US - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

Re: US Economic Data & News

Postby HengHeng » Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:29 am

well for us , we can't do naked shorts anyway .. so i think it is pretty difficult for us to see such big price movements.

Well our listed companies are relatively smaller than theirs . It is not too big to crash. .. so i thnk it is slightly diff.
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Re: US Economic Data & News

Postby kennynah » Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:33 am

millionairemind wrote:Wonder if our gahmen will come in to protect us if this happens??



waaaaahhhhaaahahahahahaha...... :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: ......(after 5 mins of this..) :roll: :roll:
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Re: US Economic Data & News

Postby kennynah » Thu Jul 17, 2008 8:56 pm

Weekly Jobless Claims Rise Less Than Forecast
7/17/2008 8:54 AM ET


(RTTNews) - The number of people filing first-time unemployment claims advanced last week, according to government statistics released Thursday. This represented a rebound from the previous week, which had seen a large decline.

Image

The U.S. Department of Labor revealed that initial jobless claims came in at 366,000 for the week ended July 12. This was up 18,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 348,000.

The previous week saw a substantial drop in jobless claims, with many analysts blaming issues surrounding estimates made in the seasonal-adjustment process. Given this sharp fall in the July 5th week - which saw claims slip a revised 56,000 - most were predicting an increase last week.

The actual advance for the July 12th week was less than economists had predicted. On average, economists were looking for an increase of over 30,000 for the week.

The 4-week moving average for initial claims, a statistic that flattens out week-to-week variations, came in at 376,000,down from 381,000 the week before.

Thursday's data showed a decline in the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment help. The report said that continuing claims slipped 81,000 to a level of 3.122 million for the week ended July 5, the most recent week for which the government has data.
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Re: US Economic Data & News

Postby millionairemind » Sat Jul 19, 2008 10:58 am

Fed's Stern Says Rate Rise Can't Wait for Crisis End (Update2)
By Vivien Lou Chen

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve shouldn't wait until financial and housing markets stabilize to raise interest rates, central bank policy maker Gary Stern said.

``We can't wait until we clearly observe the financial markets at normal, the economy growing robustly, and so on and so forth, before we reverse course,'' Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said in an interview today. ``Our actions will affect the economy in the future, not at the moment.''

The comments by Stern, a voter on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, reinforced traders' forecasts for a rate increase by year-end. Stern indicated that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's rescue plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will help prevent a deeper housing and economic slump.

``We're pretty well-positioned for the downside risks we might encounter from here,'' said Stern, 63, the Fed's longest- serving policy maker. ``I worry a little bit more about the prospects for inflation.''

The bank president compared the credit crunch to the one in the early 1990s, which restrained economic growth for almost three years. That's a more sanguine assessment than others have. The International Monetary Fund has said it's the worst financial shock since the Great Depression. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said it's the most intense in more than half a century.

Rate Outlook


Traders' estimates of a rate increase in October rose to 64 percent after Stern's remarks were published, from 58 percent earlier today.

Stern dissented three times in favor of raising rates in 1996. He is the only FOMC member who's served with three chairmen: Paul Volcker, Greenspan and Ben S. Bernanke. He became the Minneapolis Fed president in 1985.

His comments today underscore that ``the Fed has grown more uncomfortable with the inflation situation,'' Tony Crescenzi, chief bond strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, wrote in a note to clients.

Stern spoke two days after government figures showed consumer prices surged 5 percent over the past year, the biggest jump since 1991. Excluding food and fuel, so-called core prices rose 2.4 percent, higher than the 2.1 percent average over the last five years.

`Too High'

``Headline inflation is clearly too high,'' Stern said. He added that he's concerned that will feed through to core prices and public expectations for inflation.

As long as energy and food costs level off, core inflation ought to slow over the next year, Stern said.

Crude oil has surged 73 percent in the past 12 months, and rose to a record of $147.27 a barrel on July 11. Worldwide, prices for food commodities such as wheat and rice were 43 percent higher in April than a year earlier, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

Stern declined to say when policy makers may shift toward raising rates.

``We're going to want to, in my opinion, reverse some of those interest-rate reductions,'' he said. ``I don't think there's any question about that. But exactly when depends on how things evolve from here.''

The FOMC halted its series of seven reductions last month, after reducing the benchmark rate to 2 percent, from 5.25 percent last September.

Traders anticipate the Fed will boost its main rate at least a quarter point from 2 percent in October, after keeping borrowing costs unchanged in August and September. There's a 79 percent probability of a move by year-end, futures prices show.

Bernanke's View

Minutes of the Fed's June 24-25 gathering, released July 15, showed that some Fed officials favored an increase in rates ``very soon.'' Bernanke this week said there are risks to both inflation and growth, abandoning the FOMC's June assessment that the threat of a ``substantial'' downturn had receded.

``This is a very challenging policy environment,'' Stern said today. ``I don't think we ought to pretend that'' an end to the credit crisis ``won't take some time,'' he said.

The Fed on July 13 offered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac access to direct loans from the central bank in case the firms needed the financing before Congress acts on Paulson's rescue plan. The Treasury chief is seeking power to make unlimited loans to and purchase equity in the companies if needed.

Stern said the Treasury proposals are ``clearly designed to bolster Fannie and Freddie, and to address'' risks the firms' troubles pose to the credit crisis and housing slump.
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Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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SEC Eases Short Rule

Postby ishak » Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:18 pm

Bloomberg
July 19, 2008

The US Securities and Exchange Commission exempted market makers in stocks from the emergency rule aimed at preventing manipulation in shares of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and 17 Wall Street firms.

The SEC granted relief, for the equity and option traders responsible for pairing off orders, from a rule that bars the use of abusive tactics when betting on a drop in share prices.

Exchange officials said restrictions would inhibit the flow of transactions and might raise costs for investors.

"Today's amendments, which were contemplated in Tuesday's order, provide all of the new investor protections against naked short sales while assuring continuing liquidity and best execution in our markets," SEC spokesman John Nester said in a statement.

The rule takes effect July 21.
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Re: US Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:54 pm

Index of US leading indicators dips 0.1%

WASHINGTON - A forward-looking index of economic indicators fell 0.1 per cent in June, suggesting difficult conditions for the remainder of the year, the Conference Board reported on Monday.

The small decline followed a revised drop of 0.2 per cent in May in the index of leading economic indicators from the business research group. The prior estimate was a gain of 0.1 per cent.

'The domestic economy is showing no sign of strength,'
said Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board.

'The deep financial crisis; a prolonged, intense slump in housing; high petrol and food prices; weak consumer confidence and a weak dollar are all combining to produce unrelenting downward pressure on economic activity.'


He added: 'This is also why it wouldn't take much to push the economy so that it's even weaker in the second half of 2008.'

Other indicators in the survey were mixed. The coincident index of current activity edged up 0.1 per cent and the lagging index fell 0.3 per cent. -- AFP
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Re: US Economic Data & News

Postby kennynah » Mon Jul 21, 2008 11:00 pm

ok...anyone is very certain about the new SEC regulations on SHORTing?

particularly, is it true that ALL shorting is disallowed or is this only applicable to selected counters?


((edited to add below))

w : tx for the quick response...ok...referred to pg16 posts... anyways, GR is able to confirm the counters that cant be shorted now...from his platform..
Last edited by kennynah on Mon Jul 21, 2008 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: US Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Mon Jul 21, 2008 11:06 pm

Selected counters only for now..

And it is "naked short-selling" that is not allowed. Short selling is still allowed.

And short-selling must be on uptick only..

Please see page 16 of this thread - July 16 post
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Re: US Economic Data & News

Postby kennynah » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:11 am

ok...this is hot from the oven....from my brokerage

these stocks CANNOT be short without first confirming borrowing first...

this is immediately effective 0001am EDT(US Time) Monday 21 Jul 08 and lasts for a week until 2359 29Jul08...

BNP, BAC, BSC, C, CS, Daiwa Securities, Deutsche Bank, Alliance, GS, RBS, HSBC, HSI, JPM, LEH, MER, Mizuo Financials, MS, UBS, FRE, FMN


so, make sure you can borrow first before you short any of the above counters...else, u get shot !!
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Re: US Economic Data & News

Postby HengHeng » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:20 am

ya ... goot .. .. sure got upside potential.
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