Europe - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Oct 08)

[kennynah]

15 May 2008 07:31 GMT
Spanish Fin Min: German GDP Figures "Very Good" For Euro Zone
BRUSSELS -(Dow Jones)- The surprisingly strong performance of the German economy in the first three months of this year, and may help compensate for slowing growth in the euro zone's southern members, Spanish Finance Minister Pedro Solbes said Thursday.

German statistics agency De Statis earlier said the euro zone's largest member economy grew by 1.5% from the last quarter of 2007, more than twice the expected rate of 0.7%. Compared with the first quarter of 2007, the economy grew by 2.6%.

"There are very good figures from Germany in the context of the euro area," Solbes told reporters as he arrived at a conference on the euro. "It may compensate for other parts such as Spain where the rate of growth has been lower."

Spain has been one of the euro zone's fastest growing economies over the past decade, but is slowing rapidly as the credit crunch cools activity in the key construction sector.

"Southern countries are in a more difficult situation," Solbes said.

[kennynah]

15 May 2008 10:43 GMT

Finnish March GDP falls 3 pct on calendar effects
HELSINKI (Thomson Financial) - Finland's economy -- as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) -- shrank by 3 percent in March due to the calendar effects of the month having three fewer working days than the same period a year earlier, figures published by Statistics Finland showed.

However, if those three days are factored in, GDP for March grew by 1 percent from the year-earlier same period.

Behind the unadjusted fall was an 8 percent decline in output in the country's primary industry, made up of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors, and a 3 percent drop in secondary production.

Output in the services sector was little changed from a year ago, Statistics Finland said.

The data showed output declined by 1.5 percent in seasonally adjusted terms from February.

[kennynah]

these remarks did squat on eur/usd....which is continuing to show strength...at 1.5594 (+20bp)

oil actually spiked...127.30 (wtf !!!)

gold spot 914 (gained $14)

19 May 2008 11:16 GMT
German Econ Ministry: Econ To Slow Notably In Coming Months
BERLIN -(Dow Jones)- The German economy will slow in the coming months after experiencing the fastest growth in nearly 12 years at the beginning of the year, the German Economics Ministry said Monday, citing a weaker global economy and the strong euro as risks factors.

It also said first-quarter growth, which stood at 1.5% on the quarter, was boosted by unusually mild weather conditions.

"There are signs that the growth momentum will be weaker in the coming months," the ministry said in its May monthly report. "On the one side, we can expect the mild winter to have the counter-effect of a weaker upswing in the spring, while global economic conditions are also weighing on developments. A weaker global economy, the appreciation of the euro, continuing uncertainties in financial markets, high oil prices and strong consumer price increases have a damping effect."

As a result, growth in the second quarter is likely to be less strong then at the beginning of the year, the ministry said, adding that the euro's appreciation against the dollar is slowing export growth.

While private consumption has picked up slightly in the first quarter, "a sustainable recovery has yet to come," the ministry said.

The report also commented on the high level of oil prices, with Brent crude reaching a high of $123 a barrel May 14, saying this is "the main risk factor" for consumer price inflation.

[kennynah]

**********************

20 May 2008 06:00 GMT
GERMANY DATA: Propelled by more expensive food and energy products, German producer prices in April were much stronger than expected for a fourth month running, data released Tuesday by the Federal Statistical Office show.

The monthly surge of 1.1% took the annual rate in April to +5.2%, above all forecasts and the highest level since +5.9% in August 2006.

Without energy products -- which increased 12.6% y/y after +8.2% in March and +7.0% in February -- the annual rate would have measured +2.7%, down from +2.8% in March, the same as in February, and not too much above recent readings of +2.5% in January, +2.2% in December and +2.3% in November.

-- See details on MNI MainWire.

Swiss April PPI up 3.6 percent year-on-year

Dutch March retail sales down 3.4 pct yr-on-yr

Italy March industrial sales down 4.3 pct year-on-year; orders down 3.7 pct

German ZEW May economic expectations index -41.4 points vs -40.7 in April
MANNHEIM, Germany (Thomson Financial) - The ZEW research institute said its economic expectations index for Germany dropped to minus 41.4 points in May from minus 40.7 points in April, well above the consensus estimate.

Economists polled by Thomson Financial News had expected the index to rise to minus 38.0 points.

[kennynah]

GERMANY: ZEW Franz; My expectation is ECB will hike rates in near future

GERMANY: ZEW Franz; Agree with Weber, rate hike still on agenda

Lithuania May HICP forecast up 0.9 percent, annual inflation 12.29 percent

Portugal April PPI up 0.5 percent vs March, up 6.1 percent year-on-year

[millionairemind]

A piece of good news

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=news

TED Spread Falls to 9-Month Low, Signaling Credit Crunch Easing

By Aaron Pan and Lukanyo Mnyanda

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Lending confidence at banks rose to the highest level in more than nine months, according to a key market indicator, signaling the global credit crunch is easing.

The so-called TED spread, which measures the difference between what the U.S. government and banks pay to borrow in dollars for three months, dropped below 78 basis points for the first time since August. It held at that level as of 11:56 a.m. in London, after touching 77.7 basis points. The cost of borrowing dollars overnight dropped to the lowest level since December 2004, the British Bankers' Association said today.

The Federal Reserve has cut borrowing costs seven times since September, offered new loans to banks and provided $29 billion of financing to secure Bear Stearns Cos.' takeover by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in an effort to stave off a recession fueled by a slump in lending. The cost of borrowing began soaring last year as banks hoarded cash after the U.S. subprime- mortgage market collapsed.

``The worst of the fears about the liquidity crisis appear to be alleviating,'' said Peter Jolly, head of markets research in Sydney at NabCapital, the investment-banking arm of National Australia Bank Ltd. ``Liquidity is becoming more available ever since the bold moves by the Fed.''

The TED spread, the difference in yields on three-month U.S. Treasury bills and the three-month London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for dollars, was as wide as 2.03 percentage points in March as credit-market losses deepened. The world's financial companies have reported about $329 billion in writedowns and losses since the start of 2007.

`Healing Process'

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index of stocks has gained almost 10 percent since the TED spread reached its high for the year on March 19, as investors bet the worst of the credit squeeze is past.

``The healing process in the credit crunch has been picking up with speed,'' said David Keeble, head of fixed-income strategy at Calyon, the investment-banking arm of Credit Agricole SA, France's second-biggest bank.

The credit crunch started in July when two Bear Stearns hedge funds that invested in securities tied to U.S. subprime mortgages collapsed. The company, once the biggest underwriter of U.S. mortgage bonds, had to bail out the funds and take possession of many of the instruments.

Two-year Treasury note yields rose to the highest since January last week as signs the credit crisis is nearing an end gave investors the confidence to buy higher yielding assets. Pacific Investment Management Co., which manages the world's largest bond fund, last week advised investors to switch to company debt, which it said may benefit as policy makers seek to boost liquidity.

To contact the reporters on this story: Aaron Pan in Hong Kong at [email protected]; Lukanyo Mnyanda in London at [email protected]

[kennynah]

21 May 2008 07:17 GMT
Spain final Q1 GDP up 0.3 percent vs Q4, up 2.7 percent year-on-year
MADRID (Thomson Financial) - Spain's gross domestic product grew 0.3 percent in the first quarter from the fourth and was up 2.7 percent from a year earlier, the National Statistics Institute (INE) said.

The quarterly increase was in line with provisional data released on Feb. 20.

In the fourth quarter of last year, GDP grew 3.5 percent year-on-year.

[kennynah]

this info is for long term and macro view

22 May 2008 15:06 GMT
IMF says not changing growth forecasts at this stage despite oil price rise
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The International Monetary Fund said it is not changing its forecasts for global growth at this stage despite the rise in oil prices to levels above $135 per barrel.

The IMF last month forecast global growth of 3.7 percent in 2008 and 3.8 percent in 2009.

[kennynah]

watch for impact in cable and ftse
****************

UK: UK data at 0830GMT sees the index of services data as well as the second release of Q1 GDP, which is expected to remain unrevised at 0.4% q/q and 2.5% y/y.

[kennynah]

FRANCE DATA: April sa consumer spending on mfg gds -0.8% m/m, +0.4% y/y

- Below all analysts' forecasts; MNI survey median +0.6% m/m

- April spending down 1.1% vs 1Q average, which rose 0.3% q/q

- March spending revised to -1.0% m/m from -1.7% m/m