told reporters yesterday. "We are too small to sustain a banking system that has become too big."

... snip snip ...


Hmm... I've often longed to visit Iceland...
blid2def
Permanent Loafer
 
Posts: 2344
Joined: Tue May 06, 2008 7:03 pm

Re: Europe - Economic Data & News

Postby millionairemind » Fri Oct 17, 2008 12:46 pm

IMF ready to help stabilise Ukraine
By Krishna Guha in Washington, Stefan Wagstyl
Published: October 16 2008 19:20 | Last updated: October 17 2008 01:00

The global credit crisis took a fresh turn on Thursday as Hungary and Ukraine approached international institutions for support in an effort to avoid following Iceland into financial turmoil.


The moves came as figures showed that US industrial production plummeted 2.8 per cent in September, its largest monthly decline since 1974, though the decline was aggravated by hurricane disruption and a strike at Boeing, the aerospace company.

The Philadelphia Fed survey of regional business conditions – which was positive in September – plunged to minus 37.5 in October, its worst reading since 1980, suggesting that the economy deteriorated this month.

The mood in Europe was unsettled as Budapest received a €5bn credit facility from the European Central Bank and Kiev said it was seeking an IMF loan of up to $14bn to “stabilise Ukraine’s financial system”. It was the first time in the 15-month credit crunch that multilateral agencies such as the International Monetary Fund had taken steps that are likely to lead to a bail-out of continental European countries – a clear sign of the acute difficulties debtor nations face in raising finance from credit-starved ­markets.

FT interview
The International Monetary Fund is on an emergency footing and will do everything in its power to support vulnerable emerging economies caught up in the global financial crisis, its chief, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, vowed on Thursday.


“The crisis is now hurting a lot of emerging markets,” he told the Financial Times in an interview. “Some of them may face balance of payments problems.”

“Many countries seem to be experiencing problems because of the repatriation of private capital by foreign investors or the reduction of credit lines from foreign banks,” Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMF managing director, told the Financial Times. “We are ready to support these economies and we are in discussions with a number of them.”

Hungary’s problems stem from foreign currency loans and big budget deficits. Ukraine’s banks face difficulties repaying foreign credits as the current account is widening. Authorities in both countries insisted they were not in difficulties.

The eastern European moves came as fears of a global recession triggered unprecedented volatility in the markets.

The S&P 500 closed up 4.3 per cent, after having been down as much as 4.6 per cent. Wall Street’s fear gauge – the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or the Vix – hit a record 81.17 during the day.

The Federal Reserve said its balance sheet had swelled another $179bn in the past week, driven by a sharp increase in lending through its credit ­auctions and to foreign central banks in the shape of offshore dollar loans.

The Fed’s balance sheet now stands at $1,772bn – double its size a year ago.

Earlier, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 11.4 per cent, its worst one-day decline since the 1987 stock market crash. The FTSE 100 in London closed down 5.3 per cent at a five-and-a-half year low.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
User avatar
millionairemind
Big Boss
 
Posts: 8183
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 8:50 am
Location: The Matrix

Re: Europe - Economic Data & News

Postby millionairemind » Fri Oct 17, 2008 12:58 pm

The mkt has found a way :)
Market Scan
Europe's New Circle Of Trust
Lionel Laurent, 10.16.08, 10:30 AM ET

LONDON - In these terrifying times, you might assume that banks have given up on lending to one another. But banks of a feather flock together, and on Thursday eight cooperative banks across Europe--including Credit Agricole in France, DZ Bank in Germany and Dutch lender Rabobank--decided to set up an exclusive $20.2 billion interbank lending club.

The club, dubbed "Unico," comes at a fragile time for the banking sector. The lack of lending and liquidity within the industry has recently proven fatal for lenders such as Fortis (other-otc: FORSY - news - people ), Dexia and Washington Mutual in the U.S. Governments across the world have raced to provide bailout packages in a bid to ease stubbornly interbank lending rates. Now it seems these eight major European banks have decided to leave nothing to chance, giving one another the seal of approval based on their "safe-haven" cooperative status.

"These banks have their cooperative status as a binding factor," said Axel Pierron, a Paris-based analyst with Celent. "They frequently have very strong access to retail deposits, and a good domestic positioning." But he told Forbes.com that the danger with such clubs was that it left other banks out in the cold, promoting further possible fragmentation.

The news did not do much for shares of Credit Agricole, which were still down by 4.4%, to 10.52 euros, during afternoon trading in Paris. After all, even the creation of a reliable "circle of trust" might not save Credit Agricole from a major economic slowdown or the need to raise extra funding. But it could at least serve to bolster confidence in these banks from the point of view of depositors and other lenders.

"This initiative underlines the strength of cooperative banking for its customers and the strong mutual understanding between the Unico partners," said Bert Heemskerk, chairman of Rabobank and top dog at Unico. "Complementing the measures of governments and regulators, this initiative from leading European banks aims at restoring confidence in the banking sector from within."

This is not quite convincing--Celent's Pierron noted that there was only one cooperative bank from each European country signing up for the club, an obvious attempt at avoiding competition. But with any luck, it will be a confidence-building measure that does not destabilize interbank lending any further.
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
User avatar
millionairemind
Big Boss
 
Posts: 8183
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 8:50 am
Location: The Matrix

Re: Europe - Economic Data & News

Postby millionairemind » Sat Oct 18, 2008 7:40 pm

Now they can cut interest rate to zero :P

Britain faces deflation for first time since 1960
Britain will slump into deflation next year for the first time in half a century, experts have warned.

By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor
Last Updated: 10:51PM BST 17 Oct 2008

For the first time since 1960, the cost of living will start to shrink next year, in a worrying parallel of the Japanese "disease" of the 1990s, according to new research.

The news comes amid growing speculation that the Bank of England will soon be forced to cut borrowing costs to 2pc or below, taking them to their lowest level since it was founded in 1694.

The Monetary Policy Committee last week unexpectedly cut rates by a half percentage point to 4.5pc in the face of the financial crisis. However, there is also growing evidence that inflation, which has risen above 5pc in recent months, is set for a dramatic fall. The Retail Price Index – the most comprehensive measure of UK high street prices, will drop at an almost unprecedented rate to -2pc by the second half of next year, according to new research from Fathom Consulting.

It said the fall was largely due to the drop in mortgage costs and house prices, which together form a large part of the RPI. However, lower food and energy prices would also play an important role. Since modern comparable records began in 1956, the RPI has dropped into negative territory only once, in the late 1950s and early 1960s, but it only dropped as far as a rate of -0.5pc.

Andrew Brigden, economist at Fathom Consulting, said: "This does have worrying implications – particularly if it heralded a general period of deflation. The risk is we have a rerun of Japan because you simply can't [cut interest rates] to below zero."

Japan suffered almost a decade of deflation and falling economic growth in the 1990s after its debt-fuelled economic bubble burst with painful consequences. Despite cutting official interest rates to zero and pumping cash into the economy, the Bank of Japan was unable to pull prices back up into positive territory for years. However, Fathom predicts RPI will drop below zero for only a few months.

Whereas high inflation tends to encourage borrowing, deflation encourages saving and, as a result, discourages companies from investing and spending today what they could save for tomorrow.

Fathom's prediction is based on the assumption that the Bank of England cuts interest rates to 2pc within a year. Although markets anticipate borrowing costs falling to only 3.5pc, a growing cohort of economists think it will be forced into taking more drastic action. Mr Brigden said if oil prices came back below $70 a barrel and house prices fall at an even faster rate, the level of RPI inflation could fall as low as -3pc and remain in negative territory for a year.

Although Fathom does not expect the Consumer Price Index – the measure targeted by the Bank's MPC – to drop into negative territory, Prof Peter Spencer, of the Ernst & Young Item Club, said such an eventuality was not out of the question.

"This time next year we're looking at all of these huge increases in bills coming out of the index, and then potentially falling," he said. "CPI will go viciously negative – it's looking increasingly likely that it drops below target. It could easily go into negative territory, along with RPI."
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
User avatar
millionairemind
Big Boss
 
Posts: 8183
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 8:50 am
Location: The Matrix

Re: Europe - Economic Data & News

Postby kennynah » Sat Oct 18, 2008 7:59 pm

I do expect the cuts to cone fast n furious across many European economies although I'm not so confident the Fed will follow this monetary policy in near term
Options Strategies & Discussions .(Trading Discipline : The Science of Constantly Acting on Knowledge Consistently - kennynah).Investment Strategies & Ideas

Image..................................................................<A fool gives full vent to his anger, but a wise man keeps himself under control-Proverbs 29:11>.................................................................Image
User avatar
kennynah
Lord of the Lew Lian
 
Posts: 16005
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 2:00 am
Location: everywhere.. and nowhere..

Re: Europe - Economic Data & News

Postby millionairemind » Sun Oct 19, 2008 8:23 pm

Another one needing rescue.
Dutch prepare to pump $12 billion into ING: report
Sun Oct 19, 2008 7:10am EDT
LONDON/AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Dutch financial group ING is in talks with the Dutch government about a state-backed cash injection estimated to be worth up to 9 billion euros ($12.12 billion), the Sunday Times reported.
The Netherlands' biggest listed bank, which said on Friday that it was about to announce its first-ever quarterly loss, is expected to announce a deal in the next 24 hours, the paper reported.

ING's Chief Executive Michel Tilmant was in talks with the Dutch central bank all day yesterday negotiating a deal, the Sunday Times said.
Fully story
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/id ... CB20081019
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
User avatar
millionairemind
Big Boss
 
Posts: 8183
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 8:50 am
Location: The Matrix

PreviousNext

Return to Archives

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

cron