US - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Jul 08)

[kennynah]

23 May 2008 14:09 GMT


S&P replaces members of indexes
NEW YORK (AP) - Standard & Poor's said Friday it has made changes in the components of its S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 indexes.

Intuitive Surgical Inc. is replacing Bear Stearns Cos. in the S&P 500. Intuitive Surgical was previously part of the S&P MidCap400.

The Shaw Group Inc. will replace Intuitive Surgical in the S&P MidCap400. II-VI Inc. will replace The Shaw Group in the S&P SmallCap 600.

The changes tied to Bear Stearns are a results of its pending acquisition by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and will be completed when the deal closes, possibly by June 2.

Olympic Steel Inc. will replace X-Rite Inc. in the S&P SmallCap 600, and Magellan Health Services Inc. will replace Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. in the S&P SmallCap 600 as well.

Bright Horizons is being acquired by Bain Capital Partners and will be replaced once the deal is completed. Olympic Steel will replace X-Rite after the market closes Tuesday.

[kennynah]

about the housing sales figure released...

demand and supply at play....suspected that the better numbers could be due to foreclosed houses being bought up...which is good...

********
23 May 2008 16:01 GMT


BULLET: US DATA REACT: Economists at JPM say some of the.....

US DATA REACT: Economists at JPM say some of the supposed strength in existing home sales could be coming from foreclosure sales, which would be counted anytime a foreclosed home is sold through a multiple listing service.

Early in the year the National Association of Realtors estimated that foreclosed homes as a share of total MLS listings was in
the high single-digits.

While no official survey has been done since then, the NAR has said that anecdotal evidence suggests this share has been increasing, they point out.

[winston]

California Home Prices Drop 32% Amid Foreclosures, Realtors Say

By Dan Levy

May 23 (Bloomberg) -- California home prices tumbled 32 percent in April from a year earlier as ``distressed'' properties and a lack of financing cut demand, the state realtors group said.

The median existing home price fell to $403,870, the California Association of Realtors said in a statement today. Sales increased 2.5 percent, ending 30 months of consecutive year-on-year declines. Homes priced under $500,000 accounted for 64 percent of sales compared with 40 percent a year earlier.

California had the second-highest U.S. foreclosure rate in April, one for every 204 households, and the most foreclosure filings for the 16th consecutive month, RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of default data, reported on May 14. Sales increased in northern and southern California last month as buyers purchased discounted properties that had been in some stage of default, DataQuick Information Systems said this week.

``Both tighter underwriting standards and the ongoing effects of the credit/liquidity crunch continue to constrain sales,'' William Brown, president of the association, said in the statement.

[kennynah]

sometimes, mkt ignores data...like tonight... indexes in +ve zone even with this weak data released...

**********************************

27 May 2008 17:54 GMT

May consumer confidence falls to near 16-year low
NEW YORK (AP) - Soaring gas prices and weakening job prospects left shoppers gloomier about the economy in May, sending a key barometer of consumer sentiment to its lowest level in almost 16 years.

The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 57.2, down from a revised 62.8 in April. Economists surveyed by Thomson Financial/IFR had expected a reading of 60.

The May reading marks the fifth straight month of decline and is the lowest since the index registered 54.6 in October 1992 when the economy was coming out of a recession.

Economists closely watch sentiment readings since consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.

"Weakening business and job conditions coupled with growing pessimism about the short-term future have further depleted consumers' confidence in the overall state of the economy," Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, said in a statement.

[kennynah]

maybe this is a confirmation on a lesser likelihood that a further cut can be expected in the near term...

27 May 2008 18:15 GMT

Regional Fed banks opposed discount rate cut 7-5 before April 30 decision
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - There was a clear seven-five split among the twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks against cutting the discount rate in the weeks leading up to the Fed's April 30 rate cut decision, according to minutes released today.

The Federal Open Market Committee cut its Fed funds rate target to a quarter point to 2.00% then. And the Fed Board of Governors, which approves the discount rate for lending to banks separately, voted for a quarter point cut to 2.25%.

Before the April 30 meeting, seven banks opposed any cut and one of the five favoring a cut wanted it to be half a percentage point, not a quarter.

Directors of the Boston Fed had voted April 24 to cut the discount rate 0.50 percentage point to 2.00%.

The New York Fed directors voted for a 0.25 point cut on April 18, followed by the Atlanta, Cleveland and San Francisco banks voting for the same cut on April 24.

Regional Fed banks opposing any cut in the discount rate included Minneapolis and Philadelphia on April 17, followed by Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, Richmond and St. Louis on the 24th.

The Fed Board held a preliminary discussion on the discount rate requests on April 28, but decided not to do anything until the scheduled April 30 announcement.

The four banks wanting a quarter-point cut had noted that "significant downside risks to economic growth remained, including the potential for a further weakening of labor markets and the possibility that the contraction in the housing sector would be more deeper and more prolonged than currently expected."

Although some of the directors thought recent inflation news had been "encouraging," they still worried about "challenges to price stability" including commodity prices.

They saw a 0.25 point cut as balancing the growth and inflation risks.

The Boston Fed directors who voted for a 0.50 point cut were also concerned about both growth and inflation, but the minutes said they thought "the greater economic slack associated with a slowdown in the real economy would moderate inflationary pressures."

Directors of the seven banks which opposed any rate cut "viewed concerns about the outlook for inflation as offsetting concerns about the subdued outlook for the real economy," the minutes said. They thought standing pat was appropriate "in part because of the significant lag before the full effects of past monetary policy easing would be realized."

In the end, at the April 30 Fed meeting "there was a consensus" for a 0.25 point reduction in the discount rate to 2.25%, which maintained the 0.25 point margin over the Fed funds rate target.

[millionairemind]

Futures moved up quite a bit after this news.. not sure if it will stay that way..

Wake up tomorrow then see..

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/S ... iteid=mktw

U.S. April durable goods orders down 0.5%

By Greg Robb
Last update: 8:30 a.m. EDT May 28, 2008Print RSS Disable Live Quotes

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Orders for U.S.-made durable goods sank in April, falling 0.5% on weaker demand for airplanes, vehicles, and computers the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Excluding the 8.0% decrease in transportation goods, orders rose 2.5%, the biggesst gain since July 2007. The decrease in overall orders was much smaller than the expected 2.8% drop forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. A sharp gain in electronics orders partially offset the weakness in other areas. So-called core durable goods orders rose 4.2% in April. Shipments rose 1.2% in April. Inventories rose 0.5% while unfilled orders rose 1.0%.

[millionairemind]

Think this will spook the mkt???

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=news

Fed Should Increase Rates If Inflation Accelerates, Fisher Says

By Vivien Lou Chen

May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said he expects the central bank would raise the benchmark U.S. interest rate should the public begin to expect greater gains in consumer prices.

``If inflationary developments and, more important, inflation expectations continue to worsen, I would expect a change of course in monetary policy to occur sooner rather than later, even in the face of an anemic'' economy, Fisher said yesterday in a speech in San Francisco.

Fed bank presidents, including Gary Stern of Minneapolis and Thomas Hoenig of Kansas City, have expressed growing concern this month about rising prices. Fisher, 59, is the only member of the Federal Open Market Committee to dissent three times from decisions to lower the overnight bank-lending rate, favoring either no change or less aggressive reduction.

``I don't know a single person on the committee that isn't concerned about inflation,'' the Dallas Fed chief said after his speech to the Commonwealth Club of California. ``The question is, `what is the right treatment?' That is subject to debate.''

Fed policy makers estimated in April that consumer prices, minus food and energy costs, will rise this year by 2.2 percent to 2.4 percent, up from a range of 2 percent to 2.2 percent in January forecasts, according to central bank figures released on May 21. U.S. gross domestic product will increase by 0.3 percent to 1.2 percent this year, down from the 1.3 percent to 2 percent growth Fed officials predicted in January.

Anemic Growth

The U.S. ``is in for a period of anemic economic activity'' that will probably last ``for a while,'' Fisher said after his speech. When the economy quickens, the U.S. may be ``encumbered by a higher rate of inflation than we ordinarily would like to have.''

Most central bank officials considered the decision to cut the federal funds rate last month as ``a close call,'' according to minutes of the April 29-30 meeting. Fisher and Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed, preferred no change because of the ``more worrisome development'' in inflation, the records show.

Futures traders estimate a 96 percent probability of no change in the benchmark interest rate at the Fed's next meeting in June. The Federal Reserve has lowered the main U.S. interest rate by 2.25 percentage points this year, the most aggressive cuts in two decades.

Fisher devoted most of his speech to the federal government's long-term fiscal situation, which he called ``a frightful storm brewing in the form of untethered government debt.''

`Debauching of Credit'

``Unless we take steps to deal with it, the long-term fiscal situation of the federal government will be unimaginably more devastating to our economic prosperity than the subprime debacle and the recent debauching of credit markets,'' he said.

Minneapolis Fed bank President Gary Stern said in a speech yesterday in Altoona, Wisconsin that inflation is too high and the central bank will need to consider the timing and magnitude of any reversal in interest rate reductions.

To contact the reporter on this story: Vivien Lou Chen in San Francisco at [email protected]

Last Updated: May 29, 2008 00:03 EDT

[kennynah]

29 May 2008 10:14 GMT
Ahead of the Bell: Economists expect higher 1Q GDP
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Commerce Department is expected to increase its estimate of first-quarter economic growth Thursday due to stronger than expected non-residential construction spending and greater exports.

Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR expect the department to report that gross domestic product in the January to March quarter grew at a 1 percent annual rate, up from the 0.6 percent estimate it issued last month.

An increase in first quarter growth would likely buttress the opinion of many economists that the United States, while experiencing a slowdown, may skirt a recession.

Thursday's figure is the second of three estimates of quarterly GDP issued by the department's Bureau of Economic Analaysis. GDP is the value of all goods and services produced within the United States.

Last month's estimate was the "advance" figure, while Thursday's is the "preliminary" estimate. The final number will be released next month.

In addition to exports and construction spending, recent upward revisions to March retail sales could also boost the GDP figure, economists at Nomura Securities said.

[kennynah]

29 May 2008 10:14 GMT
Ahead of the Bell: Unemployment Benefits
WASHINGTON (AP) - Government data due out Thursday is expected to show that initial claims filed for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week after dropping in the prior period.

Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR forecast that claims edged up to 370,000 for the week that ended May 24. The Labor Department is scheduled to release the data at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

The department last week said applications for unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 to 365,000, which was better than analysts had expected.

But the government's four-week moving average of new claims, which smooths out week-to-week fluctuations, last week rose by 5,000 to 372,250.

Several companies announced job cuts this week:

-- Biopharmaceutical company Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc. said it will cut about 100 jobs, including those of its chief financial officer and other executives, as part of a reorganization designed to reduce costs. The layoffs are expected to be completed by early summer.

-- American Axle and Manufacturing Holdings Inc. said it will cut its U.S. hourly work force by 2,000 due to a new contract ratified last week by the United Auto Workers union.

-- The Detroit News reported that some Ford Motor Co. employees were told of involuntary layoffs that may result in cutting more than 2,000 salaried workers as the automaker attempts to keep its restructuring plan on track. A Ford spokesman said no final decisions have been made about layoffs.

[kennynah]

US gdp 0.9% (upward revision)...as expected...in line... not much immediate reaction to index futures...

weekly jobless claims...up 4K to 372K...lesser than expetced 6K

4 week mobing average down 2.5K, to 370,500